if you are confident in your due diligence and the conservative values placed on assets and INCLUDING the cash, then I'd suggest you would be foolish if your lack of patience got the best of you..If you were even to come to the view of a POSSIBLE BK filing (that I can not even conceive of) then there is no way equity is wiped out..NO WAY !! I suggest you might review American Airlines and their chap 11 filing..Equity which stood at 25 cents when I screwed up and DID NOT pull the trigger in buying,,,now stands around $50 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 200 bagger from about four years ago..
who knows..Not paying something due SUNDAY is a material event in my view, so if not this week itself should it be paid during the week, then soon after Sunday by my figuring...Nobody expects positive earnings, so I could care less about them..
guarantee, it will react !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! as for the $2 you mention and hope for, that's an 8 bagger from here....But also note that RJ had a 4.50 target in June.(stock hit 3.40)....Of course before oil dropped, so you may well be in the ball park of a short term possibility with that $2 number..
if you are intellectually honest, we're still waiting on the value of the P-1's Mr. Rise....Do you have an answer ??? Does any of the hacks have an answer.?..You know who I refer to..What's 13.5 MILLION P-1 reserves being pumped worth at today's $60 Brent pricing ? Apply a reasonable discount..I applied FIFTY PERCENT discount and that asset itself is worth $405,000,000 AFTER BEING DISCOUNTED..Is that number LARGER Than BPZ's TOTAL DEBTS of 227 million ???? Just asking for you math challenged folks...Of course that is only ONE asset..Now toss in the CASH(85 MILLION or thereabouts !), Gas turbines, Natural gas itself, p-2's,p-3's, 1.6 MILLION acres of leases, seismic performed assets, well platforms, etc, etc, etc...All those ADD to the asset base MILLIONS and MILLIONS and we're well OVER any debts when it comes to a LARGE net in the asset direction..Just them darn facts that run counter to the dishonest BS being spewed ..
likely one of those honchos selling a "how to" class..Of course he made 29,400% channeling..It's a sure thing..That's why all gurus do it ...and of course the internet and their backgrounds are always true..yada, yada, yada...I know people channel trade...I'm less fond of the day traders far more so than channel guys..FWIW...Would not have a problem with very short term traders and the machines that do that being taxed at a higher rate than current short term rates that now exist...That's just my opinion..
Have no first hand knowledge of anything, but have been to the rodeo and am darn good in my math and common sense.. I think we should just keep informing our fellow posters to the facts and rebuke those hacks meant to defraud the ignorant of their shares..Have no problem with the open forum when I have my "ignore" button ready at a moments notice for the kids like Joshy and AVI..I have no use for liars and cheats who have not an ounce of intellectual honesty within their genes..
lots of ways to skin the March debt question..The simple math situation I refer to is if push comes to shove, the cash on hand and in bank exists to pay the 59 million March debt in full. Yeh, it's taking time,It's NOT DUE YET,,,,as I'm sure their first choice is not to drain their cash reserves by that amount,,,but EVEN if done, they would more than likely STILL have a cash balance in the 10's of millions and without selling gas turbines or taking on another JV partner or anything else..PPS is ridiculously LOW as I can see some just have no clue to what the facts are when it comes to assets, liquidity, liability totals and so much else..Hope the short count Monday is near what it was prior as I look forward to their being thrashed from the levels they could cover some at now..
apparently math is not your thing...I'm saying that if any push comes to shove, then payment will be made by CASH ON HAND..Not a chance of any BK filing at this time..PERIOD...and that's AFTER paying 100% on the dollar of what's owed of the March debt..I'm sure they are hoping to roll some or maybe work out a new cost sharing or sale of some asset with Pac Rub to assist in holding on to as much cash as they can. I'm sure they are looking at ALL their options..There's more ways than one to skin the cat of the March debt issue..2017 debt is a different cat, but lots can happen in the energy sector over the next two plus years...What I know is assets minus liabilities ON THIS DAY, FAR
RJ analyst estimated Capex for 2015 WITHOUT CUTS of approximately 66 million...He also estimated a 14 million capex deficit AFTER cash flows generated by company that are needed to account for that CAPEX budget...Cash flows were based on2015 $70 Brent pricing average which we DON"T have at this point..and that deficit is WITHOUT cutting the capex budget that I know in my view will be cut...Point being that with ample enough cash on hand and IN THE BANK ALREADY, there is enough to pay the 59 million PAYMENT IN FULL now..Not some 50% on the dollar that was tossed out by some other spreader of falsehoods I rebuked elsewhere...They still will have cash IN THE BANK and can reduce or rework capex sharing with Pac Rub that will resolve this question..There is ZERO chance of any BK as ASSETS minus Liabilities is strongly in the asset column when the NET is figured..All the liars and fraudsters will not change those FACTS ...They also have the option of selling those gas turbines that will raise ANOTHER 25 million or so in a fire sale..That would add FURTHER to cash after debt is already PAID..If oil drops further to $20/barrel or whatever, the 2017 payment is a different question...But March 1st, 2015 payment can be skinned in a number of different ways..
They have 100% on the dollar IN THE BANK to pay the March debt..Last time I did math, it was not difficult to pay 59 Million debt with approximately 85 million CASH ON HAND NOW..I say 85 million as I'm subtracting 18 MILLION for any funds spent during the Q.(103-18=85 million left approximately).They had 103 Million at last CC with the 24 million check from Pac Rub included+ 79 million cash listed..That is the math, so your BS doesn't hold water Rise..Better go do some more Due Diligence as to what the facts are. You as are the other hacks are just LIARSSSSSSSSSS....Pay the debt, have 26 million remaining and sell gas turbines for another 25 million per RJ..That leaves plus 50 million in the bank for doing further drilling..They also have cash flow from what they sell you IDIOTS...That helps with drilling expenses, but I as others suspect they cut their CAPEX..I'll give you credit at least explaining your lies Rise..Better than the other hacks, but displays all the falsehoods in your thinking..Get ready to be burned as I hope you believe your BS and are short..
This intellectual answer and posting deserves a "bump".Thanks Newton..Is there any hack that explains with intellect their position of being short .?..From an asset verse liability stance ? Does honesty exist in their gang ?? List the assets and their value you place on them..That is how honest men and women without an agenda arrive at a balanced approach to value..Can you naysayers argue with reason anything while being honest in doing so ?
so if you have a horizon that extends more than four days while starting this past Tuesday, then we are neither up nor down for the most part from that perspective..I do recall something like 23.5 cents Tuesday, so maybe we might even be UP for the week ! Again, I wish we had ZERO short term day traders, but realize that is not the case..While they can help provide large up moves, they can just as quickly reverse themselves as we saw this week...Short count Monday afternoon should provide more insight.....I'm guessing 14 million still short or more..
"ilk"....? quite the word...and yes, I have opinions about traders..Last time I looked, we still had freedom of our opinions as to what some provide society..In your case when it comes to micro trading , not much in my view...Same goes for algorythm computer BS...
explain your due diligence with the asset values you have attached in reaching your number...We know the liabilities...Be specific as to what value you place to 13.5 million P-1 reserves with wells pumping ....Let's just start with those assets..What's it worth ?..... and explain...
liquidation garage sale value exceeds $1 and then some..That would be selling all assets at 30 cents on the dollar of these current depressed levels..Maybe you can enlighten us how with your due diligence you arrive at your numbers you tout ???
not many if ANY covered today...This might have just been those naked who shorted early covering the last minutes..Mondays short count numbers will be interesting...I believe they are released after the close.
just the nature of the beast with day trade short term holders ...Toss in relative light trade, and moves both up and down are amplified..Monday's numbers on short count should be interesting..Likely LITTLE unchanged from prior number of 14.52 MILLION short..Seems only the debt resolution being answered will give us a sustained direction and recovery..Too many short term momentum guys in BPZ at this time..Unfortunate.
Do not think it exceeds any $1/sh til some time after resolution is announced..It quickly may approach that mark, but suspect short term traders then unload...I think we MIGHT retest mid 40's before March debt resolution is announced..Then jump on announcement. Certainly not any shorts covering today from my stand point..Fine with that..One day closer to what the tea leaves hold and March 1st..