I think it's worth zero dollars but I'm not a mobile marketing expert. It probably has some value or they wouldn't have hired people to sell it. Maybe there's special patents it has?
What do you think they'll get for Mobclix? It burns cash, has a horrible reputation and is going through and will go through more lawsuits.
Who would pay for this business? I think they should just shut it down and write it off. Keeping it on the books is a liability.
Velti needs to scale back operations immensely. I'm talking less than 200 employees and solely focusing on China and Western Europe. MM has America already; no use in spending tons of cash to penetrate a crowded market.
Well I'm getting involved in the lawsuits to try and recoup a tiny bit of losses. I'm taking the rest of my cash and just putting in the s&p and selling calls on it. Been burned one too many times by corrupt executives and the SEC is actually a joke of an organization so it will never end. Maybe I'll just focus more on my business and less on speculating in the market.
It was quite a lesson though
So Enron can get sued and the execs charged but Velti can't? They basically did the same thing except Enron was just bigger.
Also, assuming they go bankrupt, what are my chances of compensation? It's not just a case of common equity holders getting wiped out by a failed company; but an actual criminal enterprise defrauding people. Can they be ordered to pay?
Do I have to pick one and stick with them or can I let all four litigate on my behalf? I lost over 100k on this fraudulent company and they committed several crimes including knowingly misstating earnings, making knowingly impossible forward guiding statements and knowingly and willingly destroying shareholder value.
Nothing to lose? Shorting a stock is literally the most dangerous thing you can do. Buying puts on a stock? Sure that's ok but straight up going short the equity can incur over 100% losses and it happens very, very quickly.
I know this is going to be annoying to you but you really shouldn't be speculating in the market with $2000 dollars (assuming your cost basis is around a buck).
Secondly, if earnings beat then this stock will FLY. Positive free cash flow would bring us back to $2 and decent forward guidance will bring us back to $5. Of course this is just my opinion.
Sorry I gotta play devil's advocate to keep things balanced. Even though some proprietary screener probably picked the stock for FMR, I'm still encouraged by the fact that they have so many shares and added more. FMR is not in the business of being wrong.
To be honest, FMR pretty much owns 5-10% of most small caps. They have so much AUM that they have to put money in basically everything to have a meaningful return. A computer probably told the FMR manager to buy more Velt purely on a quant analysis and he probably doesn't even know what the company does.
That seems like a lot of conjecture. Lost top sales force? Says who? COO resigning was a good thing. Again, who says they're losing their client base? They ARE paying employees and they're behind on developer payments because of their DSO issue, not because they're negligent.
Ross is a hotshot CFO from a 6.8 billion dollar company and now works for a company with a 66 million dollar market cap. Why would he choose to join; muchless stick around Velti if he knew the company was going to go under. He would have resigned by now to save his reputation.
This is perfect for him. He joins a company when everyone says it's going to go under and when it inevitably goes back to being a 500+ million market cap company he'll look like a business genius. He'll probably orchestrate the sale of Velti like he did with Sybase and finally move on to become a CEO of something big.
The top executives are all very smart and very experienced. The fact that they're still there is a testiment to their belief that the company will survive and thrive.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
People generally aren't willing to pay 5 x sales for a company teetering on bankruptcy which is what Velti is going through (in the eyes of investors at least). All we need is for Velti to generate just a single penny in FCF. Doesn't have to be the 5 million they're forecasting, but just one penny to prove to people that they're capable of generating a profit but more importantly that they won't go bankrupt.
You guys better beat on top and bottom line today or this thing will drop fast. Wall St already doesn't believe that mobile advertising is viable right now and MM only held up because of a pristine balance sheet. If MM doesn't show a lot of growth then this stock will drop to under $3 within two months.
This is do or die for ad tech companies.
This is the single greatest piece of evidence that Velti is NOT going bankrupt. They're filling job positions in low DSO regions while trimming the redundancies. Baker and Ross are experts with tons of experience in BILLION dollar companies. They would have resigned by now if Velti was going under.
Bankruptcy is literally impossible at the moment considering their assets outweigh their liabilities so it's a classic liquidity crisis which is what the shorts don't understand.
Velti is not and has never been an insolvency case. It has always been a liquidity crisis much like banks in 2008-2009.
If Velti wanted, they could issue junk bonds to finance their HSBC loan AND pay developers but considering they haven't sought debt financing other than HSBC, I have a feeling old Moukas and Ross have away to stave off the liquidity issue.
I'd like to hear from someone with actual training and expertise in distressed companies. How do you view this investment from a purely quantifiable perspective?
I want the short interest to increase not decrease. I want them to pay for driving down the stock by getting squeezed for more than they're worth. If they just get to cover their shorts and walk away then there's no retribution.