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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 65 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    aig

    by timone100447 May 17, 2015 7:34 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 16 hours ago Flag

    No, he's not. He's been playing that tune for years. My guess is that he's a pre-crash holder who won't be satisfied until the past is undone. I've taken losses like that. I know how hard it is emotionally to let go. Timone can't, so he is trapped in the past. It's sort of sad really.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 16 hours ago Flag

    I'm not a T/A guy, so take this with a grain of salt. When T/A is peppered into a discussion of the health and value of a business' fundamentals, I can sometimes believe there's something to it. But all this article discusses is price behavior. Period. You wouldn't know if AIG made missiles or diapers from reading it. Astrology has as much validity in my opinion. Let 'em. As long as we're in buy-back mode, mindless T/A works in our favor. I'm not a "conspiracy guy", but clearly this article had an agenda. If you're looking to cash out soon, I'm sorry. If you're in for the long hall, it plays into our hands.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Still only at $25...

    by jtbc5000 21 hours ago
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 18 hours ago Flag

    We're low by a few dollars, but not by a crazy amount. We were at $27 two years ago, when the common was nearing $59. The common is a buck and change higher now, but the warrants have lost $4-$5 in time value since. The good news is that we can't lag the common by more than a penny per trading day from here out- at least on average. I'd buy a little more if I had the spare cash, but I dont.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Warrants should be at 30!

    by geepersman3 20 hours ago
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 18 hours ago Flag

    I estimate $26-$29, based on the price of the common over $45, plus $2-$2.50 per year time premium. Given the improving prospects of this common, I think that is conservative. I wouldn't consider trimming unless they hit $35 soon.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG WARRANT VALUE KILLER

    by investor7777 20 hours ago
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 18 hours ago Flag

    I've played with those numbers a lot myself. I too would rather see the common stay low while cash is being generated from AER sales and monetized DTAs, but... in the end, it's not up to us. The rising price doesn't so much have to do with a secret discount finding the light of day, as it does with AIG's improving market position (including strategic acquisitions) and performance metrics. AIG is gaining strength and we should all be glad for that. Cheering or jeering on this board has next to zero affect on AIG's price. It's also easy to get greedy. We've been lucky enough to get that instant kick from discounted buy-backs to the tune of several billions of $s spent already. Anything under $80 is still a gift. Whether we make 40% or 10% profit on buy-backs will only affect book value by a few dollars- nothing compared to the impact of improved profitability.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG WARRANT VALUE KILLER

    by investor7777 20 hours ago
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 18 hours ago Flag

    80$ is the book value, with AOCI and DTAs included. And while they haven't sold AER just yet, they have put one third of their holdings "out there" for sale at current prices.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    aig

    by timone100447 May 18, 2015 1:08 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 19, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    Without the hyperbole, I'm inclined to agree with you. But to frame the debate, I bought GNW at 12. It was a small stake, but it forces me to admit my crystal ball is sometimes foggy. Value is as value does. AIG is on the right track. GNW can't find any track right now. They either knew, or should have known, that their long term care business was a time bomb. Let's hope we're both right about AIG anyway.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    aig

    by timone100447 May 18, 2015 1:08 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 18, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    Geez. Not again. Splits, reverse or otherwise, have NO affect on true value and little affect on the long term market price of the float. It's like swapping a ten dollar bill for ones, or vice versa. They are merely intended to price the stock in denominations favorable to prospective buyers. AIG's stock lost value only because the reverse split coincided with giving most of the company away to the feds. That value is lost forever Even if AIG manages to catch up in value, it will be with new earnings- not with recovered valuations of the old.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG is cheap!

    by ipsofacto777 May 14, 2015 9:38 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 15, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    As much as I'm frustrated and impatient with my warrants flat-lining for the last two years, my patient side still cheers these cheap prices. Until spare cash from retired DTAs and sales of AER is used to retire shares, it's in our long term interests for the price to stay depressed. The "they" you are referring to includes institutional investors who cannot afford to wait 3 more years for vindication. Even Berkowitz has been forced to trim his holdings. AIG's operating metrics are improving too slowly to satisfy their investors. Uncertainty over the Greenberg verdict and the remote possibility that AIG could become entangled in settlements is also putting a ceiling on our price for now. Let it. Discounted buybacks are more than compensating us for that minor risk.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG is cheap!

    by ipsofacto777 May 14, 2015 9:38 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 15, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    Book is about $80, we're selling at 3/4 of that. Book, excluding DTAs and AOCI is $60. I'm calling that tangible book. We're close to that, but still cheap.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Quarterly earnings after the close...

    by jtbc5000 Apr 30, 2015 2:01 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 11, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    Sorry, Meant to say 1.2 times book, not 12. 12X earnings does make sense though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Warrants due for a nice move up.

    by geepersman3 May 7, 2015 10:45 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 8, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    I never said there was no leverage. Where did that come from? I don't even mention leverage because of course there is. It is priced into the time value of the warrants, as I've said. My problem is that the time premium is now on the low side of its norms and in my opinion is nowhere near "big" enough. I believe the warrants are under-priced by $3 relative to the common.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Headed higher !

    by martyinohio54 May 7, 2015 12:58 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 8, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    I'm conflicted about this pop, as much as I enjoy seeing green. AIG still has $10-$20B of free cash to dispose of over the next couple years. I'd like to see the float shrink by more than buybacks at fair value would allow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Quarterly earnings after the close...

    by jtbc5000 Apr 30, 2015 2:01 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 7, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Thanks for the support. You touched on one concern of mine though. I don't have the cash to convert and suspect sellers like me could disrupt the market for the warrants in 2021. By then, i might be able to sell enough to convert the rest, but I have to admit I don't have an exit strategy yet. If the warrants drop too much, I'd like to be in a position to take advantage.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Headed higher !

    by martyinohio54 May 7, 2015 12:58 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 7, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Pre-crisis comparisons have NO meaning. You may have held shares in AIG then, but that has no more to do with the current AIG valuation than IBM. Be grateful for the run we're having. Pretend you sold and bought back into a different company. You'll only get depressed waiting for $1800.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Warrants due for a nice move up.

    by geepersman3 May 7, 2015 10:45 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 7, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    My guess is that they will continue to reauthorize $1-3.5 B every quarter till we get back to book value. I was surprised they raised the buyback this quarter. It suggests they're eager to take advantage of today's discount before it disappears. A larger buyback might draw attention to that fact.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Warrants due for a nice move up.

    by geepersman3 May 7, 2015 10:45 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 7, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    I've said before, we've been somewhat under the traditional valuation of the warrants- roughly the "in-the'money" portion ($14 at this moment) plus $2-$2.50 per year to expiration. That "should" mean that the warrants follow the common up dollar for dollar from now on (less a penny per trading day for lost time value). We can't deviate from that by much.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    aig

    by timone100447 May 6, 2015 8:46 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 6, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    That's what Greenberg is suing over. I agree with him to some extent, as long as current shareholders aren't holding the bag. You could have held onto your shares and participated in the recovery, BTW. You forfeit your claim on the current AIG when/if you sold.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    $3.5 billion buyback ==60 million shares

    by sew1959a May 4, 2015 6:02 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 May 5, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Say what you will. I think AIG is managing their buybacks well. Anything more would be denying other capital management issues, as well as inviting intervention by regulators. These ongoing and measured buybacks have managed to happen "under the radar" at a discount that continues to amaze me. If they can manage to retire 4% of their shares every quarter, at a 40% discount on dollars spent, and I see no end in sight, that will add up big time over the next several years. One thing that distinguishes great investors (among which I do NOT count myself) is their long time horizon. Five years is peanuts to them. Guys like WB think in terms of decades- which is easier once you're already rich. The rest of us have to wait our turn.

    Sentiment: Buy