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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 93 posts  |  Last Activity: 36 minutes ago Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    AIG Longs, Have You Noticed That...

    by kmcmahon38 1 hour 35 minutes ago
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 36 minutes ago Flag

    Agree, except Yellen is sending signals that she isn't letting interest rates rise for several months, years perhaps. In the meantime AIG needs to address operational issues. But when they finally do get that right, AerCap and rising interest rates will just be icing on the cake.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    CBDS watch it today!

    by i_fony Mar 5, 2014 9:29 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 15, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Those $20B are on the balance sheet, or there would be no debate about how they're accounted for. And yes, losing that is a deal breaker for most potential suiters. Own this stock for it's value, not some pipe dream.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG is a very poor investment

    by permillamoss Apr 13, 2014 10:17 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 14, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Exactly how do you propose they do that? They can only buy a limited number of shares anyway. Short of engineering lower earnings and talking down their results (both possible, but not desirable), there's nothing they can do to depress their stock price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG heading to $100 per share?

    by wadet80 Apr 10, 2014 8:45 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 12, 2014 8:20 PM Flag

    I hope all you guys are right. If so, I'm buying the next round of slurpies.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG earning vs Alcoa earnings ...

    by charli3129 Apr 9, 2014 9:38 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 9, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Thanks for the stats. Banks are weakly comparable. I like them too, but I cashed out my C and BAC (which have since done as well as AIG) to buy the AIG warrants. I'm still comfortable with that decision. I don't think anybody knows what banking will look like in 10 years. Branch offices are gradually becoming obsolete. mobile banking and non-traditional/direct internet lending may turn the industry upside down. We DO know what insurance will look like though. More will be done on-line, but the basic business model will remain intact.

    As for FB and NFLX, etc… I consider those speculative bubbles only a half step above Bitcoin. You might as well envy someone who won the lottery. There are a lot more losers in that speculative space than winners. If you don't specialize in that sort of thing and are not prepared to churn your portfolio on a monthly basis, it's a fool's game.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG earning vs Alcoa earnings ...

    by charli3129 Apr 9, 2014 9:38 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 9, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    AIG and Alcoa couldn't be more different. I wouldn't venture any guesses about Alcoa's take-aways for AIG. They did make an operating profit, after adjusting for write offs. But write offs are so common in that business I don't think the term "special/one-time items" has any meaning. Revenues came in light too. That seems to be the market's greatest focus recently, the logic being that cost cutting cannot be a recurring source of profit growth.

    As for AIG price projections, c'mon. The few people who pretend to know should be ignored. Projections for profits and book value have some validity. But the market's reaction is beyond anyone's ken. Great investors don't waste their time wondering about that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 8, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    I wish a time-horizon had come with that prediction. Without one, that's not much of a prediction. Are we talking 6, 12, 18, or 36 months? longer? As long as AIG doesn't die, a double is bound to happen eventually. Giving a target date would give that prediction legitimacy. Analysts are notorious for being vague on that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 by j0n_48195 Apr 7, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    but I'm encouraged by how light the volume.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 4, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    You may be right. But you can minimize that pain by using limit orders. Those "front runners" are still there, but your brokerage runs the risk that your order won't execute at all. They might forgo your commission entirely.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 2, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    I'm not much for TA, but I'd welcome your input about why the warrants and common trade out of sync so often. I know the market is thinner for the warrants, but they seem to trade in opposite directions more often than not. I can't make any sense of it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 2, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    That''s May 5th.

  • Reply to

    AIG is buying back stock

    by topinvestgun1 Apr 2, 2014 12:10 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 2, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    ONE billion $ added last quarter to the $600M (I think. They got off to a slow start.) remaining on the previous authorization. I expect them to continue adding $1B each quarter for the next two years. Analysts predict that will come to $10B when the program is finished in about that time.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Apr 1, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    If you feel that way, why do you own it? AIG has been flat for months, but unless you bought a spike, you shouldn't be losing money. Seems to me like you're more of a short, masquerading as a long. BTW, don't pan the stock if you don't have the guts to make a sentiment disclosure.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by strappedtoo Mar 21, 2014 12:38 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 25, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    Wow. Some serious misinformation below. How on earth does ANY buying lower the share price? And yes, I am all for buy backs over dividends. But at these prices, that HAS to raise book value, since the share reduction is proportionately greater than the cash reduction on the balance sheet. C'mon guys. I'm not even an accountant. For every 70 cents spent on buy backs, book value increases by one dollar, minus the 70 cents, for a net balance sheet "profit" of 30 cents. That's a 40 percent profit, or so. Any questions?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Spam has taken over the board But AIG

    by fabricone1 Mar 11, 2014 2:23 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 16, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    The fact that you have to reply to spammers on this thread is very telling. You cannot respond to them directly without rewarding them, by putting their nonsense back at the top of the board. I have a partial, but simple solution. Give us the power to police our own message boards. I've implored Yahoo to give us a "non-bump" reply option. We should have the option to respond to, but at the same time NOT promote messages we know don't belong here. That's not censorship. The current system is. Our only option now is to give spammers a thumbs down and roll over and take their self-serving, paid-for-posting #$%$. These boards a powerful asset for Yahoo. How they can be so oblivious to the benefits of this simple measure boggles my mind. No wonder Yahoo's stock has been stuck in the mud for a decade.

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 13, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    You seem to know your stuff. I'll just reply that that behavior only works if most of us are too feeble minded to ignore those market swings. Just ask yourself, "what would Buffett do?" The answer is obvious, ignore them or buy more. Most retail investors don't realize they have more power than the institutional investors, not less. The "pros" have more detailed knowledge, but we have the ability to trade without moving the prices of our investments and our footprint includes a lot of sweet smaller companies they cannot afford to follow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    book vale===68$ per share

    by turnpiketerry1 Mar 12, 2014 10:33 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 13, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    I would reply that the steps taken to improve ROE in the long run actually hurt in the short. Moving people to lower cost locations, laying off redundant layers of managers, implementing new information and risk assessment systems all cost money. Just because it doesn't show up on the bottom line right away, doesn't mean it isn't happening. Having said that, I have to admit we'll have no way of knowing if these measures will make a difference until they actually do. Paraphrasing WB, a mediocre manager of a great business is better than a great manager of a mediocre business. Insurance may be a commodity, but AIG's global franchise gives it some qualities of a great business. I find it hard to believe they cannot struggle back to 10% ROE. Mediocre? Yes. But that's still enough to make this stock fly.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 13, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Even if others are playing that game, you don't have to. Keep some cash on hand. Buy when the stock plunges- for whatever reason. Sell when traders are getting too giddy. Volatility is your friend if you know what a stock is worth. It cannot deviate from that range forever. You're toast if you think the regulators could manage that, even if they wanted to, which they don't.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    book vale===68$ per share

    by turnpiketerry1 Mar 12, 2014 10:33 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 12, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    Well said, But "there must be reasons" suggests those meta level analyses are beyond both of us- and probably the commercial analysts as well. That's why I rely on guys who share my long term value philosophy- Berkowitz, Cooperman... If they keep singing the same "patience" tune, it's easier to live with my ignorance.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    book vale===68$ per share

    by turnpiketerry1 Mar 12, 2014 10:33 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 12, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    I agree with your 10% ROE assessment. But when it comes to cost controls and policy pricing I fail to see how any company can have a sustained advantage over another. Enlighten me. This is ultimately a commodity business. What makes it so difficult to copy TRV's pricing and operating models? Isn't AIG moving in that direction (simplifying the decision infrastructure, using more sophisticated risk algorithms, moving people to cheaper operating venues)? Isn't it reasonable to think they'll get there, even if that means some shorter term losses in transition?

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