TORM A/S Message Board

I'm not questioning your documentation and I know we all have to live with the consensus valuations of the market. What I am saying is that consensus is wrong- that it doesn't reflect the fundamentals of AIG. Yes, I acknowledge the markets, but we all either buy or sell because we believe (to some degree) that the market is wrong. We only buy because we think we're getting extra value for our dollar and (usually) sell when we feel other buyers aren't. People are afraid of flying too, but we are all much safer on the plane than the drive to the airport. The market seems to have that same irrational "fear of flying" with AIG, while risk/reward is irrationally in our favor. Thanks for the numbers though. (I'm not being cynical.) They do frame the debate and I do find them helpful.

Sentiment: Buy

I think this drop is indeed fear of P&C losses. But even though OK gets coverage like Sandy, the damage and property losses will be a tiny fraction. (Loss of lives will be much greater though- tragic.)

As for your assessment of risk, I have to disagree. As one poster once educated me, insurance is not about taking on risk, but rather spreading it. Disasters are short term hiccups, that's all. The stock price of AIG may be volatile, if that's what you mean by risk. But the underlying business is showing steady improvement. Market risk is not the same as investment risk.I can't say whether AIG will surge to the 50's next month. I can however say it is worth at least that right now.

Sentiment: Buy

What do you guys think of SPAM? I have been doing some SPAMMING and the company looks like a winner. I really need to quit SPAMMING.

I've said this before, there is no comparison. FNMA is a zombie stock. Unless the government changes its terms, current shareholders have NO hope of earning their way out of government ownership.

I can't comment on the impact that psychology and new institutional investors would have on the market, but $5B would add roughly $1.5B or $1/share to book value- immediately. It would take more than a few of those to really move the needle, but why not? That's an immediate risk-free return of 30-50%. Screw dividends. Pay them when AIG sells closer to book instead.

Sentiment: Buy

Hddriven is clearly not a bot. I'm ok with hearing his side. I need the sell side argument to know why I'm comfortable owning AIG. I think he is wrong on two fronts though. As cactionalpha points out. The analysts have been consistently "behind" on this stock. They are mainly using past performance and modest improvement to capitalize this franchise- a rear-view mirror approach. None seem to give any value to this global franchise- and no, not all insurance is a commodity business. Few are willing to back management's 10% ROE by 2015. That comes to $6-$7 per share. Secondly, if a stock is set to double 5 times in the next ten years, do I care if I missed the first double? It's today's value that matters, not what I could have paid if I had gotten in sooner.

Donald, I have another question for you though. I get the intrinsic value thing. But just throwing 1.2X book is intellectually dishonest. I'd get in a lot of trouble if I stereotyped everybody as "average". That number is arrived at by tweaking the assets on the balance sheet, evaluating market conditions and capitalizing future cash flows. Have you done any of that work yourself? I know Whitney Tilson has, but that process is as induvidual as we all are. I'd b interested to hear your take. In particular, how would you capitalize the $8/shr or so of AOCI?

Sentiment: Buy

MISM looks ready to SPAM off. SPAM it out

Looks like MISM is about to SPAM off. With all of the recent developments I am going to start SPAMMING some MISM

HF managers tend to be somewhat short term in their thinking. (Berkowitz is an exception.) Combine that with the outrageous fees they collect and it is a mystery to me why any of their so-called sophisticated clients buy into their empty mystique. You can trade around these guys though. They sometimes flag good value. It is possible to make sure you get in under their purchase cost and get out at a better price too. You and I don't move the market when we buy and sell, those guys do.

Sentiment: Buy

As far as I'm concerned Soros is a trader, not an investor. I read "The Alchemy of Finance" many years ago. He's more about intuition and psychology than objective value. He's made some money, but that doesn't mean he reflects my thinking and investment style. I'll stick with Berkowitz.

Sentiment: Buy

Book value is actually $67. I get that $59 is the number to use in calculating operational earnings, but could somebody tell me what, if any, that remaining $8/shr of AOCI is actually worth? Surely $12 B on the books can't be totally fictitious. It would be nice to know what reasonable discount factor to use for that.

Sentiment: Buy

I think book value is important, but only in the context of ROE. If AIG can achieve a double digit ROE by 2015, as their stated goal, then we should sell at some modest premium to book. Time will tell whether 1.5 is ambitious or conservative. They are certainly moving in the right direction though. I hope to be there when it happens, sooner rather than later.

Sentiment: Buy

The warrants are finally beating the common into the close. Does this indicate that there was no expected dividend announcement? Or are we just catching up based on the warrants lagging over the past few weeks?

Sentiment: Buy

Still no luck here. Is this why the sudden drop?

Did you hear today's shareholders meeting? I didn't. Any take-aways?

My guess is that there wasn't a major announcement about buy backs or dividends. I couldn't get the call up. Hope to read a transcript tonight though.

Sentiment: Buy

SPAM BCRX now: SPAMsqeeze !!!!!!

Got a link for that?

Wow, heard there is a massive SPAM coming to MISM

MISM is the next big SPAMMER