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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 73 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    AIG to sel AER Stake

    by budfoxtrading 17 hours ago
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 16 hours ago Flag

    Don't get that "maximum" price line. Don't they mean minimum? If they are in no hurry to sell, why would they set a cap instead of a floor? Lil' help from somebody more knowledgeable about these matters?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom of the range. Screaming buy here!

    by geepersman3 Mar 26, 2015 2:42 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 27, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    Agreed, but nothing more to say. We've been range bound for over a year. We're near the bottom, but that doesn't mean we can't go lower still. Nothing to do but wait and see. Very boring.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG Deferred Tax Loss Credit ~ $20B

    by donald_sharp007 Mar 16, 2015 6:49 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 17, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Oh no, I'm busted! Again! FYI I was working late that night and was kicking back before bed. Spamming is not as glamorous as you think! (sarcasm, in case you missed that) I must be saving up for that sweet Aerostream at the trailer park. You're the only one here who believes I'm a spammer, or that I have multiple aliases. Why don't you respond to what I actually say instead of attacking me(s). My issue is not with spam so much as the fact that it doesn't add anything of substance to the debate of the investment in question- and neither, BTW, do you.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG Deferred Tax Loss Credit ~ $20B

    by donald_sharp007 Mar 16, 2015 6:49 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 17, 2015 1:51 AM Flag

    I can't see how the deal will be declared illegitimate without the forced indemnification along with it. The governent has yet to extract one dime form any company other under similar circumstances. There i s some risk, I'll grant. Thanks, but I''ll take my chances.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 12, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    I also resent being lumped together with other posters. If "we" aren't posting, what's your point? I agree with iq most of time, But if he's getting my spammer checks I really want them back. You have now driven most sensible and civil conversation from this board. Aren't you satisfied yet? XRay is right, we have little influence over the stock (even less on warrants in my case). So why do I post? Because AIG, like so many other good investments, is boring. I'm doing well, but haven't made a dime in the past year. I need to constantly remind myself why I'm in this. Boredom and bores like you are the price I pay to go the distance. Get a life.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Any green today is a huge BULLISH signal!!!

    by xrayflourishes Mar 6, 2015 1:53 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 6, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    It's the threat/promise of interest rates rising. Bad for the market, good for insurance if it's gradual enough.

  • Reply to

    Any green today is a huge BULLISH signal!!!

    by xrayflourishes Mar 6, 2015 1:53 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Mar 6, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Sorry, meant thumbs up. Thanks for fighting the spam.

  • Reply to

    The street still does not trust CBI's numbers

    by n16m15 Feb 27, 2015 9:53 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 27, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    I disagree with the negative posts below. But I'm hoping they prove right by the time I rotate out of my other investments. I'd love to see CBI this cheap when I have the funds to take advantage. I used to work for an engineering company that swallowed a "pig"- another company nearly as large. Their balance sheet was a disaster and they knew they were "at risk" until their retained profits could clean it up. Though CBI is vulnerable to any downturn and it appears Shaw (?) was too expensive in hindsight, they'll still work their way out of this in a few years time. Most stock investors aren't that patient though.

  • Reply to

    to spambot j0n

    by kbkhkmartz Feb 24, 2015 1:34 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Wish I knew. I gave my valuation thesis in a reply to another of your posts. These guys often just move in different directions, but roughly track in the long run. We're only off by a dollar now in my opinion. If you continue to harass or try to insult me me, I'll lay low again and quit posting though. If you don't know the difference between SPAM and investor opinion, you and Donald Sharp have more in common than I thought. The warrants are where most of my money is. If I'm wrong, rude posters will be the least of my worries.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Agreed. The warrants have been tracking the "in the money" plus about $2.50 per year for time value. That's approximately $14+ for time value, plus $10 "in the money" over the $45 strike. We're off by a buck by my math- not crazy cheap, but that 4.5% discount to the stock adds a margin of safety I'm happy to take.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Wow, really? Though the possibility of AIG being liable for any Starr settlement is not zero, it is close. Hancock is probably thinking of cash flow. At these prices, he'd only liquidate AER at whatever rate he can divert the cash into buybacks. If AIG shot up to Citi's target of $68, he'd be content to hold AER. If AIG stays this cheap, he'll perform a steady, but boring, sale of AER, with as little fanfare as possible, so he can continue to pump up the buybacks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Serious? No. It's just spam. The poster doesn't know or care about the difference between AIG and IBM. Half of those posts tell you AIG will soar, the other half will call for it to crash. It's just to get your attention. It's doubtful the poster's native tongue is even English. Ignore it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 21, 2015 12:25 AM Flag

    Are you for real? We've been here before. Graduate, grow up and get a job. I'll say this again, If anybody wants to pay me to post, I'm all over that. But if you can't tell by our writing styles that we're not the same person, you're too dense to invest in stocks. Also, I'm in the warrants, but that's as far as I've ever gotten to trading options.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 20, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    Don't know if AIG needs the cash right now- or if debt heavy AER needs their own I was also hoping AER would get back over $50 again. .Such a deal wouldn't shock me though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    78 dollar book value !

    by martyinohio54 Feb 17, 2015 11:20 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 19, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    I think it's very telling that AIG not only raised their buyback to $2.5 billion on a huge earnings miss, but made no mention of getting SciFi approval to do so. AIG is so cash flush that approval must have been quick or never in question. Monetizing those deferred tax assets invisibly makes AIG richer by about $17 Billion is cash over the next several years. Buying back discounted shares magnifies that impact by 40% at current prices.. It's boring to just sit on AIG warrants for the next 6 years, but I'm being well paid for feeling useless watching that "grass grow".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    78 dollar book value !

    by martyinohio54 Feb 17, 2015 11:20 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 18, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    Not happening without a return to a healthier ROE. Peter told shareholders (I've read) to expect a half percent per year improvement (in expense rations?). Bottom line? AIG will get to $100 about when its book value does, with bumpy but otherwise steady improvement in the meantime. Don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, I'm just trying to be realistic.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 17, 2015 9:56 PM Flag

    Agree with the sentiment, but that's why stocks are also call "residuals". Stockholders have a feeble claim to earnings, but only after all others' claims are taken care of first- including managers'- scrupulous or otherwise. If I got back every dollar that was stolen from me as a shareholder, I'd be several times as rich (meaning just a little bit). Unfortunately, that's not the way it works. The market dynamic generally (but not always) assures stockholders get higher returns for accepting that risk. I feel your pain, but don't give you much chance of satisfaction. You might get a small settlement, but after the lawyers take their 30% cut, you'll be lucky if it's worth your trouble to file the paperwork to get your share. Been there, done that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AH trade 215K shares at 17:35PM

    by sew1959a Feb 17, 2015 5:44 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 17, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    Not sure if they can start their buybacks so soon after earnings, but it smells like it. Those trades are accumulated throughout the day, then settled as a batch at the end. Some other buyer might be playing the same game too though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 13, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    The point your repliers are trying to make is that you're asking an apples vs oranges question. About the only thing that is unchanged about AIG is its name. Different balance sheet, share count, a different mix of companies, a different economic and stock environment, interest rates... It's like comparing a gorilla to a zebra. You're hoping for a simple answer to a question that has none.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    buyback

    by jtirich Feb 13, 2015 12:17 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 13, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    About right.