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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 68 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Bruce Berkowitz was interviewed on TV today

    by fabricone1 Nov 23, 2014 9:16 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 20 hours ago Flag

    As you wish.

  • Reply to

    Bruce Berkowitz was interviewed on TV today

    by fabricone1 Nov 23, 2014 9:16 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    He must still be smarting from his weak calls on Sears and St. Joe's. I really don't get his (or WB's) old school views on real estate. The collapse of the housing bubble has permanently undermined the home ownership mystique, while the internet is doing the same to commercial real estate. But Berkowitz is spot on with financials, though I like insurance better than banking. I think we know what insurance will look like in 10 years. I don't believe we know what a bank will look like then- or even money for that matter. Bitcoin is not the only virtual currency that is showing some advantages. Just saying.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Greenberg Lawsuit

    by lagoken Nov 5, 2014 8:01 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    Thanks for the Spark Note version. Sounds like they are laying out what is already being said: There is still a very real danger to current shareholders, but that danger is small in magnitude and remote in time. I'm sure the article will go non-subscriber-public soon anyway. At the very least it's bound to be referenced up-and-down by the internet media in the meantime. I don't plan on selling anytime soon. Thanks again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Greenberg Lawsuit

    by lagoken Nov 5, 2014 8:01 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    You have to be a subscriber. The article is only good if you can if you can read it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lawsuit

    by rattisback Nov 24, 2014 1:07 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    "No matter it is over." Did I miss something? I'm unaware if there was a ruling. I didn't see anything in the Yahoo headings. Correct me if I'm wrong. Just to be clear, I do think AIG is at some slight risk. So I'd be delighted to see this resolved in such a way that an appeal is unlikely. The feds were scoundrels, but it might hurt current shareholders further if Greenberg prevails.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 21, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    The original poster is just a spammer. There are plenty other posts that would be better choices for your optimistic response. I hope you prove to be right. I'm in up to my eyeballs too.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 21, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Both sides are poised to appeal. It doesn't matter who wins. This will be in the courts for many years to come.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    shell company here

    by opele1 Nov 18, 2014 7:08 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 19, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    You reveal your true nature when you wish for disasters, just to satisfy your doomsday fantasies. You discredit what (very) little truth their is to any of your hyperbole. PS Have the guts to post a recommendation. I presume you are a "Strong Sell".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 18, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    I feel your pain. But despite the volatility, the warrants have been tracking the common fairly consistently. Add $2.50/yr for the time and risk value of the deferred $45 strike price ($15- and change right now), plus the $9 that the warrants are currently in the money, and you come pretty close to the current $24 market price. If the stock was, say $72 before the end of 2015 (optimistic, but not unreasonable), we would see about $40 on the warrants ($27 in the money, plus 12.50+ time value and some rounding). That's 50% upside over the next 12 months, against the risk of the warrants rising only a few bucks per year (based on retained earnings alone). I like those odds.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 18, 2014 8:29 AM Flag

    I haven't been following GM lately. I only owned a little back in the 1980's. If what you say is true, somebody is asleep at the switch. I expect to earn 10%, but am willing to take risks (mostly in AIG warrants) that no pension fund could/should be allowed. I have to assume, they didn't have the guts to cut existing pensions to a more sustainable level and hoped (against reason) that ballooning profits would allow GM to step up at a later date with more funding. It's not a good sign if they're in denial even bankruptcy can't cure.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    You are not OUTRAGED???

    by jimtalkner Nov 17, 2014 6:06 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 17, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    I've been at this too long to be outraged. Dishonest people will always find a way. Their ability to "spin" their larceny is what bothers me most. Like mosquitoes and flies, you can control them at some tolerable level, but they will always be with us.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 17, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    It's about the word "indemnification". If that stands, while the rest of the deal falls apart, AIG would be liable. The government would pay up front, then file a claim against AIG. I conceded that is unlikely, but still not impossible. Common sense has nothing to do with it. Read the article. Why people get defensive about matters of record and fact is beyond me. Challenge the journalists if you disagree. I'm not the guy who needs convincing. I'm fully vested.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 14, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    I can list several stocks I wish I'd held, but got impatient and sold. The only reason I'd consider selling at these or even recent higher prices, is if I thought the current company really could be liable for a large Greenberg settlement. I don't yet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 14, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Logically you are correct. But again, the law sometimes strays from both logic and ethics. I agree the chance that AIG pays is remote, but that's not the same as zero. The article I presumed you referenced made that very clear- even its title. I expect AIG to make me rich. But that doesn't mean I have to wear rose colored glasses- or worse- blinders.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 14, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    If both sides are likely to appeal, we're stuck with this tar baby for several years yet, win or lose.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Greenberg Lawsuit

    by lagoken Nov 5, 2014 8:01 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 14, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    That makes a little sense, if you're a lawyer. I am not though. I cannot see the logic of overturning the terms of a coerced agreement, without also overturning an indemnification that was part of those same terms. Go figure. One thing's for sure, this morning's article has spooked investors. The only consolation is in the further discounting during the ongoing buybacks. While I think the risk of an "adverse outcome" to longs is low, I've disagreed all along with those who claim that risk is zero.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    For AIG Longs Getting Impatient Waiting...

    by kmcmahon38 Nov 6, 2014 1:14 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 6, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    That ROE is the fly in AIG's soup though. In this case AIG is low for a reason. ( I also recall Walmart having it's issues back then too. Target was eating their lunch and they had saturated most of their "big box" markets.) But whether it's neglect or, more likely, over-discounting for minor problems, I agree AIG is a bargain relative to its current price. (Disclosure: I felt the same way about Genworth too, until yesterday.) I also think analysts are slow to change their opinions because they don't want to be seen caught off guard when their predictions are off the mark. Sooner or later, they'll have to come around though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Performing OK

    by sean_erickson2000 Nov 5, 2014 2:37 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 6, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    "...much of that value is in DTAs that will take some time to be realized." Correct me if I'm wrong, but that whittling away at those DTAs is invisibly adding to cash flow, since taxes that aren't being paid are still being deducted from the income statement. I see AIG for its cash flow value as much as earnings right now. Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG just isn't going anywhere

    by chxfhx Nov 6, 2014 9:43 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 6, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Agree with the feeling, but know better than to act on it. AIG is on a painfully slow path to good health, but it's selling cheap enough to be worth the wait. Considering that buybacks are adding 30 cents/ shr to book value each quarter (half a billion per $1.5B spent) plus $4.60 in earnings, we're looking at a combined earnings-plus-buyback-profit of about $6/shr yr. I can live with 11% yield. Next year looks no better, but eventually AIG will get their metrics in order. They are also poised to grow into a solid global market position. Once the analysts stop knit-picking these earnings, we're likely to see a drift upwards. I'm toughing this out.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 5, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Thanks. I'll check that when I get the time. I will point out though, that AIG is a superior cash flow machine- ROE and combined ratio aside. They are converting booked differed tax assets to cash that they are using to buy discounted stock, reduce debt and yes, pay dividends. Insider buys confirm management's conviction of the health and prospects of this company.

    Sentiment: Buy

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