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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 81 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 27, 2015 11:35 AM Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    The street still does not trust CBI's numbers

    by n16m15 Feb 27, 2015 9:53 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 27, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    I disagree with the negative posts below. But I'm hoping they prove right by the time I rotate out of my other investments. I'd love to see CBI this cheap when I have the funds to take advantage. I used to work for an engineering company that swallowed a "pig"- another company nearly as large. Their balance sheet was a disaster and they knew they were "at risk" until their retained profits could clean it up. Though CBI is vulnerable to any downturn and it appears Shaw (?) was too expensive in hindsight, they'll still work their way out of this in a few years time. Most stock investors aren't that patient though.

  • Reply to

    to spambot j0n

    by kbkhkmartz Feb 24, 2015 1:34 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Wish I knew. I gave my valuation thesis in a reply to another of your posts. These guys often just move in different directions, but roughly track in the long run. We're only off by a dollar now in my opinion. If you continue to harass or try to insult me me, I'll lay low again and quit posting though. If you don't know the difference between SPAM and investor opinion, you and Donald Sharp have more in common than I thought. The warrants are where most of my money is. If I'm wrong, rude posters will be the least of my worries.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Agreed. The warrants have been tracking the "in the money" plus about $2.50 per year for time value. That's approximately $14+ for time value, plus $10 "in the money" over the $45 strike. We're off by a buck by my math- not crazy cheap, but that 4.5% discount to the stock adds a margin of safety I'm happy to take.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Wow, really? Though the possibility of AIG being liable for any Starr settlement is not zero, it is close. Hancock is probably thinking of cash flow. At these prices, he'd only liquidate AER at whatever rate he can divert the cash into buybacks. If AIG shot up to Citi's target of $68, he'd be content to hold AER. If AIG stays this cheap, he'll perform a steady, but boring, sale of AER, with as little fanfare as possible, so he can continue to pump up the buybacks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 24, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Serious? No. It's just spam. The poster doesn't know or care about the difference between AIG and IBM. Half of those posts tell you AIG will soar, the other half will call for it to crash. It's just to get your attention. It's doubtful the poster's native tongue is even English. Ignore it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 21, 2015 12:25 AM Flag

    Are you for real? We've been here before. Graduate, grow up and get a job. I'll say this again, If anybody wants to pay me to post, I'm all over that. But if you can't tell by our writing styles that we're not the same person, you're too dense to invest in stocks. Also, I'm in the warrants, but that's as far as I've ever gotten to trading options.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER & AIG

    by iq_investement_tw Feb 20, 2015 4:18 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 20, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    Don't know if AIG needs the cash right now- or if debt heavy AER needs their own I was also hoping AER would get back over $50 again. .Such a deal wouldn't shock me though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    78 dollar book value !

    by martyinohio54 Feb 17, 2015 11:20 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 19, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    I think it's very telling that AIG not only raised their buyback to $2.5 billion on a huge earnings miss, but made no mention of getting SciFi approval to do so. AIG is so cash flush that approval must have been quick or never in question. Monetizing those deferred tax assets invisibly makes AIG richer by about $17 Billion is cash over the next several years. Buying back discounted shares magnifies that impact by 40% at current prices.. It's boring to just sit on AIG warrants for the next 6 years, but I'm being well paid for feeling useless watching that "grass grow".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    78 dollar book value !

    by martyinohio54 Feb 17, 2015 11:20 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 18, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    Not happening without a return to a healthier ROE. Peter told shareholders (I've read) to expect a half percent per year improvement (in expense rations?). Bottom line? AIG will get to $100 about when its book value does, with bumpy but otherwise steady improvement in the meantime. Don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, I'm just trying to be realistic.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 17, 2015 9:56 PM Flag

    Agree with the sentiment, but that's why stocks are also call "residuals". Stockholders have a feeble claim to earnings, but only after all others' claims are taken care of first- including managers'- scrupulous or otherwise. If I got back every dollar that was stolen from me as a shareholder, I'd be several times as rich (meaning just a little bit). Unfortunately, that's not the way it works. The market dynamic generally (but not always) assures stockholders get higher returns for accepting that risk. I feel your pain, but don't give you much chance of satisfaction. You might get a small settlement, but after the lawyers take their 30% cut, you'll be lucky if it's worth your trouble to file the paperwork to get your share. Been there, done that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AH trade 215K shares at 17:35PM

    by sew1959a Feb 17, 2015 5:44 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 17, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    Not sure if they can start their buybacks so soon after earnings, but it smells like it. Those trades are accumulated throughout the day, then settled as a batch at the end. Some other buyer might be playing the same game too though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 13, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    The point your repliers are trying to make is that you're asking an apples vs oranges question. About the only thing that is unchanged about AIG is its name. Different balance sheet, share count, a different mix of companies, a different economic and stock environment, interest rates... It's like comparing a gorilla to a zebra. You're hoping for a simple answer to a question that has none.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    buyback

    by jtirich Feb 13, 2015 12:17 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 13, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    About right.

  • Reply to

    Bought at 51.25 Pre-Market

    by godadada Feb 13, 2015 10:46 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 13, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    I believe so. There are windows in your order to scroll through where you specify which markets you want them to consider- including pre and after markets. One caveat, I believe the commissions are slightly different, depending on how & where the order is executed. So, if you budget your funds to the dollar, you may find yourself in the red by a handful. I've found that happening to me, even when I give myself several dollars of "cushion". It's not a big deal, just a small headache to replace those funds.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 12, 2015 7:03 PM Flag

    I believe SiFi will keep their books honest. Book value for them is real. Cash flow trumps earnings. AIG is monetizing their tax assets and using the proceeds to streamline debt, increase reserves and turn an instant $40+% return on buybacks. I can wait for the street to get a clue.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm out

    by walterbyrd Feb 12, 2015 5:09 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 12, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    Let me get this straight... You've been in AIG for less than 3 months and you're getting "tired"? After being down less than 2%? Investing is about delayed gratification- not a quick buck. Those buybacks you call "desperate" have contributed to a rise in book value of almost $9/shr in the last year. Most companies add significantly less to their book value than retained earnings- not more. Thank you for answering the nagging question of why AIG's stock price stays depressed despite its progress.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Book value is at 78 per share !

    by martyinohio54 Feb 12, 2015 3:28 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 12, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    $9/shr added to book. Screw earnings. A 13% return on book while operating metrics are getting in order works for me. We've had several quarters where analysts have trashed earnings beats. This time we seem to have missed for all the right reasons. Cash flow doesn't lie. Loan retirement, increased reserves and buybacks- let's hope AIG doesn't pop. Repurchases at these prices are like free money.

  • Reply to

    QE over what does AIG do for liquidity now?

    by bluelivermore Feb 11, 2015 1:47 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 11, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    No clue. QE was never the issue, in my opinion. Its affect on interest rates was. AIG has been coping with zero interest rates for years now. The bad news is that they're getting almost no return on their float/reserves. The good news is that they've locked in long term financing at very attractive rates. Rising rates should help them, after a modest lag time as bonds' current values drop.In the short term, it's a modest negative. But AIG considers itself well hedged in that regard.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Still plenty of GNW non-believers

    by crosscourtforehand Feb 11, 2015 9:55 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 11, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    I have a small stake I'm still holding, but count me among the non-believers. GNW either knew, or should have known, that their LTC business was in trouble. They were either clueless, dishonest, or just in denial. Whatever the reason, there's nothing "professional" about how this was revealed. Excellent "damage control" means little if the situation should have been revealed and dealt with earlier, in a more forthright manner.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Feb 10, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    No way. When the stock was at $500, it's book value had to be several times the current $70's. I haven't heard anybody post a value for AIG that was more that 1.5 (2 maybe?) time book. We won't see book north of $250 for several years. As for the "risk" post below, AIG will now be regulated out of any such adventures.

    Sentiment: Buy

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