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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 115 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Volume and posts

    by chxfhx Jul 25, 2014 6:29 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 19 hours ago Flag

    Though the regular AIG board is plagued by spammers, most relevant conversation there would be redundant here. The warrants are merely a more bullish leveraged bet. A clever trader could take advantage of the discrepancies between how the two sometimes trade, but they can't diverge by much.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    so earnings is this Monday.8-4-14? any ideas?

    by corolla1974 Jul 30, 2014 2:11 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 20 hours ago Flag

    Oh, sorry. I get it. It's options, right? To me a few bucks up or down make no difference. But with puts & calls, that's the difference between making and losing a lot of money. Well, relax. My words may upset you for failing to be "gung-ho" enough. But I cannot affect the outcome of your speculation.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    so earnings is this Monday.8-4-14? any ideas?

    by corolla1974 Jul 30, 2014 2:11 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 20 hours ago Flag

    Why would somebody pay me to post? That sounds flattering, but I'm not kidding myself. My posts here have as much influence on AIG's price as they do on global warming. Grow up. As for risk, I'm comfortable with that. Being emotionally prepared for disappointment has nothing to do with my buy/sell decisions. I've shifted new 401k contributions to cash, but still am all in on the warrants. My cost basis is about $11. (We're at $24.77 or so now.) If I have to give some of that back, I can wait. AIG's long term story remains intact. That's where I sense your distress. You seem to be in more of a hurry. Margin? Some other reason why you need to make a quick score? AIG might give you that, but despite solid returns, hasn't so far. I'll happily be the first to eat those words when it does Let's hope you get your wish. BTW, have the guts to disclose your sentiment when you post.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    so earnings is this Monday.8-4-14? any ideas?

    by corolla1974 Jul 30, 2014 2:11 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 22 hours ago Flag

    Results won't be "bad", but some metric might be. Last time, even a beat caused a sell off because the P&C combined ratio was stuck above 100. Many of AIG's initiatives to improve costs and underwriting take time and increase costs in the short run. There's no telling for sure whether we're over that hump. The buyback does give them the ability to cash in on any slumps at least. This beast is a turtle, not a hare. They have the ability to ride their share repurchase a long way before we creep back up to book. The longer that takes (within reason), the more we profit.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    so earnings is this Monday.8-4-14? any ideas?

    by corolla1974 Jul 30, 2014 2:11 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 22 hours ago Flag

    Genworth got hammered today on an earnings miss due to long term health care costs. Normally, I'd consider GNW to be a good Canadian proxy for AIG, But I don't think so this time. AIG is better reserved and P&C will dominate the discussion. One lesson we can learn from GNW though: The market will react strongly to surprises in either direction. I'd like to see that to the upside, but admit there's a lot more that can go wrong. The average analyst is calling for $1.05, before AER and other special items. I'm toughing it out no matter what happens. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Chart and Price

    by momentum_play Jul 26, 2014 10:55 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 29, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    I'm not getting paid, but I'll be happy to give you my address if you want to send me a check. I'm sorry if my balanced optimism isn't enough to satisfy you. If you read those articles you'd know that Travelers had a disappointing quarter. Their P&C is already where AIG is trying to get back to, That's why AIG was bypassed when Travelers was put in the Dow. AIG also has heavy exposure to Japan, which just suffered a typhoon.

    I'm almost certainly more heavily invested in AIG than you are. I'm putting my money where my mouth is. But that doesn't mean I'm wearing rose colored glasses- or worse, blinders. I suggest you relax. By the time you're done attacking me, earnings will be out and this conversation will become irrelevant- unless you can tell me how I really can get paid for posting what I already believe.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Chart and Price

    by momentum_play Jul 26, 2014 10:55 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 28, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Recent articles from Motley and Seeking Alpha have been cautiously optimistic (and well thought through, I might add). The lack of energy on this board, only one week from earnings, is very telling;. Insurance- especially P&C with so many recently publicized disasters- isn't very sexy right now. Earnings will look like chili- very messy, whether it's good or not. I expect stellar earnings, but ambiguous "ongoing operations". The street will run with it, or dump, depending on their mood. I apologize, if I'm starting to sound like a market mogul- no matter what happens, they can pretend to have foreseen it. I hate that. But I've yet to see "clean" earnings from this company. AIG is still a work in progress.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    50 DMA

    by kevinharrell86 Jul 25, 2014 1:09 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 26, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Insurance is, for the most part, a commodity. Profits are dictated how well costs are managed and policies priced. A few do have some franchise (read, partial monopoly) characteristics. Most of those are small niche insurers (like shipping). AIG is one of only a handful insurers that has franchise value due to it's global footprint. In all of our discussions on this board, few of us (myself included) pause to acknowledge AIG's value as a global brand. Sci-Fi will only make that stronger. If AIG can continue to improve its cost structure and underwriting strategy, we should see the share price north of 1.2X book once again. That may take several more years, but we're slowly moving in that direction.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    August Earnings

    by donald_sharp007 Jul 25, 2014 1:19 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 25, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    I know that one well too. Thanks for the shout out. I've said before, I'm over 90% invested in the warrants- virtually no cash. If AIG doesn't perform, I'll look and feel like the dumbest guy on the planet. Nothing would please me more that to see another $10B added to the buy-back, or a nice $10 pop in the share price. I'd just be foolish to count on it. Nor as long term investors do we need to. That would be what they call lagniappe in New Orleans.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    August Earnings

    by donald_sharp007 Jul 25, 2014 1:19 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 25, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    You've thought this out, no question. But your underlying assumption is that the market acts according to the quality of the earnings. We can only hope. Quotting WB himself, "If markets were rational, I'd be waiting tables..."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    50 DMA

    by kevinharrell86 Jul 25, 2014 1:09 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 25, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    For what it's worth, I have another interpretation. AIG has again become a proxy for the entire insurance sector, which in turn is a big chunk of the financial sector. Perversely, most of the recent news (forget about a few plane wrecks, that's a human tragedy, not a financial one) has favored AIG at the expense of other financial sector stocks- think BAC's settlement, which is only a third of what AIG has already recovered and mortgage insurance capitalization regulation, other companies being dragged into sci-fi, etc.. These should be positives for AIG, but AIG is suffering collateral damage with the entire sector. Go figure.

    I might add that AIG's behavior is breaking the pattern of the last few years. Usually optimism rises into earnings. Then second-guessers (usually analysts with part-timers' mindset) find some fault with the earnings beats- combined ration, falling revenues, Benmoche's health, take your pick. Then short-timers lose conviction and sell. The reality of generally good news is trumped by the disappointment that AIG isn't perfect. I'll be curious to see how AIG navigates this altered landscape in August. Knock on wood.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the drop in AIG and warrants?

    by chxfhx Jul 25, 2014 12:02 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 25, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    The warrants are leveraged. If AIG remains flat until 2021 (unlikely, but still...) the warrants would be worth $10 (40% of their current value, for a 60% loss). If AIG doubles by then (most of us warrant holders expect better) the warrants would be worth at least $65, for a 160% percent gain, beating the common by that 60% that was a loss in the previous example. In percentage terms, I expect the warrants to perform at about 1&1/2 times the common. Unfortunately that works in both directions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Volume and posts

    by chxfhx Jul 25, 2014 6:29 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 25, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    This is no penny stock. Are you a stealth spammer? Most of the warrant discussion is on the common stock board, which BTW, is also plagued by spammers.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Here’s why Wall Street is excited…

    by enunsesdung1975 Jul 21, 2014 11:59 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 21, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    Shouldn't I be hungry instead of excited? Please pass the Doritos.

  • Reply to

    AIG buybacks

    by valuegrowthbuyer Jul 20, 2014 1:42 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 20, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    I would caution that AIG has disappointed on previous analyst projections on buybacks. If it were up to me, they'd be having bake sales to fund them to the max. But again, as I've said in the past, the new landscape for longer term stock option awards favors slow and steady growth. Add to that the caution imposed upon them for being sci-fi and I think we're looking at 2-4$ $B per year. I wish they would triple that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER up 1 1/2%. AIG owns 100 mil shares

    by le54roid Jul 14, 2014 12:10 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 18, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    Meant to say, $1.50, sorry to misquote.

  • Reply to

    AER up 1 1/2%. AIG owns 100 mil shares

    by le54roid Jul 14, 2014 12:10 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 18, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    thanks for the update. But to put things in perspective, there are 15X as many AIG shares as that 100million figure (rounding forgiven) . So a $1.60 rise in AER directly only adds a dime to the value of AIG shares- "nothing to sneeze at", as the saying goes, especially considering the windfall AER has been, in contrast to the bath AIG expected to take. But a dime is noise in the daily give and take of the market. Any puff of a tailwind is still welcome though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This is within the range I was quoting in an earlier thread. That's consistent with other settlements over the past few years. Those who were expecting $11B were, let's say, optimistic. Nevertheless, this is good news. It adds @ $.45/shr in cash, will save a few million more in legal costs and give AIG more focus on their core businesses. Gotta love that. One question: Does anybody know if AIG has already made any claims to this settlement on the balance sheet? (I don't think so, but...) Or does this half-buck flow directly to book value? (Let's hope.) Pre-market has been quiet so far, But I'm expecting the market will be kind to AIG today. Knock on wood.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So much spam

    by jhong721 Jul 15, 2014 2:39 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 15, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    I've begged Yahoo for a "non-bump" reply option. That way we could respond to spammers without bumping their trash back up to the top of the topics list. Nothing. As is, we can only respond to SPAM that's already the most recent, without rewarding them in the process. Otherwise we can only give their posts "'thumbs down"". That does seem to bother them a bit, given how often they seem compelled to repost the same message once they get that red mark. I'd encourage you to do that too.

  • Reply to

    Will AIG buyout RDN, MTG or GNW

    by ladyvacation Jul 14, 2014 9:28 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Jul 14, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Might make sense, but too bold given recent history. A merger would be a regulatory nightmare for AIG. I think AIG is determined to grow organically. (I own a little GNW too, BTW.) With new capital regulations for mortgage insurance, AIG might be able to outgrow weaker competitors on its own. It's too bad though. A lot of minorities and first time homebuyers are being shut out of the market. Congress and the feds need to realize they can't have socially desirable lending and then express moral outrage when some of those loans default.

    Sentiment: Buy