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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 118 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 9:48 AM Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    1 question for j0n

    by kbkhkmartz Aug 18, 2014 12:33 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 19, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    I'm still trying to figure that out myself. He either doesn't like that I'm an AIG bull, or that I'm not bulllish enough. It doesn't really matter. For the time being, there's little about AIG that needs discussion. We had an awesome quarter. For the next couple of months I'll just watch how it plays out in the market. Thanks for the shout out.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    1 question for j0n

    by kbkhkmartz Aug 18, 2014 12:33 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 19, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    Thanks, I've been around for a long time, but I'm going to lay low for a while till this guy gets off my back.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    1 question for j0n

    by kbkhkmartz Aug 18, 2014 12:33 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 18, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    no

  • Reply to

    1 question for j0n

    by kbkhkmartz Aug 18, 2014 12:33 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 18, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    no

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 15, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    Soros interest is good to see, no doubt. But he's often such a short term holder, you really have to watch him. He can bail after a few months on a 10% gain. I don't read too much into his sales, so I don't read too much into his buys either. I'm a Bruce Berkowitz fan. The best strategy is often to just buy and hold. Brokers hate that- another reason why I like it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 15, 2014 6:41 AM Flag

    Agree about the 8K contents in the CC, but the CC is only followed by people who are already invested. When those 8K "Cliff Notes" go public, that's when outsiders take notice.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 14, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    AIG didn't rise until after the 8K was released. You can spin the earnings announcement and CC, but those numbers in the 8K were so starkly positive, it was only a matter of time. The paying clients of the brokerages are accumulating now. The public upgrades should follow in another week or two. The rest of August is looking very sweet right now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER up $1 today and AIG owns 100 mil shares

    by le54roid Aug 8, 2014 12:25 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 12, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    A dime a share. "Found money"

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy backs to begin again when ?

    by fabricone1 Aug 8, 2014 3:16 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 10, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Don't know why you reposted this. Nobody seems to know. I looked it up and couldn't make sense of it. "Soon enough" is all I can say. Apparently purchases can go on through earnings weeks, if they are programmed through a third party well in advance. AIG cannot CHANGE that program based on weird market behavior. I may be wrong about that though. The release of the 8K should help. Check it out. Looks sweet. The tax accounting makes sense, but only if you're an accountant. I'm not. AIG is clearly in the best shape it's been since before I started following it. Sharp 007 must be having fits. I feel that pain. We got most of his fantasy earnings, but the market shrugged it off. That can't last though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AER up $1 today and AIG owns 100 mil shares

    by le54roid Aug 8, 2014 12:25 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 8, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    That translates to about 7 cents per share for AIG stock- not big money, but nice considering the train wreck of a deal we avoided with the Chinese.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    60's.....

    by sileonienrique Aug 7, 2014 4:29 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 8, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    You may indeed be right. Nevertheless, the AIG warrants are where virtually all of my investable assets are. I put my money where my mouth is. I'm a big boy. I'll live with the consequences. I've doubled so far, but can live quite happily on social security if that bet goes bust. Only my heirs would suffer.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Book Value....

    by johnnypinz Aug 7, 2014 8:50 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 8, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    I think john was referring to $75 being book value, where it is already, if you include AOCI. That 30% market discount to book does leave nice room room to run. How soon is anybody's guess.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I hope AIG is buying today

    by momentum_play Aug 5, 2014 11:49 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 7, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Ditto Momentum below. The hike was modest enough to remain symbolic for the present, but a consistently rising dividend over several years looks very good down the road. In the meantime, the repurchases are rightfully the priority. I'd love to see them add another $2B every quarter. Can't see why they haven't spent more of their current authorization.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    60's.....

    by sileonienrique Aug 7, 2014 4:29 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 7, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    It's down now, so sell? Strong Sell" based on that lame logic? You' and your ilk are the reason why the average retail investor makes only half the market's total returns. "Give me your phone number, dude. When I'm retired I may need somebody to wash my sailboat for me.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 7, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    I'm not an options guy, but I've played with the Black Scholes (sp?) equations enough to have figured out what better investors have said for a long time. The longer the option, the more worthless those equations become. Though warrants are options too (that's where my money is) they are trading like the stock- more or less. Options guys tend to just crank the "B/S" numbers, ignoring the company's fundamentals. All three, the stock, warrants and options seem to get disconnected often enough for a clever trader to make some money. I'm not that guy (yet) though. I just figure the options time value at something in the range of $2-2.5 (4-5% or so) per year to expiration, then just add in the "in the money" portion. So we're looking at $8 in the money, plus 13-17 time value and you get $21-25- about where we are. But if you figure the company's prospects and progress, these supposedly rational warrant prices will seem pretty cheap in a few years. I paid $11/warrant for mine a couple of years ago and they were equally "rationally" priced based on the current price of the common shares at the time. The longer these options/warrants are, the more certain the result.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I hope AIG is buying today

    by momentum_play Aug 5, 2014 11:49 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 7, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    I'm flattered that you'd ask me. I don't pretend to understand the market and have no patience for that "market manipulation" theory. But having said that.... here's my take. I think the "no trade" window is 10 days. (Somebody set me straight on this.) Whether that's 5 on either side of earnings, or 10 before and after, those repurchases are a stabilizing force that is absent for some days before and after the cc.

    Though I don't believe in manipulation (involving trading shares), I do feel the market's perception is "played" a bit by the analysts, so they have time to crunch their numbers and tip off their paying customers. Their upgrades are made public several days later. Case in point: For the past couple of years, we've been told solid earnings don't really matter as long as the P&C combined ratio remains above 100. Now that it's suddenly and significantly below that, we're told that an off-hand remark about "challenging pricing environments" makes that actual 98%(or so) combined ratio, which reflects those challenges, irrelevant? C'mon. I'd go broke in days if I was as a trader. But I cannot help feeling that we'll get our earnings bump on a one or two week delay. It's the retail investors fault for giving the institutions that lag time to get their analysis and trades in before the stock really moves.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG way oversold, good time to buy now.

    by dell_stk Aug 5, 2014 3:56 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 7, 2014 4:56 AM Flag

    It's called value.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 6, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    I should also offer, in fairness to this irrational market behavior, that AIG is forbidden from buying their stock within a window before and after their earnings release. My mouth waters, thinking they have $3 B earmarked to take advantage of these dips. But for the time being, AIG is helpless to do anything about it. That should change soon. Anybody here know exactly what that "no trade" window is? I knew at one time, but forgot.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 5, 2014 11:45 PM Flag

    I'm going to paraphrase myself, saying several weeks ago that earnings would be solid, but analysts would find something that wasn't perfect to spoil the parade. Though that's the way it evolved, and I'd love to be able to say I told everyone so, I have to admit I never imagined such stellar results becoming a pretense for a sell off. I thought, finally, there's nothing they can second guess. Silly me. These guys can second guess a home run. Clueless! Are we supposed to wait several weeks for these guys to state the obvious and give AIG the upgrades it deserves? Apparently so.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I hope AIG is buying today

    by momentum_play Aug 5, 2014 11:49 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Aug 5, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    They are limited, I think, to 10% of the daily volume. I wish they could be more aggressive.

    Sentiment: Buy

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