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TORM A/S Message Board

j0n_48195 77 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 7 hours ago Flag

    Ultimate SPAM Alerts, up 1000% in 2 hours...

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 9 hours ago Flag

    I agree with your sentiment, but it hasn't happened yet for a reason. Until AIG gets clarity on their SiFi liquidity requirements (excuse the pun) they have to sit on more cash than any of us would like. Those regulations were recently announced, but my guess is that it will take time to resolve ambiguities and get an opinion from their legal and accounting teams. If we get another $2B, I'd be happy. More and I'd be delighted. These measured, modest buybacks do have the advantage of stealth though. The market is lulled into thinking they're insignificant. With book value growing in the double digits they are anything but insignificant.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 9 hours ago Flag

    If Met's life and HIG's P&C businesses are both healthy, I can't imagine how AIG can disappoint. Having said that, we've all seen the market find some fault with AIG's solid earnings in the past. I'm guessing AIG will have a stellar quarter, but there's a very real chance the market will frown upon it anyway. We'll see soon enough.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone else expecting book value to jump to $78-80

    by le54roid Oct 29, 2014 7:35 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 30, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    The real issue is book value in the context of ROE. As a SiFi, I don't expect to ever see a sustained 15%, but I do think their "aspirational goal" should be in the 12% range. The upside to that lower ROE due to the increased reserves should be more stable earnings and greater safety. With 12% ROE, I'd expect shares to sell for 1.2X book. That would put us close to a double within the next 3 years. The warrants should fare even better. Knock on wood.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 by j0n_48195 Oct 28, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    Had a very solid quarter, with P&C a bright spot. If AIG can come anywhere near that we'll be celebrating next week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Aig share price will

    by gainmoney17 Oct 23, 2014 4:22 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 24, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    If you assume that the 92% equity stake the government took was lost money, the remaining 8% current shareholders have a right to claim translates to $136/share based on your peak valuation. We're still a long way from there, but that's reasonable in the 5-6 year range. $1700 has no meaning, Give it up. $136 allows you to compare apples to apples.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Basel Capital Requirements

    by j0n_48195 Oct 23, 2014 12:22 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 23, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    No doubt you are right. But let's hope there's a trickle of qualitative sentiment in the meantime. Their ROE prospects, as well as their stock repurchase plans depend on how manageable those rules are. Lower standards for smaller companies put AIG at a competitive disadvantage.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Anybody with a clue whether AIG is ahead of or behind this? Lackluster price action and light volume suggest analysts are putting AIG on hold while digesting this. The press release says there's more to come. It would be nice if AIG expressed some opinion.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG trial

    by whbog Oct 17, 2014 11:07 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 23, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Probably not, but technically yes. AIG indemnified the feds, that means current shareholders "could" be on the hook to compensate former shareholders and their lawyers. I can't imagine how the other terms of the deal could be modified or overturned without that indemnification along with it. But I'm no lawyer and the law is only loosely correlated to ethics and common sense.

    I was encouraged to hear Steve Miller's comments on CNBC though. He gave no hint of any danger for the current AIG. In fact, he was somewhat supportive of Greenberg and critical of the original deal. Those comments make no sense if he thought today's AIG could get the bill for a Greenberg win.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    GET READY TO RUMBLE THIS WEEK

    by fabricone1 Oct 19, 2014 6:26 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 20, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    AIG is lagging the other insurers today. Odd, but the light volume suggests most institutions are analyzing the Deutche upgrade before they commit. The rest of to week (and year) look strong though. Knock on wood.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG trial

    by whbog Oct 17, 2014 11:07 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 17, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    Yes, but.... that's neglecting the fact that many of the banks' problems were loaded back onto AIG before the bailout, which contributed mightily to its liquidity crisis. I agree that AIG wasn't dealt with in a particularly harsh way. But the crony capitalism that gave the banks a pass at AIG shareholders' expense is also on trial. If you were a friend of Geitner or Paulson, somehow your company did just fine. Greenberg is at least bringing some attention to that glaring conflict of interest. We'll get even more of the same unless people like him challenge it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG Warrants

    by chxfhx Oct 11, 2014 11:21 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 16, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Don't know 'bout the window. I hope to be alive and sane enough to trade out during the last 6 months before expiration. I'll leave it to the institutions to collect a small premium to exercise them. As long as the value of the warrants is close to the common minus $45, it's just easier to sell to the arb's.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 15, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    Odds are you are right. But I disagree that the risk is zero. In the perverse logic of law, the compensation agreement with the feds may be invalidated/modified without the indemnification along with it. It's a slim chance that current shareholders will be paying for a judgement in favor of former shareholders, but that risk is real nevertheless. I think the market is reacting more to the negative publicity surrounding the perceived audacity of the suit, rather than any significant chance that the worst could happen. So I guess our differences are more quantitative than qualitative. The weeks leading into earnings tend to be strong either way. Knock on wood we're in for another strong quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AIG Warrants

    by chxfhx Oct 11, 2014 11:21 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 15, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    There's no reason for the warrants to sell for $50 as they expire, if the common is at $100. They should sell for slightly less than $55-, but possibly more- probably $54 and change, to account for the extra transaction costs and minor "thin trading" discrepancies. No way those prices diverge by $5 so close to exercise date.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    At his age, he should be;

    by gainmoney17 Oct 8, 2014 10:25 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 10, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    The problem is that he is right. The feds did punish AIG while giving a pass to their buddy bankers. Greenberg is not in this for the money. He's out to save his reputation, or ego, take your pick. But if Greenberg wins and AIG's indemnification of the fed stands, the cure would be worse than the disease. I'll be relieved when this is all behind us.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cheap, Cheap, Cheap

    by strappedtoo Oct 10, 2014 9:31 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 10, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    It chaps me to see the warrants down like that. They make a good case for hanging onto some cash to take advantage, but I'm already all in. Oh well.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Greenburg taking this stock to $45

    by vladwallachia Oct 7, 2014 11:20 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 9, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    With all due respect, between the WSJ and an anonymous poster, I'll side with the WSJ. If you have any special legal expertise, then come on out and say so. I'll reconsider based on your credentials. Until I hear otherwise, I'm assuming indemnification means what it says. I do however think it would be morally wrong to compensate former shareholders, from the era of the so-called wrongdoing, by punishing current shareholders of this now squeaky clean company. But moral code and legal code are different issues. To say this poses zero risk to current shareholders seems a bit cavalier- again, with all due respect. Feel free to enlighten me, if I'm mistaken. I know even less than I care for legal matters such as this.

  • Reply to

    Greenburg taking this stock to $45

    by vladwallachia Oct 7, 2014 11:20 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 8, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    I wish that were true, but it's not. AIG indemnified the fed when they were forced to sign that deal. Unless that clause is overturned when the other terms are modified, AIG's current shareholders could be on the hook to compensate former shareholders- with 30% going to their lawyers. It is my hope that that deal (as unfair as it was at the time) now stands intact, or the indemnification burden on current shareholders is invalidated with the other terms. There are no guarantees either way, but I'm sticking with my long warrant bet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 7, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    I think Boies hit a dead end and had to walk away. Hank did acknowledge everything he was accused of. What else was left to discuss? But Paulson deflected it by saying he knew AIG was being treated more harshly than its banking counterparts. That was intentional. AIG was the worst of the offenders, so he had to make an example of them to get public support and congress to approve TARP. "Fair compensation" was never the standard for their conduct. "Saving the financial system" was. AIG would have gone bankrupt anyway, so shareholders had no right to expect the same deal as the banks. I'm not sure I agree, but if that argument holds, Greenberg is finished.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Numbers..........

    by sileonie Oct 2, 2014 3:56 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Oct 3, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Margin of safety. Sileonie doesn't get that. The market doesn't matter until you sell. in the meantime, AIG is a cash cow. They won't even pay taxes on their income for several years to come.

    Sentiment: Buy

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