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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

j0n_48195 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 10:35 PM Member since: Apr 2, 2001
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  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Dec 23, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    Agreed. He got a similar deal with GE too. WB brings nothing to the party but common sense. He expects bargain prices in return. If AIG can't get their house in order without him, he's the only likely winner if he does get involved. Sorry for not posting my sentiment sooner.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Dec 23, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Please, not again. This comes up every few months. Yes, WB would love to own all of AIG at this price- or even a premium of say 30%. The problem is that he can't. Period. End of story. AIG has about $20B in deferred tax "assets" (losses that will offset future profits). That $20B disappears if there is a "change of control", which I also interpret to mean even a large minority stake. Add to that the hostility between AIG and WB over poached executives and withheld reinsurance business. There's now way you'd get these guys to even sit down to talk. AIG is a good enough investment on its own. But no hero is going to come forward to shake things up and make a quick buck for us. The only way to make money in AIG is to suck it up and tolerate the boredom of a slow rise.

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Dec 19, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    He's just a paid spammer. It's unlikely he has a dime in the market one way or the other. I doubt he even knows AIG is an insurance company.

  • Reply to

    Only 11 or 12 more trading days in 2014

    by chxfhx Dec 9, 2014 9:52 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Dec 10, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    Warrants did fine yesterday, today also. Where are you going with this? Who doesn't know when 2014 ends? Doesn't matter how positive your "trying" to be if you are confused.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Am I the only one concerned/posting?

    by chxfhx Dec 4, 2014 10:25 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Dec 5, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    My guess was those 62 (I think) warrants (in two trades actually) were left overs from an older shareholder who was issued them for the common shares he/she owned, and finally just decided to dump them. I doubt that he even knew or cared that he got a lousy price. I don't trust any of the warrant quotes anymore. I got killed on the bid/ask spread buying "at the market" and actually had to sell some of the warrants I had just bought to avoid a margin balance in my IRAs. Those phone calls and emails for the "reg-t" violation got very annoying. They made me feel very "special" but not the way I like. I only buy & sell these warrants with limit orders now. They have more incentive to trade honestly when the trade won't happen at any other price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Am I the only one concerned/posting?

    by chxfhx Dec 4, 2014 10:25 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Dec 4, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    Very thin market. I'm all in, but had a few extra thou$, so I put a limit order in at two dollars under market. I got 60-something at that price. Sure, that was only a few warrants, but 10% under the most recent quote? That just seems crazy. On any given day, the common and the warrants diverge wildly. Over the longer term, the warrants cannon diverge too much from the time premium plus "in-the-money". Worry if the common goes down. Let the warrants take care of themselves.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bruce Berkowitz was interviewed on TV today

    by fabricone1 Nov 23, 2014 9:16 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 25, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    As you wish.

  • Reply to

    Bruce Berkowitz was interviewed on TV today

    by fabricone1 Nov 23, 2014 9:16 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    He must still be smarting from his weak calls on Sears and St. Joe's. I really don't get his (or WB's) old school views on real estate. The collapse of the housing bubble has permanently undermined the home ownership mystique, while the internet is doing the same to commercial real estate. But Berkowitz is spot on with financials, though I like insurance better than banking. I think we know what insurance will look like in 10 years. I don't believe we know what a bank will look like then- or even money for that matter. Bitcoin is not the only virtual currency that is showing some advantages. Just saying.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Greenberg Lawsuit

    by lagoken Nov 5, 2014 8:01 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    Thanks for the Spark Note version. Sounds like they are laying out what is already being said: There is still a very real danger to current shareholders, but that danger is small in magnitude and remote in time. I'm sure the article will go non-subscriber-public soon anyway. At the very least it's bound to be referenced up-and-down by the internet media in the meantime. I don't plan on selling anytime soon. Thanks again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Greenberg Lawsuit

    by lagoken Nov 5, 2014 8:01 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    You have to be a subscriber. The article is only good if you can if you can read it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lawsuit

    by rattisback Nov 24, 2014 1:07 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 24, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    "No matter it is over." Did I miss something? I'm unaware if there was a ruling. I didn't see anything in the Yahoo headings. Correct me if I'm wrong. Just to be clear, I do think AIG is at some slight risk. So I'd be delighted to see this resolved in such a way that an appeal is unlikely. The feds were scoundrels, but it might hurt current shareholders further if Greenberg prevails.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 21, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    The original poster is just a spammer. There are plenty other posts that would be better choices for your optimistic response. I hope you prove to be right. I'm in up to my eyeballs too.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 21, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Both sides are poised to appeal. It doesn't matter who wins. This will be in the courts for many years to come.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    shell company here

    by opele1 Nov 18, 2014 7:08 PM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 19, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    You reveal your true nature when you wish for disasters, just to satisfy your doomsday fantasies. You discredit what (very) little truth their is to any of your hyperbole. PS Have the guts to post a recommendation. I presume you are a "Strong Sell".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 18, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    I feel your pain. But despite the volatility, the warrants have been tracking the common fairly consistently. Add $2.50/yr for the time and risk value of the deferred $45 strike price ($15- and change right now), plus the $9 that the warrants are currently in the money, and you come pretty close to the current $24 market price. If the stock was, say $72 before the end of 2015 (optimistic, but not unreasonable), we would see about $40 on the warrants ($27 in the money, plus 12.50+ time value and some rounding). That's 50% upside over the next 12 months, against the risk of the warrants rising only a few bucks per year (based on retained earnings alone). I like those odds.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 18, 2014 8:29 AM Flag

    I haven't been following GM lately. I only owned a little back in the 1980's. If what you say is true, somebody is asleep at the switch. I expect to earn 10%, but am willing to take risks (mostly in AIG warrants) that no pension fund could/should be allowed. I have to assume, they didn't have the guts to cut existing pensions to a more sustainable level and hoped (against reason) that ballooning profits would allow GM to step up at a later date with more funding. It's not a good sign if they're in denial even bankruptcy can't cure.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    You are not OUTRAGED???

    by jimtalkner Nov 17, 2014 6:06 AM
    j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 17, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    I've been at this too long to be outraged. Dishonest people will always find a way. Their ability to "spin" their larceny is what bothers me most. Like mosquitoes and flies, you can control them at some tolerable level, but they will always be with us.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 17, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    It's about the word "indemnification". If that stands, while the rest of the deal falls apart, AIG would be liable. The government would pay up front, then file a claim against AIG. I conceded that is unlikely, but still not impossible. Common sense has nothing to do with it. Read the article. Why people get defensive about matters of record and fact is beyond me. Challenge the journalists if you disagree. I'm not the guy who needs convincing. I'm fully vested.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 14, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    I can list several stocks I wish I'd held, but got impatient and sold. The only reason I'd consider selling at these or even recent higher prices, is if I thought the current company really could be liable for a large Greenberg settlement. I don't yet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • j0n_48195 j0n_48195 Nov 14, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Logically you are correct. But again, the law sometimes strays from both logic and ethics. I agree the chance that AIG pays is remote, but that's not the same as zero. The article I presumed you referenced made that very clear- even its title. I expect AIG to make me rich. But that doesn't mean I have to wear rose colored glasses- or worse- blinders.

    Sentiment: Buy

AIG
56.28-0.16(-0.28%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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