'Why is a DIVIDEND investor talking about 50 day moving averages?"
Yes, I captured that Dividend and I do Love it.
But the 50 day moving average is still $15.49. I'll leave it to you to figure out why.
"ibexx, and everyone else know's you're attempting to MF the board...
are you writing another article ?? and want the board to proof it for you ??"
Ok as you say------How about this Title: "Nvidia: A Tale of Two Businesses" One thriving one Not
any suggestions for changes would be so much appreciated! LOL
I'm happy for you Ibexx, I have too made 10x gains in a few stocks too. But with that said there is something about Nvidia that screams value. Please don't take offense but this is a Poker analogy. "Know when to Holdem and Know when to Foldem". If you have ever played high stakes poker then I'm sure you know what I mean.I folded a full house against 4 2's Wed.. A higher full house stayed along with a flush. Cost them $40 to $50 while it cost me $8. Folding Tegra to Auto and card partner gaming tablets also comes to mind.
Don't know which way it will go......but if Nvidia does fold em...your Leap Options will truly leap. .and my small position of a few thousand shares will jump. Of course I hope to time an appropriate purchase of mucho shares right before.
P.S. You really are a tell - "Don't write short term covered calls, buy shares or long term leaps". Come on
Enough said....we are each doing what we believe is right.And making money.
Good Luck to you.
A Minute ago you said their we're no games. Grid Streaming from the Cloud are 64 bit.
Are you pumping ARM or Nvidia. Let's be clear.I'm confused by your comments.
As a parent of gamers, they don't seem interested in streaming to the PC.
"They are interested in the games themselves, which translates that Android currently doesn't have any
interesting games for them to play natively on Shield."
True, I agree....How strange that I do. But an Arm 64 bit CPU will not change that fact as you know.
"Shield prices constantly going down..."
Yes, I agree again. Gotta clear the inventory for Shield 2 at CES..
P.S. I hope Nvidia get's their act together on Cloud Gaming..i.e adds a few good games. Suspect the poor Program Manager of Grid Cloud Gaming is saying #$%$" why all this pressure...it's just a Beta Test. LOL
But think about it...Cloud Game Streaming exclusive to Tegra devices with quality games. It's a winner in my opinion.
My My....I'm hear to stay. When I see a dollar or so upside....I'' go full in again.
Now what was that book that you recommended explaining options...LOL
"I see 1B devices annually and 1/2 of those want a good gaming experience. A VERY LARGE sandbox."
The problem I have is with numbers, I like numbers. I went back thru the restated quarterly results and applied the number of Tegra units sold each quarter per Nvidia;s Shareholder presentation last year. Of course they moved stock compensation to the other category-Intel Royalty. Nothing out of the ordinary. Qualcomm does this as most Tech Companies. Think of it as Non-Gaap results. The results were in the 3Q of last year Tegra Revenue was $243 million on 10.4 million tegra units sold for an operating profit of $1.3M.
So that's my benchmark - 10.4 M Tegra processor sold per quarter for a Non-Gaap breakeven.
Don't see anywhere near that this quarter. Next quarter...who knows....depends on who shows up at CES and The appearance of Mobile Kepler in customer designs.
Auto - 1.5M
Xiomia - 2M
Coolpad 2 phones - .4M
ZTE - 1 phone - .2M
Tegra Note - 1M
Surface - 0.1M
Other - 0.3M
Total 5.5M This is optimistic
Then the seasonal decline starts in the 1st quarter. It really does depend on Tegra 5 with Kepler and T4i in customers designs. CES will be the tell in my opinion. No need to wait for Barcelona....see last year.
Also think the Nvidia Cloud Grid Trial is Crucial. Nvidia must have a reason that their processor is chosen over others. Frankly so far all of the processors are about the same in performance. Will see.
Note: Go to Nvidia's job board. They posted a bunch of jobs for Grid Software engineers. The poor guy running the Cloud Gaming Beta trial must be swamped.
eir951...Thanks for the data. That is exactly my point. Nvidia MUST PLAY IN THEIR OWN SANDBOX..i.e. Gamming! Not Apple's (Cool), and not Samsung's (PRICE).
Tegra Note 7 Co-Branding is a good first step. Shild with Nvidia Grid is a better first step. Just provide a compelling reason to purchase a Tegra mobile product over the completion and all will be well.
You may think different...but I believe mobile Tegra is riding on this Nvidia Cloud Beta trial. P.S. The Program Manager for Cloud Grid Gaming was up all last night posting about problems and fixes on the Geforce Grid Beta board addressing problems. Good for him. Hope he's back at work now. LOL
I am not making it up about my friend signing up for another 2 yr. contract with AT&T for a new Samsung Note Phone so he could get a Free Samsung 7 inch Tablet. He is a typical consumer....wants the best deal and wanted a 7 inch tablet too. So he got it. Funny but last year he bought the 2012 Google 7 inch tablet and liked it, but his wife through a fit and said she wanted an Apple IPAD so he returned it and did what she wanted.
My point is simply this. The Consumer market is very price conscience and very cool conscience. Apple plays to the cool, Samsung to the price. Nvidia cannot play in this market. But they can play in the market where they are the best and where Nvidia is cool and the best. The Gamer market. The IR VP said as much in his last two presentations. "What they are doing with the mobile Tegra and focusing on Gaming reminded him of what they did with Geforce add in cards."
Hence why we all laugh and joke...the Nvidia Grid Cloud Gaming Beta testing is very important. Why, simply because it provides a potential for Nvidia to play in their own Sandbox where price is not the over riding issue for a purchase. But Performance and features are. i.e.. the 400M worldwide gamer market.
I'm positively sure this will all play out sooner than anyone thinks......6 months?
A friend of mine recently upgraded his phone to a Samsung Galaxy Note. He loves the note taking ability and uses it in his business. But the reason why he upgraded was......AT&T thru in a 7 inch tablet Sumsung tablet for get this FREE! Sure last years model but still FREE is FREE!
Nvidia has to hunker down with Tegra and simply play in their own Sandbox. Not Samsung's not Apple's. Their Sandbox is Gaming....Period! Nvidia Cloud Shield gaming Beta is a good start. Let the CFO work the financials but Nvidia must provide a clear and compelling reason for consumers to buy Tegra consumer products. Something that no one else can or will provide. Something that their core Gamers want. Perhaps limited amount of AAA game time from servers installed around the world hosted by Nvidia or through a partner is the answer. Small monthly fee over so much. Only available on Tegra powered devices.
Been reading the comments on the Grid Beta message board, and I will give Nvidia credit. There have been problems, but they are addressing them. Plus a perusal of their Job Boards show brand new postings for numerous Grid Software engineers.
I have traded Nvidia since the day before earnings....made 65 cents to a $1.30 per share. 3 different sales, 4 buys. Even have the dividend coming my way 12/13. Love it. Like I have said before I don't do options.....Last sale Friday right after the open. Holding a small position (a couple of thousand shares) because I really like the GPU side of the business. Not making it up....Great Business and you never know about Nvidia. A real plus is they do seemed to have quelled the hyper hype quite a bit in the last 6 months. Will reenter in full force when I think it will pop another dollar or so.short term.
Good luck - Wish I was smart enough to do options or Leaps, strangles, struddles or whatever but I guess I'm not.
P.S. I'll keep posting as I find interesting things. Not because I think these silly message boards or for that matter articles on the internet really affect stock prices in any meaniful way. But I do like reading the responses here and on articles.to get a sense of what's happening.
Check the job boards on Nvidia's website by posting date. Note: anytime you see a job posting at a Tech company more than 3 months old, the job has usually been put on hold.
Now at CES and GTC what do you expect....I'll go first. They might not even go.....now that would be a shock wouldn't it, but I suppose they will
1) A live demo with Tegra 5 Kepler shield streaming from San Jose Grid server. It's critical that Nvidia gets the interest up for their mobile Kepler licensing effort. Convinced this is where the real money will come from in the Tegra business..
2) Nice roadmap of course.
3) Maybe a T4i phone win with a Chinese player. Yes I know Barcelona comes in Feb, but if nothing at CES, I will not hold my breath.
GTC Tech Conference -
Nice Roadmap showing 64 bit CPU. Maybe even a demo board. If The Tegra 5 news with Kepler is very good and the interest is really high nothard to get a demo board together with first silicon.
Thousands and thousands of great things about Tesla, Nvidia Grid VDI, Tegra Auto, and maybe a little more about Grid for gaming.
The funny thing is Nvidia is looking to become a competitor to ARM in graphics while using an ARM CPU architectual license. Strange.
"You're declaring game over before ARM64 has begun... GEESH !!!!!"
No...Just looking at the business. I like Nvidia and the stock for what the company does demonstrably better than anyone else....Graphics Technology. Look at what they have accomplished:
1) Created Tesla and reinvented Supercomputing. Now on a clear path of steady improving revenue(43% this year over last year) with gross margins of 75%. Business is at a runrate of $250M a year now on it's way to $1B a year. Latest twist with IBM using Cuda and Tesla cards to accelerate Big Data software is a huge deal.
2) PC Gaming - Revenue up 6% this year when industry PC shipments down 11%. Phenomenal performance.
3) Nvidia Grid VDI in Enterprise is a slam dunk with every server company in the world adopting it. Cannabalizes Quadro in Workstation for sure but not one for one. Potential is pretty big for additional revenue. Again gross margins in the 70% range. Plus software reoccuring revenue!
4) Cloud gaming----Nvidia is there and has a decent shot. Don't know what the business model will be...i.e. just use it to sell Tegra hardware or an actual service. Will see.
5) Tegra in Autos - Running at $30M a quarter, expected to double next year, and reach $450M a year in 2015. $2B in backlog orders today! LTE Modem in cars could be another big big plus.
6) Nvidia co-branded gaming tablets is a great idea and could generate unit sales of a million or two Tegras a quarter, but with consistency. And With decent gross margins.....no price competition.
7) Potential Licensing of Graphics IP's and cores. This could actually make Nvidia Tegra processor division breakeven but Tegra 5 with Kepler has to really be a slam dunk monster improvement. If Tegra 5 is a success then yes will see a 64 bit CPU. If not well we may see one but it will be primarily for servers and Nvidia's own co-branded or branded products in my opinion.
"They will when they have their own CPU."
I guess they will have to do a 64bit ARM processor eventually, but they sure have over promised and grossly under delivered on Project Denver. If T5 with Kepler graphics is not a success, they may just fold a large part of the Tegra business...---keeping Auto and their shield (as a showcase), gaming tablets thru their board partners, and trying to license their Graphics IP to others.
"THen NVidia would compete directly with its customers."
So far all their customers are outside the US. Playcast in France and Cloud Union in China are the two biggest. With Sony planning to use Gaikai for streaming PS3 games to the PS4 and Microsoft teaming up with AGAWI for XBOX One, they have too to stay remotely competive.
Besides - It a great exclusive selling feature for the Shield and I hope eventually their Gaming tablets sold thru their Graphics board partners.
Don't know, but a quick perusal of Nvidia's job openings show a lot of recent posting for Cloud software engineers.
P.S. It is just to sell more units of the Shield.