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NVIDIA Corporation Message Board

j7777kxx 68 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 2, 2014 11:52 PM Member since: Sep 27, 2009
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  • j7777kxx by j7777kxx Oct 29, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    Enterprise VDI......500M COMERCIAL DESKTOPS....ASP $1750 for Nvida Grid...average users per card...20.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Time to Buy

    by j7777kxx Oct 29, 2014 10:52 PM
    j7777kxx j7777kxx Oct 30, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    the more and more I think about it, GPU desktop virtualization is the largest opportunity that Nvidia has ever had. Just 5% of commercial desktops GPU virtualized is $2 Billion in revenue for Nvidia:

    500M x 5.0% = 25M seats divided by avg of 20 uses per grid card x $1750 card ASP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nvidia started their dividend 8 quarters at $0.075. Believe at the time it was 2.4% annual rate. 4 quarters ago they moved the dividend up to $0.085 for at the time was 2.3% annual rate. For a jump back to 2.3% would require a dividend increase to $0.11 a share. With earnings steadily increasing I think it's logical to assume this will happen. Long term investors like dividends

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend Increase Coming

    by j7777kxx Oct 31, 2014 12:13 PM
    j7777kxx j7777kxx Oct 31, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Perhaps they could rethink their stock buyback....i.e. reduce it some and be more opportunistic rather than ASRs and then increase the dividend. They have plenty of leeway. Plus most importantly it would make a very nice statement to institutions. My model would be how Tex. instruments does.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • j7777kxx j7777kxx Oct 31, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    Mslans, I can't put together a scenario that would drive Nvidia to $25/share by year end. My end of year price target is $22. What I will be looking for in the earnings release is Q3 revenue meets or slightly exceeds consensus of 1200M, a best on EPS by $.02, gross margin 55.5% forecasts. Q4 forecast revenue slightly above consensus say 1215M, and gross margin back up to 56%. But the Color is important: For Example....

    "Tegra Auto reached the annualized $400M in sales last quarter"...i.e. $100M, Data city and Cloud also are now running at the $400M annualized rate, and GPU gaming revenue up 12% year over year."

    Plus Dividend increase to $0.10 per share per quarter, but more than likely $0.11 a quarter

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Jon Peddie believes 30M designer and knowledge based desktops will have GPU virtualization in the next two years. ASP (Revenue to Nvidia) of NVidia grid cards is $1750 each.

    30M / avg 10 uses per card x $1750 = 5.25B! The Citrix and more importantly the VMware partnership is a really big deal.

    Note: Designer max is 4 users, Knowledge max is 16 users on the K2 Grid card.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nvidia's $5B Opportunity Over the next 2 years

    by j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 10:48 AM
    j7777kxx j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    When I think about Nvidia's Tegra's mobile efforts these last 3 to 4 years, I see a pattern of showing the worldwide TAM as to reason why they are going after the market. But that market had entrenched players....i.e. Qualcomm and then Media Tech. They simply could not break into it in any significant way. It was the classic case of over promise and under deliver.

    But now with these new markets...i.e Nvidia Grid, Big Data, and Tegra Auto they seem to be creating the markets where their are no entrenched players. Plus android gaming. Then their base of steady 10 to 12% growth in Gaming is their too. B

    Now they have reverted to what a classic...under promise and over deliver. The analysts can't go out on a limb without Nvidia providing some data. So here's hoping at Nvidia's annual change the way we report the business units....they start to break out NVidia's revenue stream by platform: PC (Gaming, OEM, and Quadro), Data Center and Cloud (Tesla and Nvidia Grid), Auto, and Tegra devices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nvidia's $5B Opportunity Over the next 2 years

    by j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 10:48 AM
    j7777kxx j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Hi eir951, you've been here for ever I think. Nvidia always has opportunities, sometimes they don't really pan out like Tegra 4i, but innovators occasional fail. I wouldn't call Tegra a failure because someone in the company went off and attacked the auto market with it where Tegra is growing nicely. It's just the smartphone market moved on Nvidia too fast for them to keep up. But alas another opportunity has arisen and as the CEO has said..."It's our largest opportunity by far." Yes Data Center and Cloud". If you look back a year ago, I thought this would be Nvidia's saving grace. Now even the CEO is saying the same thing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • AMD has mad a really good move into semicustom. Low margins, but it is growing. The trouble is they just may be on their last legs due to Intel's relentless push on the CPU side and Nvidia's 2nd generation Maxwell GPUs that are 40% smaller die size than Kepler with 70% lower power for the same performance. And this was with ought a die shrink to 20nm. As I understand it 20 nm is out for high power graphics chips because TSMC only has one flow on 20nm which is tuned to low power smartphone and tablet chips. Sure AMD and Nvidia can pay for process add ons but then the cost advantage of the shrink evaporates. Therefore it looks like AMD and Nvidia are stuck at 28nm until 16nm finfets in the middle of 2015. Nvidia has taken the bull by the horns and done the engineering to shrink the die size on the same node. AMD HAS NOT. There ASPS are now 40% lower than they were 2 months ago. The question is will they survive until 16nm FinFets from TSMC?

  • Reply to

    Nvidia's $5B Opportunity Over the next 2 years

    by j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 10:48 AM
    j7777kxx j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    Hey eir951. I mean no disrespect but what ever happened to Ibexx. I saw his last post was in early August right around the time Jensen said they were refocusing away from smartphones. I know he was a big believer in Nvidia's mobile push....had been since 2007.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Controversial Subject - AMD

    by j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 7:20 PM
    j7777kxx j7777kxx Nov 1, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    I see you are still pumping ARMH - Getanid. I'm so glad Nvidia didn't go that route but said here use our GPU's connected to your CPU's...probably saved another $100M in wasted R&D dollars which only benefits ARMH not Nvidia!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Gives up the Bear Case and raises Nvidia to market perform.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • j7777kxx j7777kxx Nov 3, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    Dow Jone News Wire at my brokerage house.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Anyone know?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Not all that intelligent, but you do have to know Algebra.

    Mitch McConnel of Pacific Crest thru in his Bear thesis today on Nvidia! Ouch That hurt, and I quote:

    "Over the medium term, we also now expect Nvidia to enjoy a near monopoly at the high end of the desktop discrete market, as supply chain conversations indicate that AMD’s next-generation RADEON R9 380X GPU has slipped to a 2Q15 launch. Without competition at the high end of the market, we expect Nvidia to continue to enjoy strong product mix and average sale price (ASP) trends. While the desktop discrete GPU market continues to shrink in unit terms, Nvidia has been able to offset this trend with ASP expansion. We now expect this trend to continue for another six months at a minimum."

    Where was he on March 25the of this year when Nvidia presented the following factoid from calendar 2013. Nividia's gaming gpus are 26% by unit volume, but deliver 61% of our gross profit in Consumer GPu's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • He said Nvidia's margins have peaked a few month's ago. Let's see what he says after earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • j7777kxx j7777kxx Nov 3, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    yosefshlom, your barking up the the wrong tree! LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The convert price is $20.16. Nvidia used $108M of the proceeds to purchase options hedging any dilutions of shares up to $27.14.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This Post that I am about to post already tickles me. Hey eir951.....your right I am a trader. I have owned
    I have owned Nvidia stock for over 2 weeks now and even have averaged up some last week. Love the company and the direction they are taking. But alas, I went into this trade looking to make enough cash to pay cash for a new car. Already made enough for a base model econo box. But want more. So I thought I would personalize my goals:

    Honda Fit Base Model - Already There.
    Masda 3 - 4 door - I sport - need $20.70
    Euro entry level luxary car - need $22.00

    Still holding, hope you are too!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nvidia For The Long Haul?

    by j7777kxx Nov 4, 2014 6:20 PM
    j7777kxx j7777kxx Nov 4, 2014 7:48 PM Flag

    Greetings Eir951. You are a stand up guy, my hat's off to you! Single digits...I'm impressed, not fooling. But alas you must be must younger than I am, and perhaps an employee of Nvidia.

    What I love about Nvidia is multifold

    It is the gift that keeps on giving. Innovation, yes. You can't turn around and out comes a PR release with something substantial in it!

    Direction of the company

    Collette Kress (The CFO)...Fighting off and winning against the good old Nvidia boys by holding the line on spending!

    And just perhaps someday soon Nvidia will trim expenses by letting a few not many of the old time Nvidia boys go. Good luck Eir951....LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

NVDA
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