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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

jack_augh 152 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 1:51 PM Member since: Feb 17, 2011
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  • Reply to

    whats the P/E of amazon?

    by iwantlegos Jan 25, 2015 10:44 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Apr 24, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    Right but R&D expenses is not the cash spent on R&D, it is a cumulative total of depreciated R&D over the past say 15 years. If Amzn spends $0 on R&D in 2016, that R&D expense will continue (although slowly dwindle) for the next 10 - 15 years depending on the mix of investments. This writing off of investments allows companies that are growing and investing heavily to report current profits under GAAP accounting. But they do not have current GAAP profits, so this is a problem in the future when they can no longer fake growth by undercutting prices.

  • Reply to

    I read this message board and wonder

    by abvincent1 Apr 24, 2015 12:13 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Apr 24, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Accounting course is in order, you are so wrong it is amazing

  • Reply to

    whats the P/E of amazon?

    by iwantlegos Jan 25, 2015 10:44 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Apr 24, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    Are you saying Amazon expenses its R&D, typically this would be depreciated over time, I am estimating Amazon expenses over 12 years on average. Amazon loses money prior to investment in R&D...So without the excessive spending on R&D the PE would still be negative/infinite .

    But if you ignore all expenses then the price looks reasonable, as would all companies. Clearly they offer a great product at a low price, but the only reason cash flow is not negative is because of the cash raised by stock options. Who knows when this will end, but this is a $80 - $100 company.

  • Is LINE buying these bonds back at 70 cents on the dollar or calling them? If they are allowed to go into the open market, they could buy back over $2.5 billion in debt. I know they should be buying back stock at these prices but buying their own debt at these prices is zero risk for management. and a prudent exercise for the company.

  • Reply to

    Baird Downgrade

    by runtravrun1 Dec 16, 2014 8:41 AM
    jack_augh jack_augh Dec 16, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    Don't worry, the #$%$ will upgrade when Linn hits $22.

  • Reply to

    MY EPITAPH

    by brryry47 Dec 11, 2014 11:49 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Dec 12, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Bonds are the biggest bubble in the history of mankind. No sane person would lock up their money for negative real returns for for 10 years, or 1% for 30 years. This bubble has been fed by endless government support and algos that play relative rates, and drive the insanity further and further.. When it bursts, 30 year bonds will trade for 30 cents on the dollar.

    Bonds can work just make sure you ladder your durations and weight yourself for shorter durations (5 years or less) which means you will earn about 1% on your money. Beats the crushing of LINE...at least in the short term. But if you have owned LINE over the last oil cycle, you have made a ton of money...its just ugly when you look at the last 12 months.

  • Reply to

    21% yield.

    by goskiing99 Dec 8, 2014 11:38 AM
    jack_augh jack_augh Dec 8, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    This iwll be a $40 stock in 18 months.

  • Reply to

    book value

    by mjh194353 Nov 30, 2014 8:35 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Dec 1, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    You are correct, the value of the company no longer matters. The fact that we have no rules around shorting stock means Hedge funds can flood a market with unlimited amounts of stock. This will continue as long as it works. So far, this has worked for over a year on the limited partnerships. Until management takes a stand and announces either they are taking the proceeds of all the hedging and buying back stock than we are in a free fall that could go to $8.

  • jack_augh by jack_augh Nov 6, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    I don't follow GNW, but is this loss a change in STAT reserves or just writing off, goodwill and active life reserves and these numbers flowing through the GAAP earnings statement? I am surprised that I found no dialog on this issue in the press release.

  • jack_augh jack_augh Nov 6, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    This is also your Federal Reserve at work. Insurers can no longer earn a decent amount on reserves.

  • jack_augh jack_augh Nov 5, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Well played. I like selling just out of the money calls against my position. I end up earning close to 30% including the dividend. Every once in a while you get called out, but then a little patience gets you back in at a lower number. I really think this can be a $32 stock so it will take some patience to not sell calls until this is back close to $30.

    Of course, with earning 30% comes the down side of bear raids. Sometimes you just have to turn off the computer.

  • jack_augh jack_augh Nov 5, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    Why run with all the money. hold half your profit, say 300 shares for the longer term, it will be earning almost 14%, while this #$%$ settles out.

  • Reply to

    LINE vs LNCO

    by bobfitz7770 Nov 4, 2014 9:56 AM
    jack_augh jack_augh Nov 4, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Can anyone say why the Yahoo expected earnings document had different numbers for the two companies? The LNCO entity is just a wrapper around a LINE share that allows it to pay the distribution as a dividend instead of a return of capital. Why would GAAP earnings expectations be different for the two entities?

    http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20141104.html?t=line

  • Reply to

    line/lnco

    by mbr52460 Nov 3, 2014 2:20 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Nov 3, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    The problem with doing this is your margin account does not consider them the same company even though they are. So it is not as cheap to do as it should be. The real question is why doesn't the CFO do this. He could issue 250 million shares of LINE while simultaneously buying back all 250 million shares of LNCO, pocket about $400 million for the company and keep the total shares outstanding the same.

    That said, I have played the gap with options but its been only mildly successful, timing is everything with options

  • Reply to

    Funny in a few weeks this will be 28$

    by gooferb Oct 28, 2014 5:57 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Oct 29, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    He will wait until it hits $34 on the coldest day this January. Tthen it will be buy buy buy, because the momentum story will be the high price of heating oil.

  • Reply to

    difference

    by refuseee Oct 16, 2014 10:44 AM
    jack_augh jack_augh Oct 16, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    I have flipped once, but only because the LINE / LNCO difference actually flipped. There is something to be said for the simplicity of LNCO dividends vs the LINE partnership distributions come tax season. I really think that LNCO should trade above LINE as it originally did., but really it depends on your individual tax situation.

  • Reply to

    difference

    by refuseee Oct 16, 2014 10:44 AM
    jack_augh jack_augh Oct 16, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Considering LNCO is essentially a shell that owns a share of LINE, that much of a difference is insane.

    That said, all the new longs have to remain calm. Ride this to $28 and then think about selling upside calls against your position to increase your yield to closer to 25%. This will pay for itself in 4 years if played correctly and then the yield lasts for another 30 years.

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse cuts LNCO price target to $30

    by rmnew2fl Oct 15, 2014 2:29 PM
    jack_augh jack_augh Oct 15, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    $30 was only a month ago. I put it at 20% that we are there before the end of the year. Especially, it the CFO is reworking the balance sheet. LINE debt is below 8%, divy at 13%. He has limitations on what he can do due to managing the debt to equity ratio, but he has to be trying to take advantage of this issue.

  • jack_augh by jack_augh Oct 15, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    I never thought I would see that.

    This has gone down over $6 more than my worse scenario, I guess the experts know the world is ending.

  • LINE declares bankruptcy

    ExxonMobil offer of $29/share rebuffed by LINE Management

LNCO
11.92-0.21(-1.73%)Apr 27 4:00 PMEDT