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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

jackgotney 187 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 3:06 PM Member since: Nov 19, 2009
  • Interesting.

  • Reply to

    Almost to the point of Pt prices rising

    by mmac4207 Mar 18, 2014 8:17 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 20, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    RSI = 31! PLG is oversold and undervalued. Fear makes no sense - the price makes no sense - I just took some profit off my PPP and averaged down on PLG increasing my position by almost 20%.

  • Reply to

    SQUEEZE Me!!

    by michan54 Mar 20, 2014 10:31 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 20, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    It is nice to see and today it is already about double the average volume. I am so glad I doubled down at 4.48. I did it because I speculated, was convinced, that the dividend was important to management and would be sustainable, and would be sustained with the changes going on. It is always nice to see an unrealized profit sitting there in the meantime. I will have 900.00 cash added to my cash reserves each quarter. A nice dividend reduces the risk by returning your invested money to you. The best is when the company is also growing and I think this will return to earnings growth within the year.

  • Reply to

    Neutral on Big Head with little shoulders.

    by solidrocksand44 Mar 20, 2014 9:19 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 20, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    I notice we have been in a pretty strong uptrend since about Christmas. The Stockcharts Point and Figure chart says there was a Bullish Triangle Breakout on Feb 11th 2014 (a traditional 3 box reversal chart) shows a bullish Price objective of 17.75, and I assume that means that is the next forecasted reversal point. But I know these point and figure chart target prices do not always pan out and in reality they don't account for all factors and future events.

  • Reply to

    Almost to the point of Pt prices rising

    by mmac4207 Mar 18, 2014 8:17 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 19, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Not to mention it is undervalued, trading well below the discount to tangible asset value assigned by analysts. Technicals are sometimes oblivious to these things unfortunately, but it looks like the same technicals may also take us back to 1.50 and if the uptrend continues and we get past there, we could head back into the 2's again but anyway, it is smarter to buy when a good company is oversold and undervalued and sell when it is oversold and over valued.

  • Reply to

    Almost to the point of Pt prices rising

    by mmac4207 Mar 18, 2014 8:17 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 19, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    PLG is the only stock I have an unrealized loss in (other 4 I have significant unrealized gains) but the lack of performance has to do with bad timing on my part I guess. I am not a technicals genius. However I am holding it along with PPP to balance out my portfolio with some junior miners in precious metals. I see PPP as the best for gold, and PLG the best for platinum, long term. Platinum has been holding up fairly stubbornly in the mid 1400s. But I noticed that PLG has been forming a fairly clear cut and large "upside down head and shoulders". This is as bullish as a right side up head and shoulders is bearish. It would confirm to me that PLG, lacking some of the obvious fundamentals, is moving up and down on news, but will be subject to technical trading forces in the mean time, more than a stock with a healthy operating cash flow would be. That is this recent drop may not be company specific, but just a technical move that we have to endure while the price finishes drawing out this upside down fella. This could be just a conicidental pattern, however when I have see this happen it is a good reason to hold especially since the last shoulder is almost complete. It would also mean a long term double bottom at 1.05. I would estimate 1.05 is the hard bottom here or thereabouts. It looks like we are close to being offically oversold. The RSI = 36 which is oversold territory. The next rally could be pretty strong so I am holding though this rough spot.

  • Reply to

    MM Games

    by hair_pie_face Mar 18, 2014 1:49 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 19, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Whatever it takes to maximize our future positive cash flow per share!

  • Reply to

    MM Games

    by hair_pie_face Mar 18, 2014 1:49 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 18, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    Just want mention I had a similar experience not long ago. I also found it frustrating when there was a bid for say 3900 at .32 and I would enter a buf for 10000 at .33, immediately, before you could say 'encyclopedia', the bid for 3900 at .32 was now a bid for 3900 at .3301 (one hundredth of a penny ahead of mine). I used to see this happen all the time when I put in limit orders for options which I don't do a lot of any more. It has to be high speed electronic. But the software may be glitchy. It's happened to me. I had to CXR it to get it to execute.

  • Reply to

    Only thing I see

    by mmac4207 Mar 18, 2014 11:47 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 18, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    FYI - This is a news blurb from when the ANC, a couple years ago, made it their official stance not to nationalize the Platinum industry: "After years of debate, South Africa’s ruling party African National Congress rejected Thursday plans to nationalize the country’s mining sector, but voted in favour of higher taxes in the world’s main producer of platinum and chrome.“The issue of nationalization as we’ve discussed it during the past few months is off the table. The ANC affirms its historical position on this topic – strategic ownership where deemed necessary,” said Malusi Gigaba, the public enterprises minister, as quoted by The Africa Report. The party removed any reference to expropriation in its policy recommendations and promised a bigger role for a state-controlled mining company. According to The Globe and Mail, South African authorities have frequently expressed opposition to nationalization, but the matter stayed on the agenda for years “because the ANC did not take an official stand, and the supporters of nationalization have remained vocal and active.”Earlier this year, ANC's national executive committee commissioned a report exploring the issue of nationalization and what it would mean for the country. The researchers proposed a 50% tax on all "super profits" from mining companies and a reduction of royalties from 4% to 1% ."

  • Reply to

    Only thing I see

    by mmac4207 Mar 18, 2014 11:47 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 18, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    This is stupid and illegal. They invite investors to come in, spend moeny, help the economy, and do the development then they steal it? They may think this is a clever way to increase productivity but it is going to result in the oppposite. Productivity is increased by contribution, by doing work, investing money and time. 'Stealing' cuts into productivity and will result in losses, as investors shy away and operations close up. Mugabwe, the perverse and murderous thief that rules Zimbabwe made their currency totally worthless. Even a 100 million Zimbabwe dollar bill is not worth the paper it is printed on. He believes in nationalization with him being the nation. He stole all the farmland from white owners and murdered anyone who tried to stay. This is not how to improve the economy. It is illegal by international law. Most of those farms are going to waste as they don't know enough about farm management to maintain them, so now they have less food. History is full of evidence to support that nationalizing and stealing does more harm than good. It is highly corrupt. According to wiki : "The traditional Western stance on compensation was expressed by United States Secretary of State Cordell Hull during the 1938 Mexican nationalization of the petroleum industry that compensation should be "prompt, effective and adequate." According to this view, the nationalizing state is obligated under international law to pay the deprived party the full value of the property taken."In Socialist countries, there is the idea that the sovereign state should be able to confiscate anything that was taken or developed throguh exploitation (Mugabwe's view too). But even that excuse would not hold up with PLG. PLG has done everything by the book, paid its way, forming egalitarian and respectful relationships with the local communities. Wiki also says: "In 1962, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Resolution 1803, "Permanent Sovereignty over National Resources", which states that in the event of nationalization, the owner "shall be paid appropriate compensation in accordance with international law." Taking ownership even partial ownership without appropriate (which I interpret as "full market value") compensation is illegal according to this. For South Africa this is hardly a step forward.

  • Reply to

    Only thing I see

    by mmac4207 Mar 18, 2014 11:47 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 18, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    For now that only applies to petroleum. But it has modified something relating to mines. It is a scary grab of Oil which will undoubtedly reduce investment in SA. This is from a release: " South Africa’s ruling African National Congress used its parliamentary majority to push through changes to laws that companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. say will curb investment.

    The amended 2002 Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act will secure the state a free 20 percent stake in all new energy ventures and enable it to buy an unspecified additional share at an “agreed price.” It will also enable the mines minister to declare some minerals strategic and force companies processing them to sell some output to local manufacturers.

    So for now they are keeping their word that they would not nationalize the Platinum mining industry.

  • jackgotney jackgotney Mar 17, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    As long as I've been watching, as much as they always increase the number of ounces they mine, the reserves increase faster than they are depleted. Hope it keeps up and it seems we have a very big increase this year counting Brigus and the latest rich vein strikes in San Dimas. I think we are in very good shape.

  • Reply to

    Scratching my head...

    by mmac4207 Mar 10, 2014 2:39 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 14, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    PLG is trading at its 200 MDA so at least we should see strong support here. That said, it is cheap at this price. The balance sheet shows that their property plant and equipment is valued at a little over $200,000,000.00. However it doesn't account really for the NPV (which is really an estimate of future cash flows in and out discounted at their borrowing rate) of the projects and potential projects associated with the property. The NPV of planned Bushveld and Waterberg (just counting the first 5 kms) adds up to roughly and conservatively to about $1 billion (including costs of course). Then there is the rest of Waterberg which could double or triple this NPV. It is just a matter of time. Longs will be laughing all the way to the bank. At a dollar ten, this will be a ten bagger inside six years. Put some money here, ;eave it alone and just watch it grow.

  • Reply to

    Nice chart for growth

    by jeffnrt Mar 14, 2014 10:44 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 14, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    The more the merrier. The way I like to look at this is that every quarter this stock gives me $900 back. That itself knocks down my 'amount invested'. The forward yield goes up based on the smaller remaining amount I have invested. In about 11 years I will still have my 9000 shares and I will have all my money back as well. That is how to accumulate stock for free. Repeat the above on another high yield div stock (which is growing and has a sustainable dividend) and so on. By the time you get old you will have a stock portfolio that built itself. Best is do it in the IRA where you can defer all the taxes. I am 60 but I plan to live into the triple digits lololol.

  • Reply to

    50% increase in shorts - buyer beware....

    by beachbum2be Mar 12, 2014 7:20 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 14, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    FYI - I am not too worried about the overbought signal. PPP was this overbought back in August 2012 when it was at about $3.50, and it didn't stop rising over the next few months until it doubled in price to $7 by November. Technical and day traders who sold as soon as it got overbought, missed out on a short term 100% gain.

  • Reply to

    Anyone know?

    by ggray1956 Mar 10, 2014 9:00 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 13, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    I don't mean to sound like I am pumping this, but I have been long before in PPP from 2.25 to 7 and then recently from 4.50 to about 5.25. I feel that this company is just going to continue to surprise me. I think it is low risk and good value as well as great balance sheet - no dilution worries ahead - and we are more diversified than before. 400,000 ounces a year in 2016? 9 digit positive cash flow. Great new properties with astonishing high grade veins, and now we have more to make on silver this year according to getting ahead on our silver contract. This is easily a 3 bagger by then end of 2016. Yes I am looking at 'in the 20s'. I didn't go all in because I have other good prospects and at my age I have to stay diversified. But I loaded up on 3500 shares this morning and even though that won't make me rich, it will definitely contribute to my portfolio performance in the coming years. Cheers J

  • jackgotney jackgotney Mar 13, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    in 2004 CONX was at 1.05 and in 2002 it hit 1.35 intraday high. Aren't we better off than we were then? Looks like we have growth potential and economy is growing at least in the US. I think management has done a good job relative to the average company at this stage. I think it has been difficult for them to grow their profit margins. Top line growth is very important. I think some companies, even big ones, get so caught up in growing revenues they think the end justifies the means, and they may not be that dumb but it seems costs always begin to rise in tandem in the process as well. That is the lion they want to tame. Everything else about this company seems to be A grade. I wouldn't put them down for being old school. They are good which is not bad, but it would be so much better if they kept costs steady. Can anyone do that? Is it possible? I am hoping so.

  • Reply to

    Scratching my head...

    by mmac4207 Mar 10, 2014 2:39 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 12, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Well $1.10 is the 200 day moving average for PLG. I think we are going to find strong support there if we even touch 1.10. It is rare to get 5 down days in a row anyway. It could be one of technicals moves we longs jus have to endure. Pt has been fairly strong. Let's see tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Concerned that the word was out

    by participant42 Mar 12, 2014 8:28 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 12, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    and not long ago we were waiting for the paint to dry

  • Reply to

    Scratching my head...

    by mmac4207 Mar 10, 2014 2:39 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Mar 12, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    same thing with the inflation rate - whenever inflation is too high or low they have changed the weighted basket of goods that is used to determine it. I think currently based on 20th century baskets of goods we are approaching double digit inflation. However that would not help our economic outlook nor the Feds ability to borrow at low low rates.

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