First Solar, Inc. Message Board

Also I found this (I have the impression that the Brilacidin trials should be at the shorter end of the range since it shouldn't take very long to see whether they work or not - and I think we'd get the biggest bang for the buck just contracting the manufacturing of Brilacidin and we'd be resellers and just compete head on with the inferior products) :

Clinical research (phase I-III) takes 2-10 years, on average 5 years

A single clinical trial in phase II-III will typically take anywhere from 1 year to 7 years from conceptual to publication) depending on therapeutic area and duration of individual subject participation.

Phase II

Phase II trials involve testing a small number of volunteer patients, typically 100 to 200 people who suffer from the targeted disease or condition, to determine the drug’s effectiveness and dose response relationship. This phase of the drug development process lasts an average of one to two years.

A phase III study in acute pain may be completed within 6 months whereas a study in PD looking for neuroprotection may take more like 5-7 years.

NDA review takes 2 months to 7 years (on average 24 months)
Fast Track ~ 6 months

FDA approved 24 first of kind drugs in 2008 (vs. 18 in 2007, 22 in 2006 and 20 in 2005 (WSJ 1/2/2008). FDA missed the approval deadline for 32 out of 159 drug applications through 10/31/2008.

Patents are good for 17 years..companys want to maximize their ability to have have an exclusive market for as long as possible, thus adhering to realistic yet stringent timelines is essential for drug development

I agree they will have to do more than 1 for 10 on the reverse split to effect their plan while only doing 1 for 10 on the issuable will give them more ability to raise money through future stock offerings. A reverse split is not evil in itself. Whether or not it benefits us depends completely on how they spend the cash raised. But even at 1 for 33 they will still have a lot of remaining stock issuable. Using their numbers, goals, assumptions, which are 25,000,000 issuable, and doing a reverse split on the stock to achieve a price of $5.00, and their initial PPS of .155 (based on the price suggested in the proxy which is on their website and dated 2/22/13), I would be targeting a 33 for 1 split. This would leave the number of shares outstanding at about 3.2 million. Then to raise the 25 million they would offer 5 million at $5 which would leave us with an outstanding of about 8 million shares and the company would have their 25,000,000 cash. They would still have about 17 million shares additional issuable. Doing 1 for 50 doesn't buy them a lot, but if the price necessitates it that is another issue, hopefully not. But regardless, the million dollar question is then, "will this be enough to carry the company to the point where it can survive off its revenue and grow organically". Will they maximize the return on this cash by investing it only in projects with reasonable return and reasonable risk and payback periods that are within our lifetimes. Will they strive to contain costs? One thing certain to expect with a lower outstanding, losses will be higher per share, but on the other hand, when they become profitable, the EPS and growth when positive, will be a lot higher per share than with a large number of shares out. Given all that, the price of this stock is much more likely to rise after the financing to higher levels than if it was not done. It is better than borrowing so it is their best option. Will be glad? This all depends again on how effectively the cash and the technology is managed toward building a viable business model (with top and bottom line growth, and I stress, 'including positive cash flow').

sheeze! - (I am at work and lack of time is partly why I am not thorough enough - I apologize for wasting anyone's time but also have interest in what is going on here) - OK I went back to my spreadsheet and for $5 and based on the current price of ~.125 we are looking at a 1 for 40 split to achieve $5 PPS. They could then raise their $25 million and have the ablity to raise another $75 milion. My 100000 shares would then turn into 2500 shares of the same total value. Company would have a bigger war chest and a better footing. If they do 1 for 30 they would need to assume a price equivalent to what now would be ~$0.168. Current shareholders would like that better. I'd wind up with 3334 shares.

OK I got to read the proxy and I have a better grip on the logic and I'd like to retract my less informed opinion. The proxy states they need to raise $25 million. with 250 million shares authorized they only have 69 million remaining they can issue and this means they can only raise $10 million if PYMX can be issued at .155 which is dubious. OK not enough. They propose a 1 for 10 RS (not enough) and up to 50 to 1 (more than enough). But 1 for 10 would be obviously inadequate (to anyone with a calculator) since if the total number of unauthorized shares would then be 6.9 million. At 1/10 the original number, (25 mill/ 250 mill), this leaves the same relative inability to raise more than about 10 million. Within the constraints of the second proposal of reducing the authorized shares to 25 million, I drew up a spreadsheet. At .125 they'd need at least a 1 for 15 split to raise nearly 25 million using all the remaining shares. I see something more like this happening: A 1 for 20 split, which theoretically will put our shares at about $2.50 (but 1/20th the quantity of shares so my 100000 shares would now be 5000 shares at $2.50). Then they could raise 25 million on 10 million shares, and have nearly 6 million shares issuable remaining for future use. That is what I expect and since this event, by stablilizing and positioning them financially would definitely increase the value of the company, I would vote for it. But if they have calculators and are using them I am pretty sure this will happen in the 1 for 20 or 1 for 25 range.

RS is a dumb idea. It adds no value, does nothing for solvency, and gives a bad impression. In this case it additionally reduces liquidity which is not what you want with a penny stock. What we need is revenues, but how long is it, if everything continues positively, before Brilacidin is in the market? Aside from government funding wouldn't that be our first source of revenues? I am aware the company needs financing soon, so they need to lower costs too. If the ex-ceo was just blindly driving us off a cliff, how will the interim CEO keep us away from the edge? A company like this needs to focus on its tech, and the markets that would be interested in its tech, and a solid fiscal plan. I can't imagine they will fool anyone with a reverse split! They need an action with some meaning to it, like a line of credit maybe and some government funding, an interested partner with deeper pockets.
PS thanks for the info - this is my only recent investment that is down. I got in at .14 but now I am not sure if this company has the what it takes management-wise. Promising technology, but needs more time, and without financing we won't have time! Again why waste time on the false impressions of a reverse split? We need financing to keep in operation.

How can anyone who gives this more than .5 of an iota of attention consider this anything but undervalued. This company is valued by the serious analysts at a discount of its net tangible asset value meaning that it is valued below its net tangible asset value to account for the time and cost it will take to begin mining operations and generating cash. They are ahead of schedule. The bulk of their assets are yet unaccounted for, as they have only assessed a fraction of the Platinum that it is believed they are sitting on, so it is likely undervlaued, and the analysts have projected 12 month price targets on average of 1.70 as they speculate their inferred resources are probably going to increase. The ridiculous thing is that the stock is selling at a serious discount to the discount even applied to it by the analysts. It could be broken up and sold for its parts for more than its current market cap. Even the inside management considers it undervalued here as they continue to accumulate wherever they can in the market. To put this on an overvalued list merely marks your analytical skills as useless and misguided, seriously lacking. This will be a cash machine in 3 or 4 years if it isn't bought out before then. No doubt you overvalue your research and your opinion as well because it has no value whatsoever.

I am newer here than that and couldn't find mention in any of the PRs or headlines. It would not be a great idea since they already have a small to average size float. They should focus on ways to garner lots of positive attention through trials, and marketing maybe in their CCs and at industry conferences. They have some very promising tech.

Hefty volume again today. I noticed insider buying/ accumulation continues even after executives bought into the financing. One thing, it seems there has been fairly active insider buying for years at every price point!
Feb 22/13 Feb 21/13 Begic, Kris Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 4,000 $1.35

Feb 22/13 Feb 21/13 Begic, Kris Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 400 $1.36

Feb 22/13 Feb 21/13 Begic, Kris Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 3,300 $1.35

Feb 6/13 Feb 5/13 Hallam, Frank Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 5,500 $1.25

Feb 5/13 Feb 4/13 Jones, R. Michael Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 5,700 $1.20

Feb 5/13 Feb 4/13 Jones, R. Michael Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 4,300 $1.18

FYI: There was a Platinum acquisiton announced today "Jubilee Executes Transactional Agreements to acquire Platinum Australia Limited ("PLA") ("the Transaction")"

I got it earlier today and realized I didn't get your message when I posted the response. That said I also wondered about the implications of the issue price. It seems a little on the cheap side to me, but stock financings always seem to lowball it. But I can consider that is how they get buyers lined up. The deal gets on and everybody is happy who is in on the deal, including shareholders because the company says in operation. If you want to sell something in bulk you generally have to give a slight discount (like with Groupon or in wholesale). The last two stocks I owned where this happened, very temporarily dipped but then took off above where it was before the announcement. I think these deals get hedged to protect the price, If the deal is done privately it may not impact the stock price by much, considering the cash obtained buttresses the book value. The value to shareholders will be in how the money is invested, hopefully increasing the return over what it would have been without the financing.

I thought a 3rd quarter report was pending an approval from our partner China, did I get that wrong? It looks to me like there will be no 3rd quarter report. I guess pink sheets don't have to report. Information is a very hard nut to crack. We do have new advisors, board members. I feel the investment is safe due to the informative enthusiastic letter (due to the contents) to shareholders and the association with the new board members, and last but not least that our products are featured at Pepsico's new R&D center in China, and that Pepsico has established a relationship with Tangyi. I am hoping for some good news such as orders, and this year some new money flow, and some info about what is going on in Europe. Also it would be nice to have this promised website up and running where IDC can describe their technology, operations, partnerships, management, provide convenient access to company related information, PRs etc... My expectations are rising. But it is so quiet. But as we know, quietness often precedes big things like tsunamis, storms, etc... I hope we are about to get hit by a tsunami of orders, customers, money, and all the good things we have been waiting for all our lives (which could happen if the stock price lives up to its forecast:)

that was your average price? good for you. Mine was sloghtly higher, but I wouldn't sell yet. the technicals look pretty healthy nice bullish trend. I would wait at least until we are in the overbought area. cheers. Looks good long term too.

Next I hope they will stop creating new coal plants every week and obtain their energy instead from hydrogen fuel obtained through hydrolysis using platinum anodes and cathodes (and of course the electricity to power the hydrolysis will come from solar panels) - That would be the cleaner.

Yes it looks like Fidelity has alomt 8.5% of the shares and it looks to me like it is for their mutual funds. I am mostly invested because of their sound approach and their pipeline (which you can peruse in their 'pipeline' tab on their website. and the apparent success therein. I am personally a little afraid of the growing prevalence of MRSA and even TB which has also developed a powerful resistance. Anyway Brilacidin appears to be effective against them. I am sure if we get through to FDA approval every hospital around the world will want to be equipped with it. I read that Drug resistant TB is endemic in Russian hospitals. MRSA infection deaths (mainly contracted in hospitals) in America seems to be just growing and very hard to prevent infection. It causes over 300000 hospitalizations per year and about 20,000 deaths in the US (outdoing Al Qaeda by a landslide). Other pipelines could be very lucrative as well, if not all of them. If this approach proves out and their pipeline pathways continue to demostrate success, finally resulting in commercial products, we will not only be a wealthier as shareholders, but healthier (not sure about wiser - my mother says we actually get stupider with age, but she is in her 90s so for some that might continue to be a struggle).
PS I sense a tone of sarcasm on this board, is that from waiting for the water to boil as in terms of waiting for trial results?

Iridium is 10 times rare than Platinum and Osmium is 30 times rare than Platinum. I think any increase in demand on Iridium would drive up prices quickly (only 3 tonnes produced and consumed annually). But one reason both metals (both within the platinum group?) are not preferred over Platinum is that they are brittle and is that they are much more difficult to work with (i.e. machine) with higher melting points etc..).

In regard to my mention of OLED dislpays: All the new AMOLED screens contain, in each emitting molecule (an Organometallic compound), an atom of Platinum. As a result of spin-orbit coupling they have long lived excited states and high luminescent quantum yields (an efficient mix of singlet and triplet exciton states allowing a nearly 100% conversion of electricity into light campared with incandescent with converts only about 25% of the electricity to light and the rest to heat). Iridium and Osmium are also studied but so far the platinum complexes are the only ones in commercial use. This industry has been taking off in the last couple years with Smasung and LG competing to get the first large AMOLED TVs on the market. It is a fairly new technology and is cost competitive against LCD on small to medium sized screens. It is expected to replace most interior lighting technology, as well as all display technology, in the next 10 years, and I can tell you that in this particular application they can not replace platinum with palladium. Some rare earth materials (atoms) may substitute but are also 'rare' and expensive and will not be cheaper, if that is the goal. So perhaps this could be expected to materially increase demand for platinum in the future. The display layer is only about 5 or 10 molecules thick but consider the real estate covered by all lighting, and all displays.

The thing is Platinum is 30 times rarer than gold, a little more dificult to mine, but is very hard, denser than gold, and an extremely stable metal (the least reactive metal), a great conductor, and is an integral component of the optimized catalytic converter which includes palladium and platinum. If you don't mind it not being yellow it is better than gold for jewelry (harder, feels more substantial, polishes better, and does not scratch as easily). It is now also used in organic small molecule LED (OLED) which is being increasingly used in self emitting screens (smart phones and TVs next). You can find substitutes but they won't be as good. i.e. palladium... but oh well I don't think you can so easily replace it. I think Amplats' situation is kind of shocking. They should probably go belly up. It looks like PLG may become the only stable platinum producer. As it stands, Amplats, if they can continue to exist, will be smelting all the concentrate we produce at Busheld.