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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

jackgotney 213 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 2:31 PM Member since: Nov 19, 2009
  • Reply to

    Good News, The Paint is Dry!

    by hair_pie_face May 16, 2014 3:04 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 16, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Next holiday is Memorial day so let's look forward to that. But the better news is we closed the week at .37!!! Besides, all those people back then (in the days of yore) spoke in foreign languages that are no longer spoken today. Who the hel* would understand them anyway? By the way in both Islam and Christianity there has been some confusion over translating the words relating to 'virgin'. References to Mary as a "virgin' in modern translations come from the original word in Aramaic for 'engaged', I suppose we all assume 'engaged' women are still virgins, but at the time the word only meant 'engaged' according to scholars of ancient Aramaic. And we know there have been no scientifically documented virgin births of male in any species of any living creature. Without a male sperm donor, the offspring can not be anything but a female clone of the mother, as all documented virgin births to date evidence. In regard to the 70 'virgins' that male Muslims believe will be theirs to feast on after they die, if they die in the name Alla, or in a Jihad, a group of Islamic scholars reviewing early Islamic scriptures believe now that the real meaning of the symbol interpreted as 'virgins was 'raisens'. The two symbols were almost identical and every other thing being rewarded at this afterlife feast was a fruit or some kind of edible, so in the context of the passage listing out the vairous foods on the table, 70 raisens would be far more consistent. But, off course, er..I mean 'of course', men being the interpreters of these things no doubt (always have faith), were probably more likely thinking of virgins than of raisens or engaged women. We are always more inclined to see what we want to see, or even expect to see, than what is really there. As Jimi Hendrix said, and believe me I don't often quote him, "you can't believe everything you see and hear" (anyway).

  • jackgotney jackgotney May 15, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    I didn't read it all correctly - My impression is it was a bumpy quarter - need to listen to the call - I will let them manage the spin. But costs are dropping as a % of revenue which implies some economies of scale. Cheers - now they can go back to growing revenues, plus I want to see a sustained 10% earnings growth YOY. - will listen to the call when I get a chance. Looks like we are back to .30 for now!

  • jackgotney jackgotney May 15, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Earnings up 9% QOQ but revs down 1.8% (virtually flat - a difference of $45,000). Phospholipid sales growing faster than Aspirin works both moneywise and %-wise, though both grew over 20%. Contract manufacturing fell off a cliff unfortunately (70% drop). Is that related to timing of payments? R&D Grant revenue up 171%. Overall in total pretty flat, but costs are down even more so their earnings ar up 9% over last year, though some it due to non-cash items. Shipping and Other (which I have no idea what that entails (down 46%). Anyway still growing. Taking the right approach. I assume they have been focusing on reducing costs. Now they can go back to growing revenues. Lets try for a big 4th quarter with 368,000 in earnings. That would be a big boy step. A solid .02 per share for the year. Next year do 1.2 million in revenues. Keep it up!

  • Reply to

    The LG agreement...when and why

    by carne8ielaker May 14, 2014 4:28 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 15, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    FYI - Last week UDC recieved a patent app approval for the first highly efficient copper based PHOLED: 3-COORDINATE COPPER(I)-CARBENE COMPLEXES: Abstract: Devices comprising an organic light emitting device are provided. The devices can include an anode; a cathode; and an organic layer, disposed between the anode and the cathode. The organic layer comprising at least one host material comprising a phosphorescent complex comprising novel phosphorescent trigonal copper carbene complexes. The complex comprise a carbene ligand coordinated to a three coordinate copper atom. The complex may be used in organic light emitting devices. In particular, the complexes may be especially useful in OLEDs used for lighting applications. Phosphorescent OLEDs have relied largely on heavy metal complexes as emitters. In particular, devices often utilize emitters containing Ir or Pt to induce spin orbit coupling. Tetrahedral copper complexes have been reported, and are known to phosphoresce at room temperature. However, tetrahedral copper complexes may have certain limitations. In particular, flattening distortions may increase the non-radiative rate, which leads to a decrease in luminescence efficiency. Trigonal planar copper carbene complexes have now been found to give efficient phosphorescence at room temperature. We believe that this is the first observation of phosphorescence from trigonal planar copper complexes. [0130] Trigonal planar copper complexes may also have several advantages for use in OLEDs. In particular, the trigonal planar copper complexes have comparatively short lifetimes, in the tens of microsecond range (see Table 1). Table 1 shows the lifetimes of several different trigonal planar copper carbene complexes. Generally, the lifetime of the trigonal copper complex is longer than an Ir complex (i.e., 1-10 .mu.s) but shorter than that of a platinum porphyrin complex.

  • Reply to

    The LG agreement...when and why

    by carne8ielaker May 14, 2014 4:28 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 14, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    UDC does have a short term agreement with them. One thing with SAmsung and LG, the agreements always seem to take forever, like they aren't going to happen and then suddenly there they are. If it is any comfort the agreements are retroactive regarding licensing and royalties, and usually there is a paymnet for back due and an upfront payment and then whatever agreement they have kicks in.

  • Reply to

    Thanks to whoever....

    by mmac4207 May 14, 2014 9:57 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 14, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    I also found this HSBC bullish on PT: The prices of Platinum witnessed steady fall during the past six months, falling all the way from levels as high as $1,550 per oz down to $1,420 per oz. The falling gold prices injected weakness in other precious metal class including Platinum. According to HSBC, the future does not look as gloomy, primarily due to the tightening supply from mines.

    As per the HSBC report, automotive market will turn out to be the main driver for platinum demand. The recovery in European automotive production will boost the demand for Platinum. HSBC pegs the year-on-year demand growth for Platinum in 2014 at 7.4% in Europe, China and India.

    The ongoing labor strikes at the South African mines have forced mining majors to rethink on their investment plans. In the likelihood of the strike extending until May, the industry may have to face a massive production loss to the tune of 750,000 oz, which could lead the market into deficit. Consequently, platinum prices are likely to zoom. Miners are increasingly focused on optimization techniques which could bring about significant cost reduction at mines, rather than investing in high-cost ounces.

    HSBC forecasts 7% growth to Platinum prices over the year to average at $1,595 per oz during 2014. The bank also forecasts the prices of Platinum to rise 16% year-on-year to $1,850 per oz in 2015.

    Re catalytic converters: The catalyst itself is most often a mix of precious metals. Platinum is the most active catalyst and is widely used, but is not suitable for all applications because of unwanted additional reactions and high cost. Palladium and rhodium are two other precious metals used. Rhodium is used as a reduction catalyst, palladium is used as an oxidation catalyst, and platinum is used both for reduction and oxidation.

  • Reply to

    10Q filed May 19

    by creakykier May 13, 2014 10:11 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 14, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    me either. the 60,000 in cash worried me. but that was the end of March. The latest Form D shows they are wokring a ($15 million?) offering and have completed like 1/10 of it. From the information they publish, the strongest point is their technology and their relationships with the researchers. The next is the management team. The weakest point is the lack of revenues and cash (which the offering is addressing until they get revenues), countered by several working relationships with potential licensees,. The weak financial situation also contrasts with their salaries so that is a potential turn off. I think they should have a decent, but not sky high, base salaries at least at the start, and have eventual raises and bonuses tied to their performance on the financial front with bonuses coming out of excess cash, and salaries raised as a small percent of revenue. I think their salaries put the company at risk. You really have to make money before you can pay yourself. That said it is possible they know there will be a lot of money coming in shortly that will make their salaries moot. In that case no one will care. My only final concern is the stock goes to 7 or above to 10, and not to 0. Personally I think a big solar company would pay 500 million or more worth of stock for all the patents, That would be okay too. Then we are all happy (not just the management).

  • Reply to

    Thanks to whoever....

    by mmac4207 May 14, 2014 9:57 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 14, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Platinum is 1472 bid and looks like we are heading back into the 1500s. I believe Pt is continuing its uptrend which should not reverse until in the mid 1600s. It seems to be taking longer than I thought, but this week we are up almost $50! PLG is not yet reacting to the strength in Pt, but inherently its value increases with every dollar Pt rises, as our future operating margins rise in tandem. If you remember the plan is to be mining hundreds of thousands of ounces of Pt a year. I think with Waterberg and Bushveld we could be pushing 1 million ounces a year by the end of the decade. Who cares? I don't know. I suppose not many people have ever heard of PLG. But it will become better known next year, and through 2020, granted a lot can happen in 6 years. But if we don't get bought out, we should be seeing a very strong cash flow, probably in the 9 figures at these Pt price levels, with debt getting paid off etc... Also Palladium well into the 800s range.

  • jackgotney jackgotney May 13, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    mmac don't tell them. I am also buying at 1.03.Shhhh. they are worried about their fears and so forth - while PLG is actually increasing in value as Waterberg officially gets bigger, and the temporal distance between now and when they begin mining shrinks.shhhhh.

  • jackgotney jackgotney May 13, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    Yeah we once thought Sony might become an OLED leader with its small OLED TVs but it had yield problems and pretty much dropped out. Samsung gfocused on the small hanging fruit and LG tackled the large screen venue as we know now with much success and we longs are overjoyed with their progress. LG has been bragging about their high yields and plans for ramping up their 55 inch AMOLED TVs this year. Anyway lighting is simmering in the background too. I never understood why OLED had so many shorts. I also never quite understood the stock's price behavior. It is still acting a little weird. It used to drive me crazy when it would go from 3 to 21 and back down to 6 with no news or PRs. This drop today I can't seem to get my head around. But it should be a 50 dollar stock and we had astellar report that drove the price up several dollars and then all of a sudden sellers came in to puch it down. Must be those option gremlins trying to shake everyone out I still think they will make sure it closes within ,.25 (25 cents) of 27 on Friday at 4PM just to make sure those 1500 27 May puts expire worthless on saturday and don't get excercised.. .

  • Reply to

    Happy Easter

    by luke_sky_walk_er Apr 20, 2014 9:28 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 13, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    I wasn't there so I can't say. But I did provide the sources. The main sources and most of this is just what was recorded by Constantines Historian and scribe Eusebius. Did he make it up? Justin was involved in editing the books and so was Eusebius, and this Nicaean Council of 325 was an historically recorded event and there was another 381. Did it really happen? Was Constantine a pagan as he was alleged to be and according to his records? But In my earlier posts I referenced the sections of matthew that were tranlsated from the Mahabarata. The source of the name Hesus Christos. The reason Jesus' life so closely paralles that of Mithra, seems evidenced by the fact that Constantine was a Pagan, basically with the incentive to unify his Empire under one common religion that entertained aspects of each religion or culture, but especially his and the monotheirstic sun worshiping cults that were so popular at the time (he was a member of both of the most prominent sun worshipping cults (Sol Invictus & Mithraism).Then came later, the more modern Christianity you are referring to which emerged in the 15th century. It seems everything gets re-translated, reinvented based on who is in control. Most of us are rigid in the beliefs were were trained in and inherited from our parents so I do not try to unconvert or convert anyone away from their beliefs. But I think it is good to know where the beliefs came from. I was brought up in the same modern Christian beliefs so I know what we are supposed to believe. It is actually a great story and probably there are a lot of benefits to believing. But whether I believe the earth is flat or not, I feel it is probably good to know what is true. Others have different feelings and don't care what is true, and put belief above fact, and truth etc... because they are always told that faith is more important and settles all. I am glad I live in America where I and everyone can choose their own way of life and beliefs or lack thereof.

  • jackgotney jackgotney May 13, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    I agree - Did you see my earlier reference to the article about how they (I think it was FSLR) are working with Australian miners to design new energy systems based on a hybrid combination of deisle generators and solar panels, significantly reducing their energy costs? If it is a good idea, copy it.

  • Reply to

    So tired of the bot post

    by mmac4207 May 7, 2014 9:34 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 13, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    the bot posters are programmed to copty other posts and reply as if they are resoectfully responding with a dumb idiotic remark like 'you are smart' or 'I love your posts' and I mean really stupid 3 or 4 word statements that human beings would never make. I mean it is such a waste of time and space. We can all tell it is computer generated clutter, and it only makes us real humans not want to ever buy or try their product.

  • Reply to

    Option expiration

    by greendaywalker May 12, 2014 4:13 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 12, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    I still ahve my shares - just sold the calls. I checked the open int for puts and calls just to follow up on what I suggested in my previous post. Based on open interest, it looks like in order to have the most puts and calls expire worthless, a price of 27 would be targeted for example if there was one or possibly more major option writer(s) and it or they had the leverage to manipulate a stock like this for a point or 2 regardless of news or interest. I remember this used to happen all the time predictably for IDCC when I was watching that one for the entire year this rule was only broken like once or twice. So it would not surprise me if we closed near 27 on Friday (at a price where the puts or calls would not be worth exercising). Disclaimer - this is only based on about about a dozen observations so it may be coincidental and not a phenomena as it appears it might be. I agree this stock deserves to be in the mid 30s easy, but I also know the IP model is hard to understand for some, and so it is a good value here at least. I am keeping my shares - they are very cheap here, but still glad I sold my calls (I am not a good predicter of short term - but got lucky this time - however this reminds me of the risk in options and I doubt I will continue to dabble in them).

  • Reply to

    Option expiration

    by greendaywalker May 12, 2014 4:13 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 12, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    As soon as the buying at market petered out some heavy selling came in which I thought might be manipulative selling. Was is short selling? I don't know. I did sell all my options, the junes and mays, while OLED was at or above 29 and boy am I glad. But in some stocks I have seen definitive price moevement toward where the price where the majority of open calls and puts would expire worthless. But even though i perceive it as manipulation I don't know for sure (which came first the chicken or the egg or another question might be did they both somehow develop in tandem?)

  • Reply to

    People need to apologize to Rich7011 here

    by armynutcase May 12, 2014 4:18 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 12, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    you are tryly living up to your name 'nut case'

  • Reply to

    Canacoord raises PT now, lol, $28.50

    by jmuronis May 12, 2014 3:10 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 12, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    analysts are almost always behind the 8 ball - unfortunately they seem to have an influence at the same time.

  • jackgotney jackgotney May 12, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    So the 400% EPS beat doesn't count after one day? I am glad I sold my calls when ti was at 29. I had triple digits % in such a short time, I cashed in, as 'too good to be true doesn't usually last very long' and if it did pull back those returns would fail quickly. I didn't think it would pull back like this so quickly. Lot of stupid 'bunkum' out there a sone poster put it. The Street blurb is one case in point a lot of fragmented statements about OLED being up or down as if that meant something, 'too soon to buy'. Okay 'folks' on the street. Have a *safe day* and be sure not to trust any of those wooden nickles you may encounter floating around out there, or blowing in the wind as they may or may not have any value yet, but it's too soon to know.

  • Reply to

    Why the spike in volume

    by imamveryverylong May 9, 2014 2:42 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 9, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    One thing for shorts to consider before the long weekend. OLED technicals strongly bullish now as we just went from being oversold with rsi=20 and MACD down, to now RSI=53 or more (*RSI crossing from below 50 to above 50 is a buy trigger for some), and MACD crossed up. This may turn OLED back into a bullish trend before very long. It was stuck in a trading range in the low to mid 30s before the recent drop, and that is where the 50 and 200MDAs are so there could be some resistence there next week, but not sure what will happen if momentum continues and OLED penetrates into the upper 30s. If it does it too quickly though OLED could seem overbought, though being overbought hasn't always stopped OLED from going up further. I think OLED looks better now than it did when it hit 60 a few years ago. I always prefer fundamentals and if one contradicts the other I stick with the fundamental based reasoning, though I have traded on basic technicals in the past. I based my recent trades (buy stock and calls) on both.

  • Reply to

    8 million + shares short ...

    by cap_depreciation_fund May 9, 2014 12:41 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney May 9, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    You might see more covering toward the end of day going into the weekend. Brokers may force some shorts to cover Monday, and they buy at market when they do. Oh the pain of being on the wrong side of the coin. It must hurt. Not sure why they think that's a good strategy though.

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