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Pepsico, Inc. Message Board

jackgotney 4001 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 2:21 PM Member since: Nov 19, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Drop .03 cents at close.

    by mmac4207 Jan 21, 2015 5:33 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 22, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    but watch out if you don't account for the spreads and commissions too. It might not be worth it.

  • jackgotney by jackgotney Jan 22, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Metals and stocks up again. EUR probably down. Draghi approved ECB stimulus of long term bond buying plan (Europes QE stimulus), which seemed to work for us, and which we are just ending. Pt up $12.00 and Bid 1282.

  • Reply to

    Another Day PLG Outperforming the Physical

    by jackgotney Jan 20, 2015 3:59 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 20, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Hopefully for the winter (what bears do LOL). This is so bullish we could be recovering to over $1.00. Up 7% on 6 times the average volume, closing close to the high? Those hyenas only bark when the price is falling.

  • Cheers Longs!

  • jackgotney by jackgotney Jan 20, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    It looks like we dipped and recovered to flat. We may have double the average volume by Noon. Metals continue climbing. Pt Bid $1279; Pd Bid 773; gold bid $1294

  • Reply to

    CHINA GDP BEATS ESTIMATES

    by buyplatinum Jan 19, 2015 10:29 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 20, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    Little 2.78% pop in Palladium leads metals higher this morning.

  • PLG was up over 11% or 17 times that. I guess the bashbash poster isn't going to gloat today.

  • Reply to

    Reply to dtowntrone

    by bigsee4c Jan 9, 2015 3:30 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 16, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    You can see how the treasury rates have dropped recently due to deflationary fears. The 10 yr is at 1.77 currently and the 3 year is about .75%. If they do raise lending rates in that kind of environment it will be or seem contrived and unnecessary.

  • Reply to

    Reply to dtowntrone

    by bigsee4c Jan 9, 2015 3:30 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 16, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    I agree. The article might be pro-China biased. But but their forecast for 2014 of 8% was pretty on the mark. And their new forecast is for 2015 is 7%, so if that is accurate the rate of slowing growth is slowing!

  • Reply to

    Reply to dtowntrone

    by bigsee4c Jan 9, 2015 3:30 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 16, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    cont...
    That turnaround came after a meagre 2.3 per cent increase in November, the worst month in terms of sales growth last year. Despite a single-month pick-up, the weakness in the economy has taken a toll on the world’s largest auto market, with sales turning sluggish since August, when growth slowed to 4 per cent and then 2.5 per cent in September#$%$ said vehicles sales this year are expected to see a stable growth of 7 per cent, in step with the wider economy. But the exports markets would remain uncertain because of the political instability in some countries in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, he said. The association has forecast exports to drop by another 5 per cent to about 860,000 units this year from 2014.

    My point was basically that it is still growing, and not a recession expected.

  • Reply to

    Reply to dtowntrone

    by bigsee4c Jan 9, 2015 3:30 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 16, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    Thanks, I checked google. I had looked at a report for December where it showed auto sales there up over 13% over a year ago: But for the year it was only in the 7% or 8% range for 2014 and that is expected to continue into 2015 (China Assoc of Auto Manufacturing expects 7%): This (from the South China Post - Economic section on the vehicle sales growth dip): clarifies the picture a little:
    China’s vehicle sales growth dipped nearly 7 per cent last year as domestic sales sputtered in a slowing economy, with exports also falling short of expectations. Vehicle sales for the year rose to 23.5 million units from 21.98 million units a year ago, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping by 7 percentage points from 13.9 per cent in 2013, the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Monday. The association had forecast 8 per cent growth.
    Sales of commercial vehicles, at 3.8 million, saw a bigger dive last year, falling 6.5 per cent from the previous year. Passenger car sales growth remained stable at 9.9 per cent year on year, with a total of 19.7 million vehicles sold. “The economic slowdown weighed on vehicle sales in 2014 but the drop in commercial vehicle sales was also caused by stricter emission regulations,” said #$%$ Yang, secretary-general of CAAM. Global economic uncertainties also dampened exports, which were weaker than the market expectation, #$%$ said. Exports for the year dropped 6.8 per cent to about 910,000 units. “In particular, the economic conditions in China’s major exports markets such as Brazil and Russia were weak last year,” #$%$ said. Vehicle sales saw a significant rebound in December, growing 12.9 per cent to 2.4 million units from a year ago, setting a record for single-month auto sales. to be cont....

  • Reply to

    Reply to dtowntrone

    by bigsee4c Jan 9, 2015 3:30 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 16, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Slowing growth with auto sales growing only 10% in latest report. A slowdown over there is when growth drops below 10%!

  • Reply to

    100 share Trades bolstering stock Price?

    by erchitect67 Jan 15, 2015 10:35 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 16, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    same

  • Reply to

    Reply to dtowntrone

    by bigsee4c Jan 9, 2015 3:30 PM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 16, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Believe it or not it was only 6 months ago Pt was at $1500. It appears that Pt double bottomed in the high $1100s in the last two months and has begun to recover. This certainly helps all those predictions of Pt averaging in the $1300s in 2015.

    Palladium is still up from $700 a year ago. It rallied as high as $900 and fell back to $745-750-ish, a support level which as already held 3 or 4 times this year. This level is being tested again today so time will tell. It seems to be holding for now which is good. Physical demand may conquer speculation in this case. I think some people may be confusing slowdown with recession. I think the weak Euro and added expected stimulus may prevent a recession there. I for one will be in France for 3 weeks in May so that should help bolster the economy there as well. Inflation seems to be noticable in China. I think RE development there should take a pause, but manufacturing maybe not. Automobile production is still growing strong which is good for the Platinum Group Metals. Time will tell on this one. Don't know for sure, and time will tell obviously, but I think banks and countries will be working hard to avert recessions. One good thing with stimulus for metals is that it is inflationary, so with the deflationary fears and slowdown fears, stimulus over there seems inevitable. That is probably why metals soared (and euro dropped) when the legal hurdels were cleared for the ECB to do a QE stimulus.

  • jackgotney jackgotney Jan 15, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    FYI - In my last sentence in the previous post, " I mean if there were more of them PLG might suddenly become a little more expensive. ", to be less ambiguous, by 'them' I meant, 'people who can spell and add', (in case you didn't get my drift). - cheers. Solid buy and long term hold at these prices with less invested than if you were buying the physical.

  • jackgotney jackgotney Jan 15, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    People who buy shares of PLG are definitely not morans. The UrbanDictionary defines 'moran' as the following: "Top Definition ... Moran. The preferred method of spelling "moron" by morons".
    But that doesn't mean we are morons. At least we know how to spell 'm o r o n'. LOLOLOL. We also can do math. Can you, mr 'bash'? If you do some math you can figure out mathematically you are buying shares in future Platinum concentrate at a big discount. I believe they eventually will mine at least 50 million ounces of Pt concentrate from their properties at an average cost of lets assume $500 (it is projected to be lower on average). They will sell the concentrate at 85% to spot which would be at current prices about $1070. So that would mean a profit margin of at least $500 on each ounce, after cost of extraction. What is 50 million * $500.00?. I figured. If you can't add, you probably can't multiply. But if you learn to multiply divide the result now by 751 million shares and you can see you are getting about $33 worth of future platinum for each share of PLG for only .43. That is a big discount, about 1 penny on the dollar. Isn't it amazing how many people can't spell, or add? I mean if there were more of them PLG might suddenly become a little more expensive.

  • Reply to

    Platinum Prices

    by dtowntrone Jan 15, 2015 8:30 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 15, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Pt and Au both up about 2.7% now to about $1260 bid. Pd up almost 1% to bid $781. This move, if sustained, has a real positive impact on future cash flows expected to begin at year end and ramp through 2017.

  • Reply to

    Platinum Prices

    by dtowntrone Jan 15, 2015 8:30 AM
    jackgotney jackgotney Jan 15, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    If this is a long seller it has to be somebody desperate for cash as someone was actively pushing down the ask to sell shares quickly. I can't wait till it's over! It's like having an elephant sit on the damn share price.

  • Sorry to belabor the price and value subject: On Nov 14th 2014 PLG was at .93 with 550 million shares (capitalized at over $512 million). Since then it secured $132 million cash so the market cap should have increased to ~$640 million. This eliminated the risk that the Bushveld project would not be completed. Nothing else bad going on here. Both Pt and Pd are up since then, so the future cash flows are higher, and more than 50% of the short position has covered since then. We also had a very 'as expected' inline report 3rd quarter report with a positive outlook. So the company has lost half its value during this period, with a current market cap (inclusive of the new shares) of $328 million (including the $167 million cash). If you remove that $132 million in cash that was added in the meantime to compare it to the pre-financing company, it is valued at $196 million (2 months ago it was valued at $512 million). The financing actually makes it look better, so net of the financing, PLG is down 62% for no reason. The Bushveld project alone has an NPV north of $.5 Billion, and don't forget Waterburg, the biggest discovery in the mining industry in 2012. The market still has not realized that 10s of millions of near surface open pit minable platinum has more value than a piece of chewed bubble gum. Does that mean there are a lot of unintelligent investors out there, very stupid in fact? It does support the thesis that the IQ of a mob (the general market) is lower than that of any individual in it. Statistically, 50% of a stock's price movement is attributable to the overall market, 30% to the stock's industry group and only 20% to factors that are uniquely its own. You can debate fundamentals vs momentum which I have been doing but momentum seems to be winning. I suppose the 'run with the herd mentality' may be king for now, but I would be buying more here if I had the cash. We were down like 15% at one point, and closed down 8%. It is nothing but panic selling for no reason.

  • jackgotney jackgotney Jan 14, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Thanks - I am done chasing it and will have to wait it out now. Energy stocks pummeled. I had a stock I made money on (symbol EVEP) earlier this year as it rose to 44. I had bought it for the dividends but my cap gains were too good and I sold out. It has dropped from at least $44 in the last few months to $14.64. I think everyone expects it to cut its dividend which otherwise, if not, currently would be over 19%!

PEP
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