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Oxford Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board

jackhiller 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 2, 2014 9:46 PM Member since: Jun 23, 2010
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  • Reply to

    BWP, EROC, NLY, GNI, WHX

    by obboi Mar 2, 2014 8:02 PM
    jackhiller@ymail.com jackhiller Mar 2, 2014 9:46 PM Flag

    obboi, Thanks, it takes two sides to make any transaction, and continued buying at these new low prices is getting harder and harder. I have unfilled buy orders, so here is hoping you have credibility.

    By the way, citing lame companies does not argue specifically about how Argent is failing. Please do add specifics, and point out how the current SA analysis went wrong. From what I read, while he cited the windfall from the lowered value of the Canadian vs USD, there was also a hedging profit he overlooked which will be around $6 mil a quarter while it holds, as well as the millions left over after Canadian debt is serviced-- he failed to crank this extra income into the cash flow figure. The company itself has been low balling the FCF, as it conservatively does not add in the production and earnings it expects from the new Eagle Ford wells.

    And with worldwide tension running high for major producers, such as Iraq and Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela , and now Russia, oil is trading up around $104 WTI, and NG continues strong from all of that hyped Global Earnings -NOT.

    Argent is apt to reduce the size of the DRIP this year, as no longer needed, and just might raise the distribution next year.

  • jackhiller@ymail.com by jackhiller Feb 28, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Appear to have ignored the fact that the drop in the CAD to the USD, with income based on the USD, and the convertible bond debt based on the CAD, is giving Argent millions of dollars more free cash flow. It also appears that both analysts evaluated BV based on outdated oil resource data, but most important, did not add into this year's cash flow estimates the production from the wells to be drilled at a cost of $45 mill. In other words, they subtracted the $45 mil from free cash flow, but put nothing back for the new oil expected from drilling. On the face of it, they appear to have serviced what had been a large short position. Business as usual?

    So far, Argent has been successful in drilling the Austin Chalk (cheap drilling) and the Eagle Ford formations, and thru to this week, in reaction to the TD report, IR informed that they expect to be showing more value, especially from the Eagle Ford drilling, then TD gave when changing their analysis strategy to eliminate growth potential.

    The ER on Tuesday ought to clarify what's going on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No divdend cut

    by bighairybutt Feb 26, 2014 12:17 PM
    jackhiller@ymail.com jackhiller Feb 26, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    TD said nothing about the distribution, as its well covered. What TD did do was to change the standard book value evaluation to delete expected plow back of earnings into drilling (which the other analysts routinely do). So, for example, the fact that Argent has identified over 100 prospective drilling sites in known productive ground, was deleted from TD's own past valuation. TD has fed meat to the short sharks. The yield is over 16% on fear. But earnings are likely going to be higher than the company's estimate, because of the USD increase of about 10% over the Canadian dollar and about 30% of production was unhedged and thus was likely sold to the spot market at over $100 for oil and over $5 for NG.

    Next week's earnings report ought to be good to very good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fracking

    by forwardflash Feb 25, 2014 12:56 PM
    jackhiller@ymail.com jackhiller Feb 25, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    The Kansas $45 mil acquisition included a small area of legacy wells in Colorado, likely conventionally drilled.
    The drop is simply from the TD Securities lowered target yesterday to $7.5, with a hold, and lower oil and gas prices today that have most producers down.

    The company appears to be doing well, with diversified production areas, and around 70% hedging this year. Earnings estimates were based on the Canadian dollar trading at $1.04 to the USD, so current rate at $1.11 translates to higher USD income by about 7%..

    Time to buy is when fear is driving irrational selling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Fret not. Oil and NG pricing is high enough to make more good hedges, and feed production to the spot market. With the USD over the CD by about 10%, USD earnings translate to higher Canadian income, and the opportunity for reducing bank debt faster, drilling faster, and/or buying units back under Book Value. However dealt with by the company, the earnings picture is brighter than ever.

    Never would imagine that any brokerage would engage in price manipulation to help their short friends. Never would speculate like that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Let's see $4 soon

    by keembodakine Jan 9, 2014 12:31 AM
    jackhiller@ymail.com jackhiller Feb 15, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    The three relatively new Canadian mutual trusts, including Parallel, have avoided the 15% divi tax by locating all of their earnings from US properties. Check their web site. The usual 15% has not been taken from my distributions, although I heard that Scottrade makes that mistake. If the 15% was deducted, your broker is making a mistake,

  • Reply to

    Lnco looks like a buy here

    by lordofdoggtown Feb 12, 2014 8:52 PM
    jackhiller@ymail.com jackhiller Feb 13, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, even the best managed MREITs have done poorly, with no fault as last years rates surprisingly jolted higher, but in the aftermath, almost all went overboard on hedging against higher long rates that have now placed them in losing positions, some of which will go from GAAP paper losses to real losses. These hedges also were expensive and ate profitability. The recent ERs from MTGE, TWO, and CYS show these paper losses. Leverage remains too high at WMC which had navigated the best last year. I recently took a position in NYMT, when it dipped from its SPO, because the yield is high, and the leverage a low 2.6, with the company asserting it is safe from margin calls, which translates to not spending earnings on hedges.

  • Reply to

    Lnco looks like a buy here

    by lordofdoggtown Feb 12, 2014 8:52 PM
    jackhiller@ymail.com jackhiller Feb 13, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    Linn having completed the merger is now a solid company again, but with an even better property base. For IRAs., LNCO is ideal. In retirement, I'm attracted to current high yield more than growth, although some growth is helpful, obviously. I am now mainly invested in two special actively managed Canadian oil and gas trusts that invest only in the USA, and so there is no Canadian 15% deduction on their dividends.

    The lower Canadian value than the US dollar reduces the face yield for these, as the dividends are shown in Canadian dollars, but the higher US dollar from US earnings is increasing earnings and helping them to pay down bank debt faster. I have Argent Energy Trust and Parallel Energy Trust, with twice as much in Argent, as it may grow well from its large Eagle Ford acreage now under development. These trust are not suited for most folks, because, while they trade with good volume on the TX, they are available to most only in the pink sheets, where trading is very thin.

    Best of luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lnco looks like a buy here

    by lordofdoggtown Feb 12, 2014 8:52 PM
    jackhiller@ymail.com jackhiller Feb 12, 2014 11:18 PM Flag

    Right, and so I bought LNCO for my IRA today. But we really do not need any 50 day or 200 day or any such tech analysis to realize that, given a yield over 9% and the expanded, large Permian Basin properties that have billions of barrels recoverable from multiple horizontal shale formations.

OXF
1.3511+0.0211(+1.59%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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