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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

jackie.stacy58 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 20, 2014 2:38 PM Member since: Sep 7, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Bulls make money, Bears make money

    by unexistant.geo Aug 20, 2014 12:08 PM
    jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Aug 20, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    wake me up at 75 so I can start trimming.

  • Reply to

    Very good series of days, but...

    by grinchswan Aug 20, 2014 11:56 AM
    jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Aug 20, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    at some point it gets flagged as a momentum play. and it goes higher than it should. people will buy based on the chart, people who may think they build bridges in Holland.

  • jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Aug 8, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    cash flow is not always in the companies control. If a big client wants the contractor to buy materials for a job and bill on 90 day terms, and that is a condition of getting the order, then you say yes, if the overall job is profitable. I see this as being more likely when the pace of new contract orders is high and rising. Its not like CBI is making big capital investments. Cash flow will follow profits in the long run. its not a good financial health indicator.

  • Reply to


    by podotro Jul 29, 2014 7:42 PM
    jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Jul 30, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    its just capital allocation. They now have better places to put the next investment loonie. And its South of the Bakken play. Put the money where it does the most good, and let somebody with fewer good alternatives buy you out of a play that is down on your list of opportunities.

  • Reply to

    3rd Qtr earnings estimates

    by e7navy1999 Jul 30, 2014 4:14 PM
    jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Jul 30, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    At a run rate of $1.40/qtr, that is $ 5.60/year. At a very conservative 15 PE that would take us into the 84 pps range, a full 40% above tonights price. Its going to happen, I cant wait to find out if its a slow grind up, or it becomes so obvious to the funds that it happens over a couple of weeks.

  • Reply to

    No Class action suits-----Prescience

    by sammy_crew Jul 29, 2014 2:03 PM
    jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Jul 29, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    You hit it exactly right. if they end up over the next 3 years making 10% on a 31B backlog, that is 3.1B in pretax profit. That is worth half the current stock price right there. the best evidence to me is that margins on all the operating groups where higher this quarter than the prior periods. And even if the Shaw buy was too high, eliminating a competitor is worth a few % points on future margin. Stock pricing is about the future not the past, and the future couldn't look brighter. CBI is in the sweet spot of all the upcoming investment needed to both monetize the shale resource, and now we hear that US energy exports ( read- gas processing and transportation) is what is needed to beat down the Russians. Perfect.

  • Reply to

    Technical Support -- around $60?

    by jcp8690 Jul 29, 2014 11:55 AM
    jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Jul 29, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    i dont know a thing about technical support, but there will be strong fundamental support around the level of the cash balance per share. I think that is about $5.

  • Reply to

    No upside catalyst

    by unexistant.geo Jul 28, 2014 1:51 PM
    jackie.stacy58 jackie.stacy58 Jul 28, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    i cite the recent example of Kinder Morgan. A bear attack, that lasted a couple of months, and the positive news on company business gradually overwhelmes the nonsense. That stock is back up to where it all began. And I doubled down at the bottom.
    I giving it another month on CBI. Then I'm going to quad down with in the money options.

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