Yes, XOM Ca plants are either sold to VLO, or down from explosion. Huge margins on VLO branded and all independents since the Feb outage at Torrance. Going to move the needle. maybe enough to fund the buyback
ignore him VLO Execs. keep making gobs of money, buy back all the shares except mine, and then i will own the company. Im old, no worries, i will let you keep your bonuses.
OK, So these guys sell about 15 MM gallons of ARCO gas a day. they are getting $.60/gallon more this week than two weeks ago, and Crude price is dropping. Thats over 9MM$ / day or $0.07/ share every day on Q3 earnings. Folks, this is huge. Where are they going to store all the money?
This monday, we woke up in LA to most majors having raised gasoline prices on the street by over $0.75/gallon. ARCO prices were only up a dime. Now two days later, all the ARCO stations have raised another $04.0/gal so within normal amount under the CVX/Shell/P66/XOM prices. They tried to stay down, but the added volume forced the price rise. Independent prices keep climbing daily. Nobody under $4/gallon. Huge profits being made daily. no sign of a break. TSO margins and earnings are going to surprise big time.
margins are tracked weekly in VLO and TSO web sites. There is no doubt that Q2 margins are going to be outstanding. Last 3 weeks continues to accelerate mogas crack margins. its going to be blow out for both Q2 and maybe Q3.
SO , the utility involved in the Nuke cost over runs, stock continues to sink like a stone. The investors there seem to think that SO will have to eat most of the cost over run, and no immediate judgement or settlement is coming from the licensors or constructors.
Worked some numbers. the added gross margin for P66 in Q2 just from CA mogas price spike should be about $600M, or after tax of $0.75/share. not seeing those kind of numbers in static analyst Q2 estimates. TSO estimates are climbing daily. We are going to surprise big time come July 31.
article in the tree hugger press that says oil companies made an extra 4.3 Billion$ just in CA since the first spike up in mogas prices with the XOM Torrance explosion.
Those extras should show up as taxable income in the Q2 reports. Expect that CVX will see at least 30% of that as that is about their Ca market share. And the Q3 will be just as big if not bigger.
Ca buys 1 million barrels per day. If CA margins are just $0.50/gallon more than rest of country the added gross margin should be $21million/ day. for 90 days thats $ 1.9 Billion. And today with CA price at $4.05 and rest of US at $2.8 then added gross margin is about twice that.
Of course 1$B a quarter is not enough to make up for CVX upstream cut since last year priors. But its something, so why not buy here at 12 month lows. You get 4.6 % to wait for good stuff to happen in the world supply demand picture.
West Coast mogas margins are out of this world, have been most of Q2 and still climbing. TSO has high percentage of revenue in that region.
Margins for GC and MidWest, where MPC plays have also been good. Q2 is best in past 5 years. Should be at new high, and it is. How much higher it goes depends on whether WS thinks these margins are sustained or fall back to negative like most winter quarters.
Its different this time? been dead wrong many time before saying that.
west coast mogas margins are out of this world. intel would be jealous. TSO has more west coast concentration. P66 has some participation, but low % of total revenue. Yahoo Q2 estimates for TSO go up every day. now annualized at $13/share or 7X PE stock could double.
feed stock is free buyers are plentiful.. whats not to like. too bad we aren't a biotech IPO. have to wait. its hard not to buy a lot of 6 month calls for 70.
The street price for gasoline in Ca is on going up big time. They have raised the price twice by more than a dime each time, and this is just since 6 am this morning. Most stations are above 4$/gallon. something has happened. margins were already at 5 year highs.
look for PSX and CVX to participate as well, but not MPC, VLO, WNR, or XON.
its a west coast thing.
yeah would think they are currently making a major fortune here on the left coast. Gas Prices are pushing $4/gal. that extra margin is because of refinery trouble at the competition facilities. And its going to last most of the Q2, lots of free cash flow to use to pay added divvy.