good for you. Ive made money buying calls over the past couple of months. been out for awhile, but back in today. its a no brainer that this stock appreciates in some more normal market environment. the driving force for profitability ( low US natgas price) isn't changing. Sales vol is going to rise dramatically in next 6-12 months.
a stock with a company that is making this much money, will have to appreciate in some future market environment. just hang on.
no way. there is soooo little downside risk, compared to the huge upside. They are printing money as we speak. The next earnings report is nearly in the bag, and its the best ever. West Coast margins are shrinking but from a huge number. Gas demand remains strong, and no sign of Added capacity in the TSO refining or marketing area. its just a matter of time. as soon as the S&P steadies and stops crashing, TSO will start its long steep climb to price the stock around 8-9 times earnings.
Earnings projections leaving the station. at $12 for year now, on way to $15. That will take us to at least 125, and someday, a PE above 10.
not to get to work they are not. the only fossil fuel impacted by solar is Coal. and its problems are mostly related to either State intervention or low price of Nat Gas.
Yes, looks viable. the cash flow from the refineries is a nice plus. They need a plan for the road back. They can only spend so fast on expansion of oil sands, and they will have a couple of years where the cash flow will mushroom as oil makes its way back into the 60-70 range. The next couple of expansion phases continue in construction and i expect will be steamed when ready. I hope they can snag some really good , high yield, low OpEx property from the dead and dying over the next couple of years. A couple hundred million loonies ought to buy out Encana. Wouldn't that be a story??
yeah, thats what my broker said about Canadian Oil stocks, then they eliminate their divvy? How can you rely on the repeated statements from management about future dividends, when business conditions can change outside their control. This sucks. I just need my 6%, but have to take huge risks to get it.
the 4 week average of gasoline sales is up 6% over the same period last year. What industry wouldn't kill for that kind of demand growth. Our own energy department continues to project 2% growth. And they continue to build out export facilities on the Gulf Coast. Look for Fall maintenance to remove more capacity than the seasonal drop in summer driving demand. Inventories hold steady thru the fall/winter instead of rising, and mogas margins stay very positive this winter instead of going negative. Wall St. finally sees Refiners as predictable EBITA machines and increases projected PE ratios from mid single digits up to the 10-12 range. VLO hits 100 by Spring next year. Watch and Learn.
At $47/bbl gas cracks, they can buy just about anybody they want. Going to finish paying off the BP plant with another quarter or two of these margins.
Earnings estimate for 2015 is now up 25% over the past month. Hmmm. Does anybody really think that a PE ratio of less than 10 makes any sense. The margins over the HFC marketing/crude supply area are as good as ever.
earnings forcast for 2015 for TSO is up 55% in the past 3 months. Hmmmm… Maybe priced at less than 10 X expected PE is a light?? Does anybody really think class action lawsuits is going to change the landscape?
looked at the progress over last year of buying back stock. There are about 4% less ( 8MM of 199 MM) shares outstanding compared to a year ago. That is about the same amount of value they had been giving in special dividends. The CEO said Q3 would include lots more of stock buyback. They should have no trouble funding that as gross income on 440,000 B/D at $20/bbl is around $10MM/day. So they could use all the cash flow if they wanted and buyback a million shares a week. Lets watch and see.
chicken feed. wall st will over react. My read is that Q3 margins are running 20-40% above Q2. Thats what will matter over next earning cycle. Higher for all 3 months from now.
i think its a no brainer cash machine, that is getting bigger. And now, it seems that more of the gross profit is going to be sticking around to fund even larger cash machines, rather than be sent to Washington. Good move. Governments take too much from well oiled cash machines.
it relies on US nat gas being significantly cheaper than rest of world, except midEast.
With all the fracking potential, that seems a very very good likelihood.
The operating margin is already very high for an industrial company, and the barriers to entry are high, with a 3 year time lag.
This is a sound sound prospect, as the ultimate demand is for food. People like food.
they are buying out a competitor who was also investing in the North American chemicals/fertilizer value chain using super cheap Nat Gas. This is a no brainer. Even Moodys said so. And if they have to issue some debt in order to buy more capacity that is better than building more plants that take 3 years to construct. This is a high margin business, and they are becoming a bigger player. Bravo. Too bad Wall Street doesn't understand long term value. But I'm betting they wake up in the next month or so.