I think the traditional way is to place a buy order. Anyway, maybe they will just move on to another segment of the market to play their games. Im in so many that are targets. the worst is CBI, and what they are doing to KMI is criminal.
I doubt the TSO bunch is selling much at spot. Gas Buddy shows that any drop in CA avg. gas price has been matched by WTI drop. you make money on margin not price
i really don't understand the high short interest in this stock. You would think a bunch of folks are going to want to cover. And if they all run at once….?
how many other companies can you name that sell for less than $100, that have ever reported earnings of $$4+ a share in any quarter? And margins are increasing this quarter. Geez. Bought more calls this morning on the down opening.
Not a physical breakup, but with the cash flow, why not take it private, leverage it up, runoff with the money, and offer it back for sale. That is what used to happen to underpriced US companies.
diesel margins across the country have been shrinking. mogas demand up way more than distillate. Refineries running hard to make the gasoline and the diesel gets into surplus. still able to export diesel from GC and make money, but not from ND. Bad timing. good long term idea. I imagine the netback on shipping naphtha to Canada for diluent is also less than expected when they approved the project. good idea though. just poor timing.
I own HFC as well. a cash machine. They have the same problem. where do you put all the money. a few years back they just gave out special $0.50/share special dividend every quarter. They may have to restart that.
Just looked at TSO margin index. Q3 is running 30% above Q2. They will report Q2 today at more than $3/share. So the two quarters combined could be $7/share. That puts our PE ratio at somewhere less than 7. Somebody in NYC bank community is going to want to buy it and break it up and gain 50% quick breakup fee. just watch. Its coming if the price per share doesn't head up in the next few weeks.
Ive been wrong before on timing ( see worthless expired options on my statements) but not on the direction. The stations in my area are full full, and selling mogas with $30 margin.
i guess 11% yield just isn't worth what it used to be. plus there are those nasty taxes. Sure would rather have a 10 year bond at 2%???
clearly bad hedging. that practically said it. its hard for a ceo to admit he has been gambling with the company money. margins going forward are excellent and the hedges must be trailing off.
Yes, XOM Ca plants are either sold to VLO, or down from explosion. Huge margins on VLO branded and all independents since the Feb outage at Torrance. Going to move the needle. maybe enough to fund the buyback
ignore him VLO Execs. keep making gobs of money, buy back all the shares except mine, and then i will own the company. Im old, no worries, i will let you keep your bonuses.
OK, So these guys sell about 15 MM gallons of ARCO gas a day. they are getting $.60/gallon more this week than two weeks ago, and Crude price is dropping. Thats over 9MM$ / day or $0.07/ share every day on Q3 earnings. Folks, this is huge. Where are they going to store all the money?
This monday, we woke up in LA to most majors having raised gasoline prices on the street by over $0.75/gallon. ARCO prices were only up a dime. Now two days later, all the ARCO stations have raised another $04.0/gal so within normal amount under the CVX/Shell/P66/XOM prices. They tried to stay down, but the added volume forced the price rise. Independent prices keep climbing daily. Nobody under $4/gallon. Huge profits being made daily. no sign of a break. TSO margins and earnings are going to surprise big time.
margins are tracked weekly in VLO and TSO web sites. There is no doubt that Q2 margins are going to be outstanding. Last 3 weeks continues to accelerate mogas crack margins. its going to be blow out for both Q2 and maybe Q3.
SO , the utility involved in the Nuke cost over runs, stock continues to sink like a stone. The investors there seem to think that SO will have to eat most of the cost over run, and no immediate judgement or settlement is coming from the licensors or constructors.
Worked some numbers. the added gross margin for P66 in Q2 just from CA mogas price spike should be about $600M, or after tax of $0.75/share. not seeing those kind of numbers in static analyst Q2 estimates. TSO estimates are climbing daily. We are going to surprise big time come July 31.
article in the tree hugger press that says oil companies made an extra 4.3 Billion$ just in CA since the first spike up in mogas prices with the XOM Torrance explosion.
Those extras should show up as taxable income in the Q2 reports. Expect that CVX will see at least 30% of that as that is about their Ca market share. And the Q3 will be just as big if not bigger.
Ca buys 1 million barrels per day. If CA margins are just $0.50/gallon more than rest of country the added gross margin should be $21million/ day. for 90 days thats $ 1.9 Billion. And today with CA price at $4.05 and rest of US at $2.8 then added gross margin is about twice that.
Of course 1$B a quarter is not enough to make up for CVX upstream cut since last year priors. But its something, so why not buy here at 12 month lows. You get 4.6 % to wait for good stuff to happen in the world supply demand picture.
West Coast mogas margins are out of this world, have been most of Q2 and still climbing. TSO has high percentage of revenue in that region.
Margins for GC and MidWest, where MPC plays have also been good. Q2 is best in past 5 years. Should be at new high, and it is. How much higher it goes depends on whether WS thinks these margins are sustained or fall back to negative like most winter quarters.
Its different this time? been dead wrong many time before saying that.