couldn't decide which to do, so i bought calls, and also more stock. Im 110% in. fingers crossed. And if disappointed again, I'm willing to wait. i hate it when the news is all positive, but the stock doesn't respond.
got my final lick in last week at 75. Now it should climb and hit a new high soon after next earnings and the divvy increase announcement.
Eh, looks like cracks and heavy sour discounts are going to push Q1 way above Q4. Q4 was a blowout. We could be looking at $14-15/share for 2015. Wont sell at less than 150.
first quarter margins ( crack spreads, plus heavy sour discount, plus WTI/Brent) Are looking like about 50-80% above Q4 2014 . This after nominal 6$/bbl operating costs. So its looking like earnings are going to exceed $4/share . That should blow the lid off 2015 projections, and place current stock PE into the 6-7 range which is ridiculous. This stock should soar. just don't know when, but not going past earnings day without out of money call exposure.
good move short term. you're going to glad you have west coast exposure going this this one earnings season. Ever since 2/18 when XOM Torrance blew up, the street price of gasoline has been 60-75 cpg more than normal relative to US avg. For the industry that is $30/bbl added margin on 1MMB/d product.- just CA. and the rest of West Coast is somewhat elevated as well. That is going to show up in Q1 reports, and we could have 40 days of that. so over 0.75B$ after tax. you want to have piece of that. CVX and PSX have the biggest pieces, but it gets lost there, but not TSO.
don't think so. in not too long, there will be enough pipe to raise well head price much closer to marker price. this will increase net income by a bunch in PA, TX/La fields. This has no where to go but up, particularly as much of price decline is due to unfair tag with oily cousins.
best plays for the next little while, need to have some WestCoast product sales exposure. PADD IV markets are not getting the love price wise. look at TSO or PSX
good call. earnings estimates rising quickly now. look for final estimates for Q1 to be above $3/share.
VLO margin website , updated thru 3/20, shows Q1 margins above Q4 and last year first quarter. Also shows good progression from Jan-March. USGC better than Midwest, with West Coast finally coming down off accident spike. Only VLO EtOh business looks to be underperforming in the moment. Look for MPC to lead the charge with HFC and TSO also showing blowout quarter results next month.