at some point it gets flagged as a momentum play. and it goes higher than it should. people will buy based on the chart, people who may think they build bridges in Holland.
cash flow is not always in the companies control. If a big client wants the contractor to buy materials for a job and bill on 90 day terms, and that is a condition of getting the order, then you say yes, if the overall job is profitable. I see this as being more likely when the pace of new contract orders is high and rising. Its not like CBI is making big capital investments. Cash flow will follow profits in the long run. its not a good financial health indicator.
its just capital allocation. They now have better places to put the next investment loonie. And its South of the Bakken play. Put the money where it does the most good, and let somebody with fewer good alternatives buy you out of a play that is down on your list of opportunities.
At a run rate of $1.40/qtr, that is $ 5.60/year. At a very conservative 15 PE that would take us into the 84 pps range, a full 40% above tonights price. Its going to happen, I cant wait to find out if its a slow grind up, or it becomes so obvious to the funds that it happens over a couple of weeks.
You hit it exactly right. if they end up over the next 3 years making 10% on a 31B backlog, that is 3.1B in pretax profit. That is worth half the current stock price right there. the best evidence to me is that margins on all the operating groups where higher this quarter than the prior periods. And even if the Shaw buy was too high, eliminating a competitor is worth a few % points on future margin. Stock pricing is about the future not the past, and the future couldn't look brighter. CBI is in the sweet spot of all the upcoming investment needed to both monetize the shale resource, and now we hear that US energy exports ( read- gas processing and transportation) is what is needed to beat down the Russians. Perfect.
i dont know a thing about technical support, but there will be strong fundamental support around the level of the cash balance per share. I think that is about $5.
i cite the recent example of Kinder Morgan. A bear attack, that lasted a couple of months, and the positive news on company business gradually overwhelmes the nonsense. That stock is back up to where it all began. And I doubled down at the bottom.
I giving it another month on CBI. Then I'm going to quad down with in the money options.
i don't see the last earnings as disappointing. This is a big ship, and its going the right way. The quarter to quarter earnings in any E&C are jagged, as they can decide when they want to book profitable work, as the payments come in, and when they want to release reserves on a project that will come in OK, and not eat into the contingency. The annual increase in work sold, and work billed, and the margins on the new work are all you need to know about to feel comfortable with a buy and hold. I would buy right here, and be confident we will be ahead 15-20% a year from now.
I was in CVX, XOM, PBR, SU for broad, world wide exposure to upstream. Only CVX remains. I switched from XOM to COP because COP has a production growth strategy that is working. Exxon has a strategy to be big and do big deals that they don't do carefully enough to actually execute. An example is Kearl. they delayed it for decade, then did it, then fumbled it. Kaz is another example of big project fumble. So is the BP disaster in the Gulf. I like COP, they give me exposure to the upside of oil prices, and they are growing in the Perm Basin.
Dude, its a Bond, not a stock, and it paying 7.5% ( more when it goes down a little.) It seems like a healthy business, so go create drama somewhere else. I don't even look at the price anymore.
on some days it makes me made, and I go spend 100$ on a couple of calls. Most days, I just relax, and click on the estimate of the annual income that HFC/HEP are giving me, and think about all the Pinot its going to buy me. today im up 40% in half and hour on my two calls.
When did this become a worthless tech stock??
great evolving business model , with results still in progress.
Nobody wants to wait anymore.
Say people going past a school bus today with its red lights flashing.
Interruption greatly appreciated.
I don't even look at this one but once a week anymore. Its a core holding. Its a great substitute for bond income which the Fed doesn't think we should be able to use for income anymore. I don't see anything that they are wanting to do with the cash rolling in, so its likely to continue with buybacks and special dividends. Im averaged in in mid 30s and plan to hold in the core dividend group which includes KMP, ARLP, APU, VZ, and AMJ.
Yes, its an excellent step. Refining margins in the industry were just so-so in Q1, but improving to good in Q2. that means we should have better than 1X this summer. Looks like the reaction is good, and building. If I were short here , and lots of folks must be with the SI so high, I would be thinking of covering based on the past month trend, and not wanting to cough up the 9% dividend penalty .
not an investor. just a speculator seeing a sure bet with a few well placed puts.
Yes, but this time there may be wisdom in calling for the sky to fall. Look at the volume trend over the past three months. The buying is exhausted, and likely to fall of its own weight. Without mo or earnings what provides support in a downtrend?
thanks, I missed that. I do like the comment about the repair business. the feds may goose that market if they require major upgrades on the fleet for light crude hauling.