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DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Inc N Message Board

jackmaster20 638 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Stock Split?

    by noah_roberts2000 Jun 28, 2015 11:20 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 8 minutes ago Flag

    NR2000

    Stock splits might help the price appreciation short term, after the split. However by allowing
    new weak hands to crowd into the stock, this also means any subsequent period of a
    sustained stock price down is magnified by these new retail investors who will be the first to
    sell out of the stock. If an investor needs a stock price to be cheap to induce him to buy, then
    those are the wrong buyers for a stock's price growth...

    Institutional or fund investors (sophisticated capital allocators) do not care what the price of
    a security might be.....they only care about the relative value of any stock they buy.
    LMT is owned by approx 88 % institutionals. This is a good thing, IMO.

    With so many retail investors playing day traders from their kitchen table, all this
    new type of retail investors do is increase the beta in normally stable stock names.
    Unneeded short term pops are for looks only.

    No need for LMT to consider a stock split in 2015. They should continue to focus on growing
    their emerging business units instead.

  • Reply to

    ATTN Jack II

    by stormfront2020 17 hours ago
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 9 hours ago Flag

    Stormfront

    No reason to feel guilty for your winnings with KRFT & the deal with 3G.

    Chainsaw Al cleaned up Sunbeam Corp back in the 1980s, I think.

  • Reply to

    YTD stock price chart for LOCO

    by jackmaster20 Jul 1, 2015 4:57 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 11 hours ago Flag

    daschlock

    Greece is not about Greece, per se, but rather about
    the future chance of other PIIGS nations wondering
    if the EU is the proper economic/social framework
    to serve the interests of their people, over time.

    A Greek exist is not big deal....but a Spain or Italian
    reconsideration after a Greek exit would be.

    (Again nothing to do with LOCO whatsoever)

  • Reply to

    YTD stock price chart for LOCO

    by jackmaster20 Jul 1, 2015 4:57 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 11 hours ago Flag

    abww

    Gracious reply by you.
    makes sense to me as well.

  • I see all over the place how BEAV carries a 70 P/E ratio......this is totally inaccurate.

    here's why

    BEAV has only produced ONE quarterly release thus far.
    Q1 2015 EPS was 74 cents...or $ 2.98 for the full year
    Khoury said in Q1 CC full year EPS would be approximately $ 3.03

    At today's closing BEAV of approx $ 54.50
    BEAV's future full year 2015 P/E is 17.98

    That's a long way from a 70 P/E as posted on Yahoo Finance & its misleading

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 13 hours ago Flag

    imapounder......

    What news or data have you found that says that
    LOCO has found traction in getting into Texas...?

    That type of info would signal a new success in a
    non-California market & would be very good news in
    a market as large as the major Texas cities.

    Thanks for any insights/sources you might provide

  • Reply to

    Airbus and China .....

    by jackmaster20 Jul 5, 2015 10:36 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 14 hours ago Flag

    Not so sure that BEAV can add capacity as quick as you propose.

    Maybe China funds a interiors firm for its domestic/Asian jets....?
    outside the reach of the FAA
    Again ''economy class'' interiors seems their initial target.

    Short term unhedged US dollar issue is on the CFO, who has been on the job
    since Dec 2014.??........looks like the strong dollar started when Khoury's CFO was
    at the BEAV helm , not fair to blame the dollar action on a new CFO who has only
    reported one quarter of results........short term really is not a relevant story for me,
    a long term BEAV holder.

    Let's see how the New BEAV reacts to this shot across its bow.......

    As far as I can tell BEAV has been on time with its deliveries...it seems like the
    French econo class supplier is having the real trouble meeting Airbus'
    requirements.......from what Khoury said in the last CC, BEAV will be asking
    to win the outstanding orders that the French firm is not able to fulfill.

    Maybe Airbus doesn't want just one true interior supplier, so now they fund
    a start up with their best future customer.

  • Reply to

    YTD stock price chart for LOCO

    by jackmaster20 Jul 1, 2015 4:57 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 15 hours ago Flag

    abwww

    I own a small position in SDRL.

    JF is running a highly leveraged off-shore drilling specialist that is on
    the hook for many additional new build UDW drill-ships, at a time that
    the 7th generation drill ship market can not find a contract.....

    How long will the bear off-shore floater market last ...?
    Who can really tell...? Not me.

    Being highly leveraged in this highly cyclical market is treacherous.
    SDRL is certainly a high bet stock, but will it be a high alpha stock
    in the next 5 years.....?

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 16 hours ago Flag

    post 4th July season could be a time of weakness for WTI & by extension Brent

    .......SLB could track WTI lower over the next ''several'' trading sessions

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 16 hours ago Flag

    But.......

    If.......

    Iran signs a nuclear deal with the USA
    And then reneges on random inspections

    They Israelis bomb the heck out of all possible Iran nuclear installations.....

    Gasoline in the USA goes to $ 5/gallon on that news

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 16 hours ago Flag

    imapounder

    wow.....thanks for your data filled post here....!
    Hope you keep posting here with other LOCO
    investors.....

    I agree that LOCO mgmt is conservative at this time.
    Nothing wrong with letting results speak for the strategic
    plan in my book.

    Although LOCO is an established brand in SoCal ,
    IMO it will run up against several competing Mexican
    food QSR competitors as it tries to roll out in the west
    and later in the Midwest/SE. This fact still keeps me
    from buying this new ''busted IPO'' at these current
    levels.

    IMO I worry less about net operating margins than
    regular top line revenues, as LOCO spreads out into
    new regions. Once units are up and running & the
    initial shakedowns are complete I think margins will
    move higher over time. Right now LOCO needs to
    post strong top line revenues growth.

    Lastly, imapounder, only if LOCO posts an EPS for
    Q2 under 16 cents, do I worry that we will have to
    kneel before zodd.

    regards

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 16 hours ago Flag

    mbom

    IMO the ''soft'' EPS & revenue metrics did contribute
    to the May downdraft.......if LOCO posts another quarter
    of ''meet but not really beat'' then this stock goes lower
    no matter what guidance for the back 1/2 of 2015 is
    advertised to be...

    Lastly if Q2 is soft again (that's the 1st 2 quarters)
    then how can 2015 guidance be increased....?
    Just the way I look at the picture here with LOCO.
    But I could be wrong.

    one thing that worries me about the LOCO 2014-18
    western states expansion plans......they tried this same
    thing a few years ago & their plan failed.....will it succeed
    in 2015-18..? Time will tell & so will the LOCO P/E.

    Thanks for your comments here........

  • Reply to

    I like SLB at 30. Here's my rationale.

    by wes1066 Jul 2, 2015 4:56 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 19 hours ago Flag

    do not search

    SLB under $ 70 would be great, IMO
    We will have to see if that really occurs.

    I would look at aero parts firms, maybe discount
    retailers possibly industrials and tech to add to your
    holdings that sound energy heavy at present.

    i still think biotechs and cyber security firms have a
    long way to appreciate. I will buy some PRNHX
    for the wife's Roth IRA tonight.....for a long term
    addition to her existing position.

    As for the job front, I learned to take one day at a time,
    make sure you do your job best & realize that you can't
    solve other workers problems. Trust no one but yourself
    when it comes to W-2 activities.

    Continued success

  • Reply to

    Buying here?

    by mz_lifer Jun 30, 2015 10:07 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 21 hours ago Flag

    Watch out mz_lifer.......your wife will be back to normal and ''directing'' you before you know it..!!!!
    I hope that occurs for your ASAP.

    In all your years together, I bet you never wished for that like you do now.......

  • Reply to

    Buffet is paying himself

    by ironiceman7634 Jul 3, 2015 3:42 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 21 hours ago Flag

    stormfront

    Sorry to barge into your posting here, but did you hear that the KRFT-Heinz merger
    will close today....? KRFT looks to be having a good day so far.

  • Reply to

    I like SLB at 30. Here's my rationale.

    by wes1066 Jul 2, 2015 4:56 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 21 hours ago Flag

    do not search

    Sorry to read about your recent troubles at your job....

    IMO the best protection against cyclical employment issues is a large
    and diversified bond & stock portfolio. keeping your eye on the markets
    even when your job is giving you fits is the right thing to do.

    With your portfolio & job, I would look to invest in other sectors than
    energy. I feel you will retire on schedule if you manage your holdings
    in a conscientious manner.

    Good luck to you.

    Looks like crude might be entering a period of price weakness, so maybe
    SLB becomes available to long term investors for cheap valuations.
    IMO, SLB is ''best of breed'' and will survive any energy downturn
    that we are experiencing over the past 12 months. Under 4 80 for
    SLB looks like it will happen, maybe this week.

    regards

  • Reply to

    I like SLB at 30. Here's my rationale.

    by wes1066 Jul 2, 2015 4:56 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 5, 2015 10:33 PM Flag

    do not search

    After that post you have the nerve to criticize Wes ?

    You post zero rationale for a counter point argument....

    Post as you please.......but I often wonder why folks like
    you chose to attack others with equally useless posts........

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 5, 2015 10:08 PM Flag

    mbom

    If LOCO reports earnings ''in line'' with estimates, that will be a
    sign that expansion is not working to plan......that would mean IMO,
    that its reduces the probability of a guidance boost.

    2 thoughts about the shorts........
    One, I think a lot of those shorts are out since the move lower in May.
    Two, with such a tight trading range over the past 5 weeks, why would
    shorts re-load without any beta action...?

    A new risk: will the Greece event on Sunday shake US small cap
    stocks tomorrow, if ''yes'' then maybe LOCO posts a 19 handle
    which I would like to buy

    .........mid to long term LOCO is a play on whether it can convert
    itself from a SoCal Latino QSR into a growing western states,
    professional healthy food QSR targeting a much broader
    demographic.

    I wouldn't attempt to trade LOCO in 2015 ......

  • Reply to

    the coming fed hike of late 2015 .......

    by jackmaster20 Jun 17, 2015 10:05 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 5, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    d1

    As it turned out on Thursday morning the 233K new
    jobs data was not as strong as the market wanted to
    keep selling off long treasury bonds. Instead, long
    Treasuries rallied into the Greek vote over this weekend.

    I am red TMV so far, but feel the US economy keeps
    on pace for a 2.8 % increase in GDP which allows
    Yellen to say the economy can withstand a mild
    short term rate hike in 2015...

    Buying/trading long term treasuries can be just as
    ''dangerous'' as small cap equities......lots of beta
    can occur at any time

  • jackmaster20 by jackmaster20 Jul 5, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Mexico will auction off several lease parcels, in the off-shore shallow waters and on-shore.
    40 energy firms have paid $$$ to inspect these parcels geologic data sets.

    These Mexican leases will get drilled ''soon''
    SLB will benefit when its customers win these new Mexican E&P leases.

    Maybe not in 2015, but 2016-17 should see SLB bookings

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