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Pacific Drilling S.A. Message Board

jackmaster20 670 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2009
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  • Reply to

    ROST earnings ...!!

    by jackmaster20 Feb 26, 2015 4:16 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 13 hours ago Flag


    Hope your ROST entry was under triple digits......

    "the chart" indicates past investor sentiment...not
    the best means to discount future prospects.....

    You ought to go buy SPY and get instant diversification.
    Next, use your specific stock ideas as "trade around"
    plays to add marginal alpha for your entire portfolio.....

  • Reply to

    TJX wage hike ......

    by jackmaster20 Feb 25, 2015 9:59 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 13 hours ago Flag

    unclegary47 ........

    Then here's is how it works out .......

    Retail workers now hear there is a wage hike at TJX
    (workers at TGT, KSS, CVS, WGRN, JCP, DG, DTR, Sears etc will take note)

    Those existing TJX workers who increase their productivity consummate with their wage
    increases, will be promoted and receive additional wage hikes...."success stories"'..!

    .......while those TJX workers who are not motivated by added wages will be removed and
    workers from other retailers will be employed and given their chance to make more wages
    and be more productive.......

    An extra $ 400 per month can make a difference for retail workers now earning $ 7.50/hr.

    By increasing their employees wage rate, TJX is seeking out the better portions of all
    retailer's work force. Go to your local mall and see if TJX can attract the top 25 %
    of workers you see working.......TJX is not simply giving away money to their current
    employees.......they are attempting to expand their reach of better potential employees
    that are currently working elsewhere.

    If workers, in aggregate, don't respond to higher wages, as you fear, then its TJX mgmt
    at the store level's fault. All retail stores, despite what consumers see on a daily basis,
    need to be actively managed.

  • Reply to

    Compare this to Chipotle trading at 669

    by cacacgtcaa Feb 11, 2015 11:56 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 15 hours ago Flag

    Whatdid .......

    For growing restaurant concepts the metric to watch is YOY same store

    For expending restaurants to survive they must get additional people into
    their dining establishments...........per item food margins will take care of
    themselves if LOCO can continue to get more folks in each of their
    locations year after year.......

  • Reply to

    SLRC 9-30-2014 debt profile

    by jackmaster20 Jan 25, 2015 3:51 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 18 hours ago Flag

    SLRC doesn't have a non-accrual issue in its portfolio....as you imply.

  • Reply to

    not earning the dividend

    by analyst112 Feb 27, 2015 1:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 18 hours ago Flag


    In Q1 2016, when the US economy has continued to grow
    and interest rates are the same due to ECB & BOJ liquidity
    programs ends up on US shores ........

    ......Gross still will not be able to originate new loans with
    higher rates, he could have found in late 2013 or 2014 ..........

    If Gross can't find high rates in 2015, than he must originate more loans, even with lower rates......

    .....I could hold EM blue chip corp debt, hedge the currency
    risk as needed, and still receive close to the SLRC dividend rate.....!!

  • Reply to

    BG Foods ....KISS in Q1 2015

    by jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 8:30 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 22 hours ago Flag

    In Michigan Ortega is back on the shelves
    but their space seems less than last fall ........

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 1, 2015 10:13 AM Flag


    I never implied that AMNF utilizing TV or "advertising"
    Please don't try to 'win" by making broad assumptions of
    what other investors are saying...! Again AMNF has not
    stated what type of promo it is employing....you have an
    opinion that you seem to want to push off as fact, however
    only internal AMNF or distributor staff knows for sure
    at this time.

    AMNF says they are adding promo costs/investments.
    I read this to mean that AMNF is adding promo exp faster
    than they are adding additional sales, from a % basis.
    This does not sound like the typical shelf space slotting
    costs used to open new distribution. However if my
    assumption on promo cost growth is wrong, please
    feel free to correct me where appropriate.

    Every retail food product has competition of some sort....
    High end frozen Italian are not sold on the classic "price
    and promo" model. Retail distribution strata and product
    quality levels allow higher end brands to move away from
    the "price wars" that very competitive mass market retail
    brands face everyday.....

    If AMNF is in this very competitive brand environment, then
    its a poor long term investment......

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 9:48 PM Flag


    I contend that promo exps is an inefficient use of FCFs for firms
    like AMNF. Instead, use the FCFs to increase the number of outlets
    carrying AMNF full line of products.....in the NW.

    Get 30 NW Costco to carry just the best 2 AMNF frozen products and
    we would all see the AMNF production lines run at least 16 hours per day....!
    With zero promo exp and strong margins .......then watch the funds
    jump on the AMNF stock...!

    What has happened to the AMNF dividend pay out ratio over the
    past several years...? Up or down..?

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 9:38 PM Flag

    promo exp are typically employed for brands which have strong
    market saturation AND in competitive categories.....i.e. Ragu
    sauce or Kellogg cereals......

    IMO AMNF has not reached strong market saturation (plenty of
    outlets to add at full price) and I would think high end frozen Italian
    foods are regional brands with little direct competition........

    I don't see why AMNF would employ promo instead of adding
    distribution exp to add outlets. Adding one full line AMNF outlet
    gives AMNF a large stocking order plus run-rate sales whereas
    promo might increase revenues but not net operating profits.....

    But of course AMNF give no rationale for its promo strategy.

  • Reply to

    Oil will drop until May

    by outofbeer10 Feb 27, 2015 12:18 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 8:42 PM Flag


    Export refined products but not crude directly .......

    Foreign crude E&P firms should not be allowed to export crude either........
    ......crude located in the ground/off-shore USA is a national resource and not
    solely a tool for optimizing profits for a few energy firms.

    If you spend a lot of time at these drilling locations then you should be familiar
    with US crude production in the 1950-60s and crude production pre-2000.

    Possibly too many "me too" financially & technologically weak" E&P firms
    sprout up to exploit "easy periods of crude production....not all of these firms
    are required & SA is proving that point now.

    Export US crude directly today and watch where USA energy sources revert to
    in the next 20 years ...the same place as from 1970 to 2005. But add Russia
    and Iran....!

  • jackmaster20 by jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    Cantwell needs to really focus on repairing the largest BG Foods brand ....Ortega.
    Get this brand re-shelved in all of the prior outlets and regain revenues at least back to the
    Q3 2014 levels (and hopefully more)

    Maybe stop worrying about small brands (TruNorth) and focus on the big hitters in the BGS
    brand line-up which have the greatest impact........KISS in the first half of 2015.

  • Reply to

    Conference call just concluded ....

    by jackmaster20 Feb 18, 2015 5:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 8:25 PM Flag


    Like most mgmts on CCs ......the BGS CEO is usually optimistic (overally) on new ideas
    for new product extensions, way before results are posted to judge mgmt's optimistic.....

    I vividly recall the Rickland Orchards hyperbole back in 2013...........we have been waiting
    over 2 1/2 years for the BGS resurrection of the New York Style revenue trajectory .........

  • Reply to

    ROST earnings ...!!

    by jackmaster20 Feb 26, 2015 4:16 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 8:15 PM Flag


    Look at a one year chart of ROST, CELG, GILD & BIIB.
    What do you see......?

    IMO, select retailer's stocks will give you the same amount of return as
    biotech stocks.......not so sure its about the sector but more about
    discovering quality businesses in general.......

    I have never been in a Ross Store or a TJ Maxx store but profit is profit
    no matter where an investor finds quality businesses generating FCF....

    Do what you like.......but playing options in only one sector compounds
    your concentration risk. If I were you, I would actively look at securities in
    a few different sectors of the stock market.....

    The ROST results and stock pop was about as guaranteed as a stock
    play could have been ........if you are surprised why you make $$ on
    positive stock moves....you'll be doubly surprised when you lose $$$
    on negative stock moves .......

    Good luck to you ......

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 27, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    so about $ 510,000 in value .........

    Bretton is a very small mutual fund....$ 10.5 million in total assets.

    I hope other larger small cap mutual fund managers read the Bretton
    Fund report as closely as we do at this message board...!

    At least its a beginning for other funds to examine.........

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 27, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    dvb & BB63

    From a perspective of a stock that is owned to a certain extent for its robust dividend payouts...
    I would say adding promo expense to gain market share via price is not a good sign for
    marginal FCF growth ......which usually is the best source of dividend increases........


  • Reply to

    Conference call just concluded ....

    by jackmaster20 Feb 18, 2015 5:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 27, 2015 7:38 PM Flag

    Since the Q4 Conference Call of Feb 18th......BGS stock price is down 5.6 %
    Bad, but not terrible, considering the news in the call.

    Really didn't see a $ 27 handle on this stock for more than a short time...now the stock is
    at $ 28.65.

    Barring an overall market drop BGS should trend slightly higher over the next several trading
    sessions, if gasoline stay relatively low and wage growth remains on track, as we will see
    on next Friday's govt jobs data release.

    I feared a near term "26 plus" trade, but it didn't happen

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 27, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    SDRL has several expensive drilling rigs coming from the ship yards in
    the next several quarters...plus the extra rigs PBR will not use. These
    additions come to the SDRL comes at a large cost..

    .."yearly cash interest payments"...and "cash payments for maturing
    bonds" are real issues for all drillers now, especially highly leveraged
    firms like SDRL....

    Their $ 17 billion backlog is evaporating by the week (as it is for all
    off-shore drilling firms)

    BTW ...I never said BK regarding SDRL ...but I would say "cash flows
    available to fund operations & service debt obligations"....YOU said
    BK regarding SDRL twice above...not us..!

    JF is a financial engineer, at his core. Things for him are great when
    markets are strong, but as Frontline investors have found out the hard way,
    when markets tighten, often JF investors realize huge loses.......that
    rarely reverse.

    BK not really, but solvency and robust FCF generation.....often hard to
    see long term.....is SDRL & its investors going down that path...?
    I guess we agree to disagree.

    NADL is really an after-thought in SDRL's core financial plans I suspect.

  • Reply to

    anyone listen to the cc?

    by malboeuf1 Feb 26, 2015 10:05 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 27, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    US sanctions are not going away in 2015 ........this makes the closing of the Rosneft
    deal somewhat irrelevant from a practical standpoint.......

    A new Rosneft & NADL deal can be resurrected quickly and closed if/when Putin
    decides to become a reliable member of the G20 community...but not until.

  • Reply to

    Oil will drop until May

    by outofbeer10 Feb 27, 2015 12:18 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 27, 2015 7:00 PM Flag

    OOB10 .......

    US on-shore rigs are being reduced ......but the strong producing rigs are going to be running & producing
    while new and low producing rigs will be cut ........

    ......domestically produced crude, found by US firms, can not be exported....so Cushing, OK should see
    its crude volumes increase in March

    US refiners are now making profits "hand over fist" with the WTI vs global refined products spread real wide
    at this time.......

    SLB will benefit from any area of the energy sector that sees a need for improved services or field technology
    to reduce crude production costs........my only question is how great of a relative value will investors see
    SLB over the next several weeks.

  • Reply to

    not earning the dividend

    by analyst112 Feb 27, 2015 1:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 27, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Super fast look at an earnings summary shows me that SLRC ......

    *** $ 115 million of new loan originations but $ 224 million of early repayments......

    No way that Gross is going to grow the dividend .....if he can't manage to
    maintain and grow the size of the loan portfolio......! I guess there was no real
    progress on the Uni-traunche idea that Gross has spouted off about over the
    past 3 quarters.......

    Looks like gross is continuing to morph this BDC into a floating bank loan
    mutual fund......there's not a lot of liquidity in that sector of the debt market
    so if something scary happens in these loans....watch for an over-sized drop
    in NAV with SLRC. This could happen when it becomes more clear that Yellen
    will hike short rates..........OK, just as long as investors know what they own....

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