I can't say that the weak performance of JWN, M, DD & many other soft-goods retailers
is a valid predictor of the stock action in the next 5 weeks for SBUX......
SBUX is at approx $ 62 at this time & seems poised to trend higher up to and through
$ 65 by year end based upon strong traffic and YOY comps .........SBUX current guidance
is enough to power its shares higher into 12-31
As I have mentioned before, we will see how SBUX does soon........
I like the Qdoba portion of JACK ......I might have held JACK
We all know about LOCO.........a slow grinder
good luck to you ......
PF paid $ 11 per share for BDBD and assumes approx 4 265 million in revolving debt.
So on a very basic calc, PF paid 16 times EBITDA for BDBD this morning.
(BDBD's EBITDA TTM was approx $ 44 million and PF pays out $ 710 million)
Probably too expensive for Cantwell to consider.
BTW, PF also owns Bird's Eye frozen veggies, the US leading frozen veggie brand..
Maybe PF will take its eye off the Bird Eye ball, as it works to integrate BDBD & allows Green Giant to make market share gains....? Just a thought.
PF just bought BDBD this morning ......
Granted, BGS has its hands full with the Green Giant purchase, but the brands
that Boulder carries, which are the growing healthy foods type, would have been
a great addition for the BGS line-up.
BDBD probably would have wanted more than 10 X EBITDA.......and BGS could
not or would not pay that type of premium, even for growing, healthy food brands
A lost opportunity...???
Green Giant better work out for BGS in 2016 .......!!
I believe that CELG is weak as a Rev-only firm but agree that its upcoming constellation of Rxs
for many new diseases, is a far less risky proposition for CELG in the years to come......
many new agents for blood cancers seem plausible for CELG in the years ahead...
Is the progress of CC-223 & CC-115 for solid tumor indications the real ''wild card'' in the Celgene
''hand of the future"..?
I see many other Rxs, from many other firms competing with Celgene in the blood cancer/MDS field.
Many different IMIS backbones in trials/research....Do you agree..?
huge data sets ......
Can you provide your very brief opinion on these data above....
Its tough to conduct a conversation here, but I give you credit
for your comprehensive replies.....you make several good
reasonable points, that you support with data.
I appreciate your reply .......
LOCO is a 2015 disappointment stock, so the downdraft after the Q3 results
was not unexpected, and the rebound, too, is a reasonable event, back up to
$ 12.00 perhaps....... ?
LOCO is a fairly high beta name, we all would agree.
I do not see the upside news for a stock price move above $ 12.00 given
the recent results and guidance revision.
Buying LOCO at approx $ 10.00, as I infer from your post, is a safe entry.
You might get $ 12.50 in the next 12 weeks, but IMO not much more.
LOCO is your classic busted IPO stock, settling back to its real valuation
based upon its ongoing operational results & not its IPO hype..
Hope you see ''above $ 12'' for your current position.
I agree that your post provides orderly expansion going forward ........
for LOCO stock price to trade at a higher price multiple (above 25)
requires to add more than 30 new outlets per year.
To me it doesn't look like LOCO will add 30 new locations in 2016.....
so LOCO will continue to trade under a 20 P/E ratio....
Your rally today was cut off at approx $ 11.90
weak price action this afternoon into the close.
If your cost is around $ 10.00 then you will be OK longer term.
LOCO tried to test but failed the $ 12 .00 level early this afternoon ........
your range remains intact for near-term LOCO action.
On a one day or one week move.........I think there is nothing uniquely new that moves
LOCO out of its recent trading range .......IMO, LOCO follows the QSR action as a whole.
Gross says a that a huge % of his loan portfolio is now secured and floating rate debt instruments.......
.......most, but not all floating rate debt carries interest rate floors ....most have a 1 % rate floor.
Terms like ''3 month LIBOR plus 1%'' plus the coupon negotiated........
...now, 3 month LIBOR is 0.37 % and the Fed says it will hike to 0.25 % in December
....so the rates will not reset until the 3 month LIBOR gets above 1%........the Fed needs to hike more
than just once in 2016 to see the current loans reset to higher interest rate yields.
The big problem I see is that Fed hikes usually happen when there is clear signs that the economy is
increasing its GDP growth rate.......IMO 2016 GDP grows approx 2 %. Not increasing GDP growth.
Will the firms in the SLRC loan portfolio be hurt by the slight reduction in economic growth that a
few Fed hikes could initiate in 2016...???
Or has Gross found resilient firms who will pay off in a slightly weaker 2016 economic environment..?
IMO do not look for the floating rate reset features in the SLRC loan portfolio to bail out investors
in 2016......SLRC NAV goes lower in 2016 & I think the stock price will too. By mid Spring 2016
the market might see how the SLRC portfolio reacts to Yellen.
Paul Singer has track record of repairing broken mgmt teams over the years.
Elliot employs teams for analysts, lawyers & top mgmt personnel who can
see in the data sets what is wrong with the firms its takes an activist position.
Eliot only takes large stock positions in the firms it can repair, its easy for them.
They have tons of capital ans smarts. Any shareholder who buys in the open
market should be able to leave as fast as they want.
AA get to be a better stock investment when aluminum prices recover.
Margins improve for value added when KK really markets its benefits ....
both occur when global economic demand increases.
The split happens late next year......mid term event, IMO not a long way away.
AA is only a longer term investment for profits....... be patient in the next
6 to 12 months here. Look for low AA stock prices to enter or add, then hold
BTW I am watching SKX now .....
Their earnings IMO were not as bad as the
market's reaction and the decision Friday could
help the stock price if Nov revenues are healthy .......
Their price is better now as compared to several
Near term price surprise with the news that Elliot owns 6.5 %
AA stock still goes as aluminum prices go ........
I thought Elliot wants better margins in the value added segment of the business, specifically.
Elliot supports KK thus far and has meetings with him.
IMO this activist move insures the split in 2016.
But the AA stock price is at the mercy of aluminum commodity price trends still, even with Elliot engaged.