good post …
All I would say is that there are many Taco/Polo QSR firms that could be the "next CMG"
I think & invest in LOCO because it could be the next CMG is a risky proposition, IMO.
LOCO is now playing for the 2nd place spot behind CMG …..
Not all burger joints are losing market share….there are several burger joints
growing faster than LOCO.
There are other Taco/Polo concept firms that compete outperform LOCO at present.
LOCO is not cheap from many valuation metrics
You have opinions….but it ain't evidence….!
Not the best idea to invest on the premise that a firm will be bought out…..
The high P/E imp,its that investors are betting that FRGI will be successful in its build out plans……
or the stock price craters……...
Hispanic populations will buy more Taco/Burrito foods per capita than other populations…
check the data.
There are more hispanics in Cal, by far, than any other state. There are pretty of hispanic
suburban neighborhoods in Cal.
FRGI needs to establish the supply chain from TX to NM, to Arizona and to California……
there is more than enough QSR dollars to garner …for the best Taco/Pollo food firm.
FRGI can never be the premier Taco/Pollo food QSR operator without entering and
competing full out in the premier Hispanic market…California.
BEAV is 24 % higher than Koury's KLXI, effective March 24th 2015……
Now does everyone see why the activists entered & intervened in BEAV in May 2014………????
This should be proof to all that Koury was beginning to kill the aero business to favor his
ugly step child…….the KLXI brain child.
Excellent post ….patience & discipline are not sexy but they are profitable….!
Keep active, keep your own hip and keep making $$$ in this market….!
Your are correct …again.
For AMNF …."KISS"
AMNF should simply expand its current product distribution & maybe add similar Italian
high quality/high flavor (maybe not so healthy) products
AMNF rate limiting factor is its own scale, not total market size.
I say ESV has way less than a 50 % chance of BK ……..ESV mgmt runs a conservative
balance sheet. They also have long time relationships in this market, unlike many other
I do agree with you that ESV could drop further….and I agree that Brent crude returns to
levels above $ 75 within "several quarters"
Not the time to add to my existing ESV position, but that time will come later in 2015.
I have no plans to sell ESV.
2015 is the exact wrong time to reduce your overall energy sector exposure……
……think October 2009.
AAPL has a lot more shares outstanding than LOCO
AAPL 2014 EPS was $ 14.13
LOCO 2014 EPS was $ 0.55
over time, valuations will reach a valid relationship
Put 2 Barington BOD candidates on this summer ….
…...or simply go hostile and activist & get rid of the CEO.
It wouldn't cost too much to gain control for a few activists….but like Gabelli most might have
already made their profits and are moving on…..
Leonard is too trivial to spend much time on…….long term EML shareholders are stuck with
him until he crooks.
$ 14.13 EPS in 2014
Stock price is $ 687
2014 P/E is 48.6
CMG PEG is 1.87
CMG Price to sales is 5.18
$ 0.55 EPS in 2014
Stock price is $ 27.00
2014 P/E is 49
LOCO PEG is 2.47
LOCO price to sales is 2.93
CMG implied 2015 growth rate is greater than LOCO……hope
this helps explains how CMG gets its stock price valuation.
There is no mystery…..
sounds to me LOCO maybe did not as strong of control over its franchisees as it should have
back then……probably would not happen now.
A fool & his money are soon parted….?
LOCO "still affordable" with a forward P/E of 39 …….?
Only if LOCO posts beats for revenues and margins in Q1 & Q2 2015 results.
Steakburgers revenues growth was 9.4 % …much higher than LOCO
LOCO next competition could come from Fiesta Restaurant Group……FRGI has better
2015 growth metrics & approx the same number of outlets, but not yet moving into CA.
The LOCO CEO said 2015 revenue growth would be "3 to 5 %" during the recent
Q4 2014 Conference Call…….definitely NOT "3 times the growth of CMG"