LOCO posted a "meet" EPS number today…guidance was for 70-71 cents for the
full year 2015
LOCO is a high beta stock, as we all know. It goes up and it goes down in relatively
large % amounts on any given day.
IMO the Street is expecting LOCO to easily beat its guidance, but that didn't happen in Q1.
so the volatile "after hours" crowd is killing the stock….big deal.
LOCO tomorrow or next week should recover most if not all of its after hours loses from tonight.
LOCO is traded like a high growth stock & when LOCO does not beat by a large margin, then
a large % of longs sell first & ask questions later. Short term noise, if you think the LOCO
story was about a weak economy and not about poor execution.
Wait a week & then see where LOCO trades….tonight its mostly about noise in an illiquid
probable "panic poster" attempting to put fear in the minds of unsure LOCO investors.
Thanks for your post that clarifies the shorts position.
Sorry but your one person opinion on the Southern California Mexican QSR market has zero impact
for investors ……..
However feel free to enjoy whichever QSR Mexican restaurant you would like.
The CEO does not control the near term behavior of the stock ........get a clue
The CEO has delivered strong but not exciting results so far.
You imply the CEO should be fired because you don't like the stock price action.
You should be fired as an "investor"
ROST is going to split in June.....so $ 90 in July would be great.....!
(yes I know you mean on a pre-split basis)
Seriously I feel ROST mgmt execution shows no signs of slowing down.
IMO, ROST is a strong operator in the sweet spot of the US soft goods retail marketplace.
I did not "thumbs down" your post.
There is an awful lot of hate being posted today about how LOCO is being down the
tubes......all kinds of posts, but zero news or facts or developments.
I ask that everyone here remember this day.........Friday, July 10th.....when many posters
were piling on LOCO.
Remember this day on Sept 15th.............a little over 2 months from now & after the
Q2 LOCO earnings report. Those investors who did their Due Diligence and educated
themselves before taking a position in LOCO will be rewarded on Sept 15th for their
efforts and risk management.
All the current hate posts and negative talk during this period of quiet news from LOCO
comes from day trading momentum folks who never learn about the firms they buy or
sell. They just post anger when they lose (often) and beat their chest when they make
near term correct guesses.
LOCO will not be impacted by Greece or the Euro or Iran or even a Fed rate hike under
200 bps, if done slowly, LOCO future prospects are largely in their own hands. And over
time, that's what will determine how LOCO investors will come out.
So go ahead and book your loses if you are scared.........but remember Sept 15th and
see how things are going for LOCO then...!!
blackout & others
Even with a market collapse I think LMT stays above $ 115
$ 115 IMO would imply a major lose of earnings (maybe the F-35 gets shelved)
I do not think the F-35 will be rejected this late in its development cycle.
International buyers are making up a larger portion of the major defense
revenues. Cybersecurity is a growth industry for defense firms going forward.
These emerging issues provides added diversification & added relative safety
for LMT future (2016-2025) earnings flows.
If LMT ever hit $ 115, as dOn3 posts, that would be a generational buying
opportunity that I doubt I will be around to see.
RIG tells the market it is taking 3 more drilling rigs out of operation….and the entire
set or takes a hit…….broad-based sector selling again.
This RIG news does not impact PACD.
The 3 drilling flatworms that RIG retired were, IMO, medium spec semi submersibles.
PACD is only in the high spec drill-ship portion of the off-shore sector.
PACD is weak today due to investors selling all drillers, no matter what their expertise.
This sector could now be in an "overshot on the downside" environment……...
remember the LA wage hike is phased in over 5 years……
plenty of time for any firm to adjust to this added cost.
LOCO will certainly hike its food prices at least a % of
the upcoming wage increase as well.
Wow, that's a pretty presumptuous post from you....!!!
Everybody is allowed to post on this public message board.
If you don't happen to agree with abwww, then post your reasons why.
The above post lessens YOUR credibility here on the LOCO board.
All opinions should be allowed their right to exist for all to read and allow
all investors to decide for themselves.
after the strong report yesterday, who cares about what happens to ZOES in the next
4 1/2 hours .....?? Not me.
Q1 indicated to all that the ZOES mgmt is delivering the growth as planned.
This stock goes on a higher trend for the rest of the year.
Therefore what I would like LOCO mgmt to do.....
1) cut the size of the menu (helps # 10)
2) aggressively open the 5 target cities in late 2015 and early 2016
3) take out additional debt to fund rapid openings of corporate units
in the 5 targeted cities.(for #8, #9, #2)
4) Make the recruitment and development of franchisees a high priority.
5) Consider selling corporate units to qualified existing franchisees.
6) Keep SSS over 7 % by building winning food offerings
7) Increase the price slightly on the best selling food items.(helps #6)
8) Work with vendor to insure that expansion to the new 4 states goes
smoothly for customers (helps #2, #4, #9)
9) open at least 40 units in 2016
10) work to reduce wait time at drive ups (helps #6)
For my investing perspective, LOCO should worry about building
revenues and make margins/EBITDA secondary. New franchisees
will need time to maximize their operations, just help them get and
keep sales. Distribution/sales IMO is the name of the game in
nationwide QSR success. Profits will surely coming once quality
franchisees are identified.
In the 2nd half of 2015 either the LOCO expansion strategic plan works
or it doesn't. Let's decide and truly believe it does and accelerate the
mid states introduction. The market wants real proof that TX and the
5 cities can be rolled out quickly and successfully.
Do this & LOCO is at $ 60 - $ 75 in Dec 2016.
Thanks for posting data from the LOCO presentation. Helps all investor
see real data sets that is the real LOCO enterprise.
I have a few comments and concerns
LOCO avg check is really low, especially compared to the other major
Mexican food QSRs. CMG avg check, every customer, every thing,
is 27 % higher than LOCO. That's Million of $$$$ each day in EBITDA...!
SSS seem to me to be trending lower.....last quarter was 5.1 % which was
the lower in the past 7 quarters. As an investor in a fast growing stock
I would like to see this figure trending higher.
LOCO is 60 % franchisees, 40 % corporate.
LOCO can never grow fast via corporate unit growth. LOCO needs to have
much higher growth in its franchisees segment. MCD is over 90 %
franchisee operated, I believe..
I think LOCO needs to take on more debt not reduce their debt at this time.
LOCO needs to speed up its introduction in OKC, KC, St Louis, N Orleans
and Denver by taking on more debt to complete new corporate units in each
of these targeted cities ASAP, so that LOCO can then recruit additional/new
franchisees who will double or triple the units running in each of these cities.
IMO for this to happen LOCO has to purchase capital to build out fast its
beachhead of new units in these next 4 states.....if LOCO goes slowly
introducing new units in new cities, then the market will never assign a
high multiple of a fast growing QSR enterprise.
By now LOCO mgmt and shareholders must decide that the LOCO
model works and it must to aggressively rolled out fast........or mgmt
needs to tell the market that LOCO is not yet ready for prime time.
Right now, IMO again, the market is telling LOCO mgmt it doesn't
really believe that mgmt can truly aggressively role out LOCO on a
more to follow ......
LOCO hasn't drifted lower in the past 6 weeks ......LOCO will continue to
trade in a tight range into earnings, barring an overall market drop.
Don't you think asking for estimated EBITDA projections 2 to 3 years in the future
is a little unreasonable to request........? Way too many variable can change
within that time-frame.