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Solar Capital Ltd. Message Board

jackmaster20 787 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2009
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  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 10 hours ago Flag

    fncy

    Focusing on the SoCal LOCO business misses the point of investing in LOCO
    in 2015, post IPO.

    SoCal LOCO is a stable entrenched business that ''everyone knows''

    The money to be made in LOCO stock in 2015-2017 is in the renewed plans to
    expand into the western & Southwestern states and ultimately into the Midwest.

    IMO this is not about what is sold in existing outlets in California but rather can
    LOCO recruit new high quality franchisee operators in other states than California...
    as you say this will entail broadening the LOCO customer demographics....

    Lastly, QSR expansion investing is a high beta proposition, as you probably know.
    The real money to be made in this sector is be be early and make sure each
    investor has formulated his own risk adjusted profit projection and associated
    exit parameters.

    LOCO for me is only worth my investing capital and DD efforts if I am in under $ 20.
    For me LOCO full year 2015 of 72 cents keeps me in the stock, no matter what
    the market price does short term....

    BTW, what is your Q2 EPS prediction for LOCO...?

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 12 hours ago Flag

    fncy

    Buller looks to be a minor member of the 2015 BOD for LOCO.....I would doubt his
    additional in July 2015 really impacts LOCO strategy or tactics this year.

    As another poster pointed out Buller is a friend of the LOCO holding company.
    Is Buller assigned as a pair of eyes for the holding company or he was added as a
    simple gesture in compliance toward the holding company...?

    I too feel a better selection could have been made by Sather, but maybe Sather was
    ''asked'' to make this appointment. Either way Buller has little impact on current LOCO
    expansion plans.

    Maybe if Sather succeeds with the current LOCO plan, maybe he gets to add one of
    his own BOD nominatees.......and Buller steps down.

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 13 hours ago Flag

    fncy

    An elegant diatribe concerning viral contamination of the mid continent egg & chicken supply.......

    I find it interesting that you head this post in reference to LOCO.

    If LOCO was a fully built out QSR located in every region/state in the union I would be more
    concerned with your essay. However the LOCO story is about a SoCal Mexican QSR
    with approx 300 outlets, attempting again to expand into the southwest and west regions
    and looking to grow its franchisee network to realize approx 1000 outlets in the next several years.

    True LOCO sell a large % of chicken at the outlets, but I feel there are many other variables
    like hourly wages, franchisee receipts and growth rate of store openings in TX, CO, Utah
    that will have a larger impact on the success of the current LOCO strategic plan.

    Net operating margins might suffer near term, but LOCO needs to attract new, high quality
    franchisees who will in turn increase the number cities & outlets operating. LOCO success
    in this endevour will have a much larger impact on its success & stock price, then the
    transient supply & cost of chicken.

    BTW, I am ''slightly'' long LOCO going into Q2 earnings.

  • Reply to

    the coming fed hike of late 2015 .......

    by jackmaster20 Jun 17, 2015 10:05 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 13 hours ago Flag

    rgchjr

    I feel that when the market ''sees'' the Yellen hike in focus the market will
    sell off first (1) firms that employ a higher amount of leverage and (2) firms
    that rely on debt to grow their businesses.

    IMO B&G Foods fits both of those criteria.

    BGS is a ''barrow money to buy EBITDA'' firm & the market will punish
    the share price, I am afraid, because right now BGS is ''highly leveraged''
    as compared to its normal leverage ratio levels of the recent past.

    IMO I think Cantwell wants the BGS leveraged ratio down below 3.5 ASAP
    for the very reason that he knows that BGS is a target of the market when
    its debt to EBITDA ratio is above 4.0.

    Thanks for your post.

  • Reply to

    LOCO to 10/share. Bad earnings coming.

    by kneel_before_zodd Jul 30, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 13 hours ago Flag

    zodd

    I see you are on the short side here.
    I assume you are saying that after LOCO Q2 results are released that earnings will be bad.

    What then is your prediction for Q2 EPS..?
    Sounds like you think it will be a ''big miss'' to make the share price drop 46.8 % from its close
    this afternoon.....

    Share with us, if you will, any other Q2 number predictions you have.
    Maybe share with us your rationale as to how you arrived at your prediction.

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 19 hours ago Flag

    lily

    I didn't think Q4 was that bad....no matter what the consensus estimates state.
    PC revenues were down a lot.....not SYNA target market IMO

    I do worry though about a weak Q1 report...signs that the mobile business is soft for SYNA.

    SYNA bouncing back today after the morning ''crash'' ...maybe the market does buy the
    analyst's estimates either...?

  • Reply to

    Fncydansir says loco is BK

    by brokeoldjoo Jul 30, 2015 11:21 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 19 hours ago Flag

    nutcase

    Why don't you just summarize what your guru wrote
    so we all can get on with our investing lives.......

    You wouldn't happen to get compensated for traffic
    levels over on the mela board by any chance.....?

    So are all of your posts seem slanted and biased
    toward a specific website and author........

  • Reply to

    Cancelling my Barron's subscription

    by lm38mul Jun 17, 2015 1:28 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    Im38mul = lemming ...............?????

    or just a sucker ........(sorry that was not nice to call a fellow ''investor'')

    which one is the more accurate ....?

    Actual due diligence helps sidestep blind-sided ''flushes'' of capital.
    Crying after the fact is a sign of weakness.
    Get over it & more on.

  • Reply to

    jackmaster20 AKA Meryl Witmer

    by lm38mul Jul 17, 2015 9:32 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    CSTM ........ slow into the USA auto market and now bad pricing for aluminum.....
    and you still blame it upon Meryl Witmer's call almost 2 years ago......????

  • Reply to

    Zacks covers LMT a good buy now!

    by stocker4949 Jul 30, 2015 3:48 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    IMO its never wise to follow a single analyst source for a stock recommendation
    too many conflicts could be at play & its only one opinion

  • Reply to

    Fncydansir says loco is BK

    by brokeoldjoo Jul 30, 2015 11:21 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    Yeah right, I bet he does

    Tell me, how do you even keep track of HIS stock track record....?

    SPAM

  • Reply to

    LOCO order near the close ......

    by jackmaster20 Jul 27, 2015 4:21 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    For what it is worth......maybe nothing...!

    I filled the 20 % sleeve at 3:59 PM just now.
    Filled at a price of $ 18.34.

    happened right into the close.

    My entire positive cost per share is now $ 19.05.

    Theoretically still have 60 % to invest, but no guarantees
    that I employ the full 100 % allotment.

  • Reply to

    10 trading sessions

    by jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 3:04 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    thanks for the clarification

  • jackmaster20 by jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    On Thursday August 13th after the close, LOCO reports its Q2 earnings .......
    that's 10 trading sessions from today. Not many sessions left, IMO.

    Although the market is taking back at least a large portion of yesterday's gains
    from LOCO investors, I think it might be interesting to see if LOCO's price
    starts to move consistently in one direction as we get closer to the report.

    IMO, don't expect any type of news from LOCO for the next 2 weeks.....

    I also think any revision in guidance is the most important aspect of the
    Q2 report. I would like to hear Sather be a little more positive, but maybe we
    don't get a change of tone yet.....

    I invite all fellow LOCO investors, both long and short, to post their Q2
    EPS or YOY same store sales (SSS) or any other metric of interest for
    this board of investors to ponder and discuss.

    I am thinking today that LOCO posts a 19 cent EPS for Q2.
    I predict that LOCO ups EPS guidance for the full year 2015 to 76-77 cents.
    I will try to get back with a SSS prediction a little later.

  • Reply to

    401(k) settlement info...

    by wheelguy144 Jul 21, 2015 3:40 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    This is the LMT stock message board at Yahoo Finance.

    Why don't you old LMT employees simply go over to the LMT
    Settlement website and talk about this non-issue for as long as
    you want..? There's probably a lot of folks over there now who
    could help you last week..!!!

    I can't believe you guys think your narrow issue could possibly
    impact the LMT share price...!!! You are giving yourselves way
    too much credit...!

    There's probably tons of old ex-LMT employees to chat with over
    at the LMT settlement website who will love to talk 401(K) issues
    with you until the cows come home....!

    As I have told you old guys before, this is the Yahoo Finance
    message board used for investing info, debate and ideas....not
    so much as a LMT benefits board.......

    BTW my chip on my shoulder is that its good for adults to
    realize where they are and to stay focused on relevant topics
    ...investing topics. The vast majority of investors who buy and
    sell LMT stock care ZERO about employee benefit issues.

    Because its just not relevant to the investing conversation.

  • Reply to

    stock split coming

    by brokeoldjoo Jul 29, 2015 12:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    And the entire time its an non-event

    85 % of the shareholders of LMT are intsitutionals who do not care
    what the stock price is, they only care about the stock value.......

    I wish more retail investors here would focus more on valuation
    and less on ''splits'' ...........!

  • Reply to

    Easy to "Know" when to Buy, but when to sell...

    by wooglin_kai Jul 28, 2015 1:48 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    wooglin

    OK, thanks for the quick explanation.

  • Reply to

    the coming fed hike of late 2015 .......

    by jackmaster20 Jun 17, 2015 10:05 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    The revised positive Q1 GDP data and the 2 % plus Q2 initial GDP number
    gives Yellen the cover to hike 25 bps in September .....

    At least Cantwell got one brand acquisition done before the hike at a good price
    of 6.6 times Mama Mary's annual EBITDA.

    With Rickland Orchards and New York Style brands floundering still and zero
    signs of future improvement, IMO if rates increase in the market by a relatively
    large amount, its going to be tougher for Cantwell to find reasonable brand
    acquisitions in the future that support further stock price increases over the
    next several quarters.

  • Reply to

    Q2 results for SPR

    by jackmaster20 Jul 29, 2015 5:38 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    jr mack

    So you must be saying that mgmt feels buying SPR at its 10 year high is the optimum
    way to put cash flow to work..........I don't but that

    If that was the case, mgmt should have bought their stock back in 2008 through 2012
    when the SPR stock traded roughly on an average of $ 20...!
    Back in 2011 & 2012 mgmt knew that BA and Airbus were designing new jets & now
    the entire market knows, so there is high probability that SPR growth is more fully
    priced into the stock now.

    No, I strongly think mgmt has a few extra bucks and wants to insure EPS increases
    which could be a major input for their compensation, by cutting the total outstanding
    shares.

    If you look at the data you will see the main reason SPR posted a large FCF
    growth metric is because they sold the Gulfstream business. SPR mgmt made
    a transaction. So new levels of FCF should be employed to execute bolt on
    acquisitions, not buybacks at done at historic high stock prices...!

    $ 800 million of FCF plus another $ 800 million of debt financed at current very low
    interest rates could fund a very nice business that would grow additional FCF
    for years to come.

  • Reply to

    Never goes up 2 days in a row

    by scjohnson4047 Jul 30, 2015 9:51 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Jul 30, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Careful there, scj

    always is a long, long time........
    .....always & never are 2 words I try not to use

    I have been burnt too many times

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