Great comments on the BOD and discussions with a
Only thing I would add....if a new CEO is signed, other
than our current CFO, Mr Estonina .....then I would say
that is a clear sign that AMNF is not for sale in the
near term.....and a new outside CEO would be given
time to implement his/her new strategic plan.
What........??? Take money out of your IRA......?????
Heck BB63, I thought you were some hot shot "millennial" money mger or
some foundation investment manager.....!!!
I thought I was the old guy here..!
Leave the AMNF shares for the family...let them figure it out how to liquidate.
We are here for the competition and to make winning investment decisions.
Living here in Michigan I only need enough money, in March 2015, to buy
salt and a heavy duty trunk with a snow plow blade...my cash needs are
simple....unfortunately. I want to go to Spring training, but its not going
Thanks for your reply .........agree that US crude production investment
is massively front-loaded. Certainly E&Ps need the cash flow to fund
their existing cost/debt structures.
I am thinking the dwindling production rates on US shale is faster than
the willingness of domestic E&P to re-invest in a mid-year "iffy" crude market
and we then see the current refining spread shrink ....into May/June/July and
maybe Q3 2015....?
I agree with you that PSX refining spreads will continue to be "robust"
into 2015....maybe not better than current "nirvana" scenario we now enjoy..?
Lastly I don't understand your statement/idea about high domestic crude
production allows the crude differential to grow.....maybe just a few words
of explanation on that point......
Don't allow the chronic red thumbs to "rent time in your brain for free".....
There are a lot of good investor around who post good
comments/data/ideas. We can concentrate on these folks instead...
You mean you won't be up at 0530 PST tomorrow to get the news of
the maintained dividend from AMNF....!!!??? I don't blame you...!
never been a real fan of special dividends......doesn't inspire the same confidence in me
as steady div hikes at "reasonable" intervals....but this is only my opinion
What I would really like to see is hold the div & make a bolt-on complementary brand buy.
Gelato...?? Fresh/frozen Italian ham...? How about a high end anchovy brand..?
Just off the cuff ideas....no real DD.
Thanks for the data sets you provide......looks like AMNF could up the payout if they want......
BTW, BB63, try not let the anonymous thumbs down get to you.......this is a public message
board, as you know, and all kinds of "investors" are floating around...
I know I have inherited a few "perpetual thumbs downers" who do nothing but give my
posts the Big Red Thumb....! Such is life at Yahoo Finance.
I know you to be a strong poster of good info & comments.
Don't let the fringe element get under your skin....!
Best regards to you, BB63 & all cordial investors here.
I am long PSX
Spreads are at cycle highs ...so the market sees some reversion
to the spread mean...........inland crude production will ease over
the next few months and refined prices/demand remain strong
means spreads could narrow for PSX & others...?
The market sees this........
Thanks for your good posts ......not trying to be negative, but
My only concern is .......as inland US production starts to recline in the months to come,
will that not support and raise WTI pricing......and by extension lower the advantaged
margins over to the east coast and reduce refined margins this late spring....?
I am trying to think not what we see now, but what we will see in Q2 and Q3.........
Your comments would be appreciated.
Hope your ROST entry was under triple digits......
"the chart" indicates past investor sentiment...not
the best means to discount future prospects.....
You ought to go buy SPY and get instant diversification.
Next, use your specific stock ideas as "trade around"
plays to add marginal alpha for your entire portfolio.....
Then here's is how it works out .......
Retail workers now hear there is a wage hike at TJX
(workers at TGT, KSS, CVS, WGRN, JCP, DG, DTR, Sears etc will take note)
Those existing TJX workers who increase their productivity consummate with their wage
increases, will be promoted and receive additional wage hikes...."success stories"'..!
.......while those TJX workers who are not motivated by added wages will be removed and
workers from other retailers will be employed and given their chance to make more wages
and be more productive.......
An extra $ 400 per month can make a difference for retail workers now earning $ 7.50/hr.
By increasing their employees wage rate, TJX is seeking out the better portions of all
retailer's work force. Go to your local mall and see if TJX can attract the top 25 %
of workers you see working.......TJX is not simply giving away money to their current
employees.......they are attempting to expand their reach of better potential employees
that are currently working elsewhere.
If workers, in aggregate, don't respond to higher wages, as you fear, then its TJX mgmt
at the store level's fault. All retail stores, despite what consumers see on a daily basis,
need to be actively managed.
For growing restaurant concepts the metric to watch is YOY same store
For expending restaurants to survive they must get additional people into
their dining establishments...........per item food margins will take care of
themselves if LOCO can continue to get more folks in each of their
locations year after year.......
In Q1 2016, when the US economy has continued to grow
and interest rates are the same due to ECB & BOJ liquidity
programs ends up on US shores ........
......Gross still will not be able to originate new loans with
higher rates, he could have found in late 2013 or 2014 ..........
If Gross can't find high rates in 2015, than he must originate more loans, even with lower rates......
.....I could hold EM blue chip corp debt, hedge the currency
risk as needed, and still receive close to the SLRC dividend rate.....!!
I never implied that AMNF utilizing TV or "advertising"
Please don't try to 'win" by making broad assumptions of
what other investors are saying...! Again AMNF has not
stated what type of promo it is employing....you have an
opinion that you seem to want to push off as fact, however
only internal AMNF or distributor staff knows for sure
at this time.
AMNF says they are adding promo costs/investments.
I read this to mean that AMNF is adding promo exp faster
than they are adding additional sales, from a % basis.
This does not sound like the typical shelf space slotting
costs used to open new distribution. However if my
assumption on promo cost growth is wrong, please
feel free to correct me where appropriate.
Every retail food product has competition of some sort....
High end frozen Italian are not sold on the classic "price
and promo" model. Retail distribution strata and product
quality levels allow higher end brands to move away from
the "price wars" that very competitive mass market retail
brands face everyday.....
If AMNF is in this very competitive brand environment, then
its a poor long term investment......
I contend that promo exps is an inefficient use of FCFs for firms
like AMNF. Instead, use the FCFs to increase the number of outlets
carrying AMNF full line of products.....in the NW.
Get 30 NW Costco to carry just the best 2 AMNF frozen products and
we would all see the AMNF production lines run at least 16 hours per day....!
With zero promo exp and strong margins .......then watch the funds
jump on the AMNF stock...!
What has happened to the AMNF dividend pay out ratio over the
past several years...? Up or down..?
promo exp are typically employed for brands which have strong
market saturation AND in competitive categories.....i.e. Ragu
sauce or Kellogg cereals......
IMO AMNF has not reached strong market saturation (plenty of
outlets to add at full price) and I would think high end frozen Italian
foods are regional brands with little direct competition........
I don't see why AMNF would employ promo instead of adding
distribution exp to add outlets. Adding one full line AMNF outlet
gives AMNF a large stocking order plus run-rate sales whereas
promo might increase revenues but not net operating profits.....
But of course AMNF give no rationale for its promo strategy.
Export refined products but not crude directly .......
Foreign crude E&P firms should not be allowed to export crude either........
......crude located in the ground/off-shore USA is a national resource and not
solely a tool for optimizing profits for a few energy firms.
If you spend a lot of time at these drilling locations then you should be familiar
with US crude production in the 1950-60s and crude production pre-2000.
Possibly too many "me too" financially & technologically weak" E&P firms
sprout up to exploit "easy periods of crude production....not all of these firms
are required & SA is proving that point now.
Export US crude directly today and watch where USA energy sources revert to
in the next 20 years ...the same place as from 1970 to 2005. But add Russia