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B/E Aerospace Inc. Message Board

jackmaster20 669 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 19 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 2 hours 19 minutes ago Flag

    ah, you're still just a kid....!

    sell the AMNF if you need & spend every last dime
    you don't send to the IRS....!

  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 4 hours ago Flag


    Great comments on the BOD and discussions with a
    CEO candidate.....

    Only thing I would add....if a new CEO is signed, other
    than our current CFO, Mr Estonina .....then I would say
    that is a clear sign that AMNF is not for sale in the
    near term.....and a new outside CEO would be given
    time to implement his/her new strategic plan.

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 5 hours ago Flag

    should have posted this exact message in August 2014 you are a little late

  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 3, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    What........??? Take money out of your IRA......?????

    Heck BB63, I thought you were some hot shot "millennial" money mger or
    some foundation investment manager.....!!!
    I thought I was the old guy here..!

    Leave the AMNF shares for the family...let them figure it out how to liquidate.
    We are here for the competition and to make winning investment decisions.

    Living here in Michigan I only need enough money, in March 2015, to buy
    salt and a heavy duty trunk with a snow plow cash needs are
    simple....unfortunately. I want to go to Spring training, but its not going
    to happen.


  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 3, 2015 7:11 PM Flag


    Thanks for your reply .........agree that US crude production investment
    is massively front-loaded. Certainly E&Ps need the cash flow to fund
    their existing cost/debt structures.

    I am thinking the dwindling production rates on US shale is faster than
    the willingness of domestic E&P to re-invest in a mid-year "iffy" crude market
    and we then see the current refining spread shrink ....into May/June/July and
    maybe Q3 2015....?

    I agree with you that PSX refining spreads will continue to be "robust"
    into 2015....maybe not better than current "nirvana" scenario we now enjoy..?

    Lastly I don't understand your statement/idea about high domestic crude
    production allows the crude differential to grow.....maybe just a few words
    of explanation on that point......


  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 3, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Don't allow the chronic red thumbs to "rent time in your brain for free".....

    There are a lot of good investor around who post good
    comments/data/ideas. We can concentrate on these folks instead...

    You mean you won't be up at 0530 PST tomorrow to get the news of
    the maintained dividend from AMNF....!!!??? I don't blame you...!

  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 3, 2015 4:01 PM Flag


    never been a real fan of special dividends......doesn't inspire the same confidence in me
    as steady div hikes at "reasonable" intervals....but this is only my opinion

    What I would really like to see is hold the div & make a bolt-on complementary brand buy.
    Gelato...?? Fresh/frozen Italian ham...? How about a high end anchovy brand..?
    Just off the cuff real DD.

  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 3, 2015 3:52 PM Flag


    Thanks for the data sets you provide......looks like AMNF could up the payout if they want......

    BTW, BB63, try not let the anonymous thumbs down get to you.......this is a public message
    board, as you know, and all kinds of "investors" are floating around...

    I know I have inherited a few "perpetual thumbs downers" who do nothing but give my
    posts the Big Red Thumb....! Such is life at Yahoo Finance.
    I know you to be a strong poster of good info & comments.
    Don't let the fringe element get under your skin....!

    Best regards to you, BB63 & all cordial investors here.

  • Reply to

    Today's drop

    by g_squared_57 Mar 2, 2015 10:40 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 3, 2015 3:39 PM Flag


    I am long PSX

    Spreads are at cycle highs the market sees some reversion
    to the spread mean...........inland crude production will ease over
    the next few months and refined prices/demand remain strong
    means spreads could narrow for PSX & others...?

    The market sees this........

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 3, 2015 3:33 PM Flag


    Thanks for your good posts ......not trying to be negative, but

    My only concern is inland US production starts to recline in the months to come,
    will that not support and raise WTI pricing......and by extension lower the advantaged
    margins over to the east coast and reduce refined margins this late spring....?

    I am trying to think not what we see now, but what we will see in Q2 and Q3.........

    Your comments would be appreciated.

  • Reply to

    ROST earnings ...!!

    by jackmaster20 Feb 26, 2015 4:16 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 2, 2015 6:56 PM Flag


    Hope your ROST entry was under triple digits......

    "the chart" indicates past investor sentiment...not
    the best means to discount future prospects.....

    You ought to go buy SPY and get instant diversification.
    Next, use your specific stock ideas as "trade around"
    plays to add marginal alpha for your entire portfolio.....

  • Reply to

    TJX wage hike ......

    by jackmaster20 Feb 25, 2015 9:59 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 2, 2015 6:45 PM Flag

    unclegary47 ........

    Then here's is how it works out .......

    Retail workers now hear there is a wage hike at TJX
    (workers at TGT, KSS, CVS, WGRN, JCP, DG, DTR, Sears etc will take note)

    Those existing TJX workers who increase their productivity consummate with their wage
    increases, will be promoted and receive additional wage hikes...."success stories"'..!

    .......while those TJX workers who are not motivated by added wages will be removed and
    workers from other retailers will be employed and given their chance to make more wages
    and be more productive.......

    An extra $ 400 per month can make a difference for retail workers now earning $ 7.50/hr.

    By increasing their employees wage rate, TJX is seeking out the better portions of all
    retailer's work force. Go to your local mall and see if TJX can attract the top 25 %
    of workers you see working.......TJX is not simply giving away money to their current
    employees.......they are attempting to expand their reach of better potential employees
    that are currently working elsewhere.

    If workers, in aggregate, don't respond to higher wages, as you fear, then its TJX mgmt
    at the store level's fault. All retail stores, despite what consumers see on a daily basis,
    need to be actively managed.

  • Reply to

    Compare this to Chipotle trading at 669

    by cacacgtcaa Feb 11, 2015 11:56 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 2, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Whatdid .......

    For growing restaurant concepts the metric to watch is YOY same store

    For expending restaurants to survive they must get additional people into
    their dining establishments...........per item food margins will take care of
    themselves if LOCO can continue to get more folks in each of their
    locations year after year.......

  • Reply to

    SLRC 9-30-2014 debt profile

    by jackmaster20 Jan 25, 2015 3:51 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 2, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    SLRC doesn't have a non-accrual issue in its you imply.

  • Reply to

    not earning the dividend

    by analyst112 Feb 27, 2015 1:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 2, 2015 1:37 PM Flag


    In Q1 2016, when the US economy has continued to grow
    and interest rates are the same due to ECB & BOJ liquidity
    programs ends up on US shores ........

    ......Gross still will not be able to originate new loans with
    higher rates, he could have found in late 2013 or 2014 ..........

    If Gross can't find high rates in 2015, than he must originate more loans, even with lower rates......

    .....I could hold EM blue chip corp debt, hedge the currency
    risk as needed, and still receive close to the SLRC dividend rate.....!!

  • Reply to

    BG Foods ....KISS in Q1 2015

    by jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 8:30 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 2, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    In Michigan Ortega is back on the shelves
    but their space seems less than last fall ........

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 1, 2015 10:13 AM Flag


    I never implied that AMNF utilizing TV or "advertising"
    Please don't try to 'win" by making broad assumptions of
    what other investors are saying...! Again AMNF has not
    stated what type of promo it is have an
    opinion that you seem to want to push off as fact, however
    only internal AMNF or distributor staff knows for sure
    at this time.

    AMNF says they are adding promo costs/investments.
    I read this to mean that AMNF is adding promo exp faster
    than they are adding additional sales, from a % basis.
    This does not sound like the typical shelf space slotting
    costs used to open new distribution. However if my
    assumption on promo cost growth is wrong, please
    feel free to correct me where appropriate.

    Every retail food product has competition of some sort....
    High end frozen Italian are not sold on the classic "price
    and promo" model. Retail distribution strata and product
    quality levels allow higher end brands to move away from
    the "price wars" that very competitive mass market retail
    brands face everyday.....

    If AMNF is in this very competitive brand environment, then
    its a poor long term investment......

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 9:48 PM Flag


    I contend that promo exps is an inefficient use of FCFs for firms
    like AMNF. Instead, use the FCFs to increase the number of outlets
    carrying AMNF full line of the NW.

    Get 30 NW Costco to carry just the best 2 AMNF frozen products and
    we would all see the AMNF production lines run at least 16 hours per day....!
    With zero promo exp and strong margins .......then watch the funds
    jump on the AMNF stock...!

    What has happened to the AMNF dividend pay out ratio over the
    past several years...? Up or down..?

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 9:38 PM Flag

    promo exp are typically employed for brands which have strong
    market saturation AND in competitive categories.....i.e. Ragu
    sauce or Kellogg cereals......

    IMO AMNF has not reached strong market saturation (plenty of
    outlets to add at full price) and I would think high end frozen Italian
    foods are regional brands with little direct competition........

    I don't see why AMNF would employ promo instead of adding
    distribution exp to add outlets. Adding one full line AMNF outlet
    gives AMNF a large stocking order plus run-rate sales whereas
    promo might increase revenues but not net operating profits.....

    But of course AMNF give no rationale for its promo strategy.

  • Reply to

    Oil will drop until May

    by outofbeer10 Feb 27, 2015 12:18 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Feb 28, 2015 8:42 PM Flag


    Export refined products but not crude directly .......

    Foreign crude E&P firms should not be allowed to export crude either........
    ......crude located in the ground/off-shore USA is a national resource and not
    solely a tool for optimizing profits for a few energy firms.

    If you spend a lot of time at these drilling locations then you should be familiar
    with US crude production in the 1950-60s and crude production pre-2000.

    Possibly too many "me too" financially & technologically weak" E&P firms
    sprout up to exploit "easy periods of crude production....not all of these firms
    are required & SA is proving that point now.

    Export US crude directly today and watch where USA energy sources revert to
    in the next 20 years ...the same place as from 1970 to 2005. But add Russia
    and Iran....!

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