I would say that SBUX has a relatively small % of its locations in malls ......
Malls and SBUX is a bad example ......of the entire growth story for SBUX...!.
POTR & others
So one analyst comes out and say LOCO going to $ 18...!!
And the crowd roars.
This guys knows something no one else does....????
I doubt it.
LOCO to $ 18 ..........by when..?????
Dec 2016...? Maybe by then, barring any further mgmt mistakes..!
I for one, am not drinking the LOCO Kool-Aid at this time because
of ''Gugginhiem the Great''
When the Macy's store post negative comps, then
overtime the real estate their stores sit on is reduced
in value. Then it gets written off the balance sheet..!
Macy's needs to close 30 to 40 stores in 2016.....once
those stores close what will happen to the value of that
I would never compare my retail investments against
KSS or JCP or Macy's ....these are weak businesses...!
BTW only 4 of the 23 retailers I follow are down today....
on a nice up market day. Macy's after its weak price
action is only even so far.........the majority of the market
is telling us Macy's has deep problems.
Oh great....the BBRG BOD has named a 20 year BBRG vet the next CEO.....
He was COO and now he gets to be CEO....more of he same...!
Bad deal for shareholders.
Wouldn't someone from the outside, with no responsibility for the past
mishaps, be a better choice for the new CEO position...????
The now seems like the real problem.
2 last items to ponder .......
TJX operating margins last quarter was 12.3 %
M operating margins was 4.4 %
TJX guidance for 2016 YOY SSS is 4 % to 5 %
Basic stark contrast in operations of 2 large US retailer.
Do I really care what is written on my disposal coffee cup ....??
My hand is usually cover up the design anyway.
Whatis written on the cup never influences my buying decision for coffee.
Only been watching retail stocks since 1980 ........
Macy's SSS margins & guidance are all going down, while inventories and
disc/promos are at high levels. Its all in the Q3 report.
What I mean is that in 2015 it has been clear that consumers will not pay
full price for soft-line/clothing products in the traditional department store
Note that TJX sells more than Macy's now.
Lungren has been very slow to react to the changing behavior of his core
customers, mostly IMO, because he is slow to make changes to his strategic
Macy's is now TRYING to be a discount retailer (cutting prices & customer
services) to the point that Macy's is a poor competitor to a TGT, TJX or
ROST or KSS ........ call Macy's what you want, but their competitiveness
is in the basement. Now the customer is shopping discount retailers for
cloths. Ask Nordstrom's about that, too. Affluent suburban shoppers don't
mind walking into a discount retailer now.
Retail customers care little about retail terminology...they just want great
value for their purchases. The numbers say Macy's is falling behind.
Now in late 2015, Lungren opens 50 Back Stage units to truly compete
with the ROST & TJX that are stealing his customers with better
prices and almost the same merchandise....! IMO its too late
for Macy's to overtake TJX, ROST & RACK for the suburban discount
clothing shopper......even the on-line Macy business is not growing enough
to make up for lost brick & mortar sales.....and margins are suffering.
Lungren needs to close 40 weak Macy's stores and empower someone
who can make quicker strategics decisions and change tactic faster.....
Never long M, but heavy into TJX, ROST & DLTR
Also never short M either.
possibly Macy's stock rebounds from today's rather noticeable drop...
however based upon the Macy stock price action this year and Q3
results and the lowering of guidance by Lungren during the Q3 conference
call..........any rebound will be short lived unless operating performances
improves significantly (a few quarters at least?) or a special event occurs
that lifts M from its current trend line.
IMO Macys has plenty of room to lose more based upon a lousy
Christmas season and a bleak Q1 2016. I just do not see a near or
mid term catalyst for a stock reversal...........
Could Macy's post a surprise positive in Q4, I guess its not impossible
but with only 25 days until Christmas, it looks to me that Macy's cake
as been baked for 2015.
The BBRG CEO took a job as CEO at Bob Evan's effective 12-28-2015.
Interesting that the current CEO at BBRG left his existing CEO job for another
CEO job in another casual dinning restaurant.
Who is going to be the new CEO of BBRG....????
Is this an opportunity for this chain to get a new life and reverse its poor
performance over the past several years....?
BBRG can't get any worse.....
I hope the Board of Directors has someone ready to take the BBRG CEO ASAP.......
Sears, JCP & Macy's are all old line department store retailers in different stages of
Maybe if Lungren had not bought out all of the department stores across the nation
and turned them into generic Macy's....some of those old metro department stores
would still be viable....? Wold they have been able to keep their local brand equity
to sell on..?
Now it looks like Lungren has bundled all of these strong department brand names into
one sinking department store business........and all seem to be dropping together.
Lungren cut out the ''experienced sales help'' concept and killed the customer experience
being a poor discount retailer in department store cloths.
Macy real estate will be worth half its current value in 5 years.
Lungren needs to go very soon. He is too slow.
Lungren needs to close 30 to 40 stores in 2016.......what will that do to the value
of that Macy real estate at those locations...????? Slice off a billion or 2.
If the retail stores stay attractive and maintain their real estate value
Tell us when & at what price you buy Macy stock....at the time you pull the trigger...!
There are plenty of retail stocks to own in 2015 ......
IMO Macy is not one of them.
Mgmt is very slow to act, revenues are failing & guidance
has been taken down hard last month,,,,,,,
Is the ''Back Stage'' idea going to save Lungren..??
I do not think so. Macy's retail plan is broken and more
stock weakness is inevitable when Q4 posts weak results.
The dividend is maybe the only consolation for those who
buy M at current prices. But more revenue loses and EPS
reductions are in the future.
Try TJX ROST WSM AMZN DLTR VFC ULTA as retailers
with much better future prospects in 2016 & beyond.
Lungren does not have the answers & the comp to
beating his brains out...!