Your point is well made ….
I still feel that JACK has delivered the metrics and superior guidance that LOCO investors
are expecting ……and the stock price action confirms the quality execution.
There are 471 Qdoba outlets all over the entire USA…this chain metrics are far superior
to LOCO…and you get a strong hamburger franchise "for free"
If/when I go long LOCO, it will be a paired trade with JACK (same with TJX & ROST)
What happens to LOCO if they post a SHAK or a NDLS quarterly report……?
I don't want to say here at the LOCO investor site.
BTW last week's LOCO price action means nothing to me…short term noise.
Regarding the recent LOCO guidance, the good was the improving margins.
I am not so hyped about the # of 2015 outlet openings or the 2015 revenue growth forecast.
LOCO mgmt better blow away the revenue forecast in 2015.
ZOES, CMG, Qdoba, FRGI & even T Bell …..how many "prime" better middle suburban
locations will be available in 5 years for this group of "non-pizza, non-burger" QSR players" ?
Some analyst said 3G Capital will selloff some of the small or regional KRFT brands in the future.
That same analyst named BGS as one of the possible buyers of the small KRFT brands.
BGS leveraged ratio is still very close to 5 X its EBITDA ….that's high for BGS.
I don't see 3G Capital "giving away" any brands for less than full market value.
If BGS is planning to be a KRFT brand buyer, they will need to get their leverage ratio
much closer to 4 X.
This would occur only with big Q1 & Q2 2015 results from Ortega and Pirate's Booty.
Stay tuned ……..
PF already owns Bird's Eye …….why would they buy another frozen veg firm…?
How about WWAV or HAIN….?
What brands of KRFT will 3G Capital sell off…??
The difference is I was responding to a fellow poster's message….
No one has any idea what you are talking about or why you decided to post
what you did.
Its a free world though, go ahead and post whatever spew you may
choose to hoist upon us……….15 % of us have to put up with your
trash, while the other 85 % simply ignores you.
Sure I will elaborate …..
1. I posted at 10:30 PM on Thursday that you should sell. You now say you made $ 2500
additionally by not selling. So by your statement above, I can tell you own 416 shares
of KRFT. At 10:30 Thursday morning you were "sitting on" $ 9002 of unrealized profits
from the BH news they would buy KRFT with 3G capital on Wednesday morning.
You put $ 9000 of profit at risk on Thursday morning in the hopes of making another
$ 2500 on top of your surprise pop from Wednesday. As time has shown, it worked out
for you this time.
I would not have risked $ 9000 of unrealized profits in a one day 35.6 % pop, to make
another $ 2500 on a subsequent 7.1 % gain in the next day and a half……"long run for a
short slide," if you know what I mean.
How will you do with your KRFT position next week after a nice 43 % pop as of 4 PM Friday..?
I say your chances of losing are greater from current levels, then on Tuesday afternoon.
2. Similar to # 1 above. Your just enjoyed a surprised "pop" of 43 % last week.
Again from current levels, KRFT could drop in value in the future.
I say don't waste your nice gains…! I wouldn't risk your $ 11,500 for another $2K.
Look to find a few new stocks with better future relative valuations and future profits.
(DOW, C, ETN, TY, BEAV, ARMH, JACK, PF to name a few)
Buy low then sell high.
Hope this elaboration clarifies my thought process on your behalf.
JACK vs LOCO …..since the July 2014 IPO date for LOCO….look at the chart.
JACK has the better momentum & earnings metrics than LOCO.
I would bet, based upon SSS and guidance …for the next 3 months, JACK is a better
investment than LOCO.
Look and see for yourself.
Short JACK at your own risk……they just reported strong same store revenue growth and increasing
revenue growth guidance. Qdoba, with its 641 outlets, is the real growth engine inside JACK…..
to me it looks like JACK has the best prospects in the QSR segment .
A "civil war" in Yemen ain't a big deal for Brent. Look at Brent pricing today….
The Saudi King and the US Navy will insure that Yemen is a controlled event.
Other than Liyba no other "civil war" scenario is on the horizon the would curtail
Looks like the new King of Saudi Arabia is not going to sit around and be put into a corner.
He now will play a huge active role in the crazy land of Yemen. Better SA soldiers than
USA land troops. Also SA will require more US weapon systems, so good for US investors
in LMT, NOC, RTN to name a few.
Leave our soldiers at home and buy US weapon systems……best of both worlds for
defense firm investors..!
Egypt will also require additional US weapon systems as they become more active
in Middle east military problems.
If the market drop 15 % as he forecasts, then that would be a reasonable entry point for
additional LMT, LOC & RTN purchases……for long term investors.
Appears to me that Middle East and Asian govts will be more active buyers of state of
the art weapon systems in the years to come.
A 15 % market drop means nothing to these firms…and should mean opportunity
to smart investors.
Everybody knew in mid January 2015 that the Mistral deal
was not going to happen…….as a Fund manager, I don't
see how that provides value added benefit to your investors…..
You know from experience, Pedro, that a successful investor
can not rely on the musings of an IR representative.
But in the spirit of cordiality, I hope that if Meltem does
contract with CVX in the USGOM, and that it will be a valid
sign for future progress for PACD's high spec fleet.
LOCO is a high beta stock…..should not surprise anyone who has watched LOCO stock behavior that
this thing is bouncing around.
Be patient and buy then the stock price is low……..don't blame others of one's need to "do something"
at the wrong time..!
As Howard Marks has said ……
Good investing means buying good investments are great values.
Buying good investments at high prices IMO is bad investing.
Have more an a 2 day time horizon.
I can only make my assumptions from your posts….
You are "annoyed by my indefensible beliefs"……
A) The past did happen & the events of late 2014 prove
what I said in June 2014. Hedge funds have saved the
aero business (cash cow) from Koury & his KLXI joke.
B) The break up will create value for the aero portion of
the business. KLXI is a long term mess spun out of the
strong aero profit machine. BEAV pre June 2014 was
a shell game waiting to be exposed. BEAV in early 2014
was a bad investment.
C) Stock price levels are based almost solely upon FUTURE
earnings potential. Why do you think BEAV and KLXI
differ so much in March 2015…?
I have no way to prove any of the moves you post regarding
your BEAV investment…….everyone on this message board
is a "big long term winner" …….talk is cheap here. I would
have loved to read your posts here in May 2014. Post confirms
of your trades if you want to "advertise" your great BEAV trading
success…!! Your talk regarding your specific BEAV moves
is cheap….don't use it as a defense.
That's an easy question to answer…….
As a private investor for 43 years I have built a large, broadly
diversified portfolio. I spend 1/2 my time looking for new investing
names & 1/2 my time reviewing my existing positions.
I strongly doubt BEAV can accurately be characterized by your
statement as a business with "the phantom of future profits in an
For some odd reason, you seem mad at me for your poor stock
management decisions. I am not your enemy. I am just another
private investor sharing his opinions with this message board.
I hope you sold your KLXI shares when issued to you, but something
tells me you did not & you are feeling the short/long term pain for
BTW I am still out of BEAV, as you say "with no skin in the game"
(what a terrible thing to do!) But since May 2014 It seems to me
that my decisions regarding Koury & BEAV have been better
I will let you know when I decide to buy BEAV shares.
Don't be a sore loser….the BEAV game is not over yet.