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DoubleLine Opportunistic Credit Message Board

jackmaster20 694 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Since the July 2014 LOCO IPO

    by jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 6:36 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 3 hours ago Flag

    B Carter

    Your point is well made ….

    I still feel that JACK has delivered the metrics and superior guidance that LOCO investors
    are expecting ……and the stock price action confirms the quality execution.

    There are 471 Qdoba outlets all over the entire USA…this chain metrics are far superior
    to LOCO…and you get a strong hamburger franchise "for free"

    If/when I go long LOCO, it will be a paired trade with JACK (same with TJX & ROST)

    What happens to LOCO if they post a SHAK or a NDLS quarterly report……?
    I don't want to say here at the LOCO investor site.

    BTW last week's LOCO price action means nothing to me…short term noise.

    Regarding the recent LOCO guidance, the good was the improving margins.
    I am not so hyped about the # of 2015 outlet openings or the 2015 revenue growth forecast.
    LOCO mgmt better blow away the revenue forecast in 2015.

    ZOES, CMG, Qdoba, FRGI & even T Bell …..how many "prime" better middle suburban
    locations will be available in 5 years for this group of "non-pizza, non-burger" QSR players" ?

  • Reply to

    I predict green LOCO tomorrow!

    by indetrucks Mar 26, 2015 3:52 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 4 hours ago Flag

    "Coin flip" mentality…….at best

  • Some analyst said 3G Capital will selloff some of the small or regional KRFT brands in the future.
    That same analyst named BGS as one of the possible buyers of the small KRFT brands.

    BGS leveraged ratio is still very close to 5 X its EBITDA ….that's high for BGS.

    I don't see 3G Capital "giving away" any brands for less than full market value.
    If BGS is planning to be a KRFT brand buyer, they will need to get their leverage ratio
    much closer to 4 X.

    This would occur only with big Q1 & Q2 2015 results from Ortega and Pirate's Booty.

    Stay tuned ……..

  • Reply to

    PF is bidding to buy GREEN GIANT

    by discdriver Mar 12, 2015 3:28 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 4 hours ago Flag

    PF already owns Bird's Eye …….why would they buy another frozen veg firm…?

    How about WWAV or HAIN….?

    What brands of KRFT will 3G Capital sell off…??

  • Reply to

    Own any Kraft ?

    by stormfront2020 Mar 25, 2015 8:22 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 4 hours ago Flag

    The difference is I was responding to a fellow poster's message….

    No one has any idea what you are talking about or why you decided to post
    what you did.

    Its a free world though, go ahead and post whatever spew you may
    choose to hoist upon us……….15 % of us have to put up with your
    trash, while the other 85 % simply ignores you.

  • Reply to

    Own any Kraft ?

    by stormfront2020 Mar 25, 2015 8:22 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 4 hours ago Flag

    Storm

    Sure I will elaborate …..

    1. I posted at 10:30 PM on Thursday that you should sell. You now say you made $ 2500
    additionally by not selling. So by your statement above, I can tell you own 416 shares
    of KRFT. At 10:30 Thursday morning you were "sitting on" $ 9002 of unrealized profits
    from the BH news they would buy KRFT with 3G capital on Wednesday morning.

    You put $ 9000 of profit at risk on Thursday morning in the hopes of making another
    $ 2500 on top of your surprise pop from Wednesday. As time has shown, it worked out
    for you this time.

    I would not have risked $ 9000 of unrealized profits in a one day 35.6 % pop, to make
    another $ 2500 on a subsequent 7.1 % gain in the next day and a half……"long run for a
    short slide," if you know what I mean.

    How will you do with your KRFT position next week after a nice 43 % pop as of 4 PM Friday..?
    I say your chances of losing are greater from current levels, then on Tuesday afternoon.

    2. Similar to # 1 above. Your just enjoyed a surprised "pop" of 43 % last week.
    Again from current levels, KRFT could drop in value in the future.
    I say don't waste your nice gains…! I wouldn't risk your $ 11,500 for another $2K.
    Look to find a few new stocks with better future relative valuations and future profits.
    (DOW, C, ETN, TY, BEAV, ARMH, JACK, PF to name a few)
    Buy low then sell high.

    Hope this elaboration clarifies my thought process on your behalf.

  • jackmaster20 by jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    JACK vs LOCO …..since the July 2014 IPO date for LOCO….look at the chart.

    JACK has the better momentum & earnings metrics than LOCO.

    I would bet, based upon SSS and guidance …for the next 3 months, JACK is a better
    investment than LOCO.

    Look and see for yourself.

  • Reply to

    Is it time to short?

    by vijay5312002 Mar 13, 2015 2:08 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    Short JACK at your own risk……they just reported strong same store revenue growth and increasing
    revenue growth guidance. Qdoba, with its 641 outlets, is the real growth engine inside JACK…..

    to me it looks like JACK has the best prospects in the QSR segment .

  • jackmaster20 by jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    When does SDRL decide to take NADL private………at $ 1.00…??

  • Reply to

    NADL moving UP to $2.50+!

    by yanshengc Mar 26, 2015 8:53 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    A "civil war" in Yemen ain't a big deal for Brent. Look at Brent pricing today….
    The Saudi King and the US Navy will insure that Yemen is a controlled event.

    Other than Liyba no other "civil war" scenario is on the horizon the would curtail
    Brent production.

  • Reply to

    Ill share this with you

    by peixmole Mar 2, 2015 10:03 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    who cares on the RTN message board..?

  • Reply to

    Jordan requests

    by planet_raytheon Feb 7, 2015 3:11 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    Looks like the new King of Saudi Arabia is not going to sit around and be put into a corner.

    He now will play a huge active role in the crazy land of Yemen. Better SA soldiers than
    USA land troops. Also SA will require more US weapon systems, so good for US investors
    in LMT, NOC, RTN to name a few.

    Leave our soldiers at home and buy US weapon systems……best of both worlds for
    defense firm investors..!

    Egypt will also require additional US weapon systems as they become more active
    in Middle east military problems.

  • Reply to

    TIMMMMMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRR

    by stocks2cheap Mar 24, 2015 12:02 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    clueless

  • Reply to

    Market will drop 15%

    by stocks2cheap Mar 24, 2015 2:36 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    If the market drop 15 % as he forecasts, then that would be a reasonable entry point for
    additional LMT, LOC & RTN purchases……for long term investors.

    Appears to me that Middle East and Asian govts will be more active buyers of state of
    the art weapon systems in the years to come.

    A 15 % market drop means nothing to these firms…and should mean opportunity
    to smart investors.

  • Reply to

    Own any Kraft ?

    by stormfront2020 Mar 25, 2015 8:22 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    Looks like you should have shorted Wed…instead of next week as you state above…...

  • jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Everybody knew in mid January 2015 that the Mistral deal
    was not going to happen…….as a Fund manager, I don't
    see how that provides value added benefit to your investors…..

    You know from experience, Pedro, that a successful investor
    can not rely on the musings of an IR representative.

    But in the spirit of cordiality, I hope that if Meltem does
    contract with CVX in the USGOM, and that it will be a valid
    sign for future progress for PACD's high spec fleet.

  • Reply to

    burned again

    by kennyjcal Mar 27, 2015 12:37 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    LOCO is a high beta stock…..should not surprise anyone who has watched LOCO stock behavior that
    this thing is bouncing around.

    Be patient and buy then the stock price is low……..don't blame others of one's need to "do something"
    at the wrong time..!

  • Reply to

    buy at the close

    by hft_lover Mar 25, 2015 12:42 PM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    As Howard Marks has said ……

    Good investing means buying good investments are great values.

    Buying good investments at high prices IMO is bad investing.
    Have more an a 2 day time horizon.

  • Reply to

    BARV and KLXI so far

    by bellbell63 Feb 14, 2015 10:40 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    M#1

    I can only make my assumptions from your posts….

    You are "annoyed by my indefensible beliefs"……
    A) The past did happen & the events of late 2014 prove
    what I said in June 2014. Hedge funds have saved the
    aero business (cash cow) from Koury & his KLXI joke.
    B) The break up will create value for the aero portion of
    the business. KLXI is a long term mess spun out of the
    strong aero profit machine. BEAV pre June 2014 was
    a shell game waiting to be exposed. BEAV in early 2014
    was a bad investment.
    C) Stock price levels are based almost solely upon FUTURE
    earnings potential. Why do you think BEAV and KLXI
    differ so much in March 2015…?

    I have no way to prove any of the moves you post regarding
    your BEAV investment…….everyone on this message board
    is a "big long term winner" …….talk is cheap here. I would
    have loved to read your posts here in May 2014. Post confirms
    of your trades if you want to "advertise" your great BEAV trading
    success…!! Your talk regarding your specific BEAV moves
    is cheap….don't use it as a defense.

  • Reply to

    BARV and KLXI so far

    by bellbell63 Feb 14, 2015 10:40 AM
    jackmaster20 jackmaster20 Mar 27, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    M#1

    That's an easy question to answer…….

    As a private investor for 43 years I have built a large, broadly
    diversified portfolio. I spend 1/2 my time looking for new investing
    names & 1/2 my time reviewing my existing positions.

    I strongly doubt BEAV can accurately be characterized by your
    statement as a business with "the phantom of future profits in an
    uncertain market"

    For some odd reason, you seem mad at me for your poor stock
    management decisions. I am not your enemy. I am just another
    private investor sharing his opinions with this message board.

    I hope you sold your KLXI shares when issued to you, but something
    tells me you did not & you are feeling the short/long term pain for
    your decision….

    BTW I am still out of BEAV, as you say "with no skin in the game"
    (what a terrible thing to do!) But since May 2014 It seems to me
    that my decisions regarding Koury & BEAV have been better
    than yours.

    I will let you know when I decide to buy BEAV shares.

    Don't be a sore loser….the BEAV game is not over yet.

DBL
24.78+0.14(+0.57%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT