As soon as you rolling out TC will be taken over 3-5 dollars a share or copper shoot back up to 3.
Years ago i were in the situation you describes minus the stooges. The situation seem hopeless but we never gave up. We use anything to capture rain when it happen. We know that we can survive without food for a long time but without water we will be dead Really quick. We got rescued on day 6. Cash is TC water, it will allow TC to survive until mr copper come for the rescue. My hope is TC management conserve cash like we were conserving water on that raft.
TC is making money even with moly and copper slump. It is the interest payment that wipe out TC profit. TC management showed that they understand this Through the bond repuchased . With cash at hand, moly inventory and increase productivity TC will get over the hard time and come out stronger.
He said cash neutral for 2015 but if you look closely. Langeloth +15M, moly inventory + 25M, gold(1300) + 12M, and if copper come back to (3) + 40M. In total 92M for 2015, and if you add 266M (2014) TC will end 2015 with 358M. Management will look real good if TC can pay off the 2017 note early.
If ultra is right about copper I will start my house shopping soon
You are correct, TC is down because the dead of moly and copper slump. If copper stay low TC may not generate enough cash to be able to fulfill its debt obligation back to back. Dead money if copper stay low, 100% gain if copper turn in the next 12 months. A buy out is very likely too, assets three time debt, profitable, cash near mkt.
Moly inventory will add 25m and gold 15m(1300) and cooper 40m(3) and fuel saving 5m total 85 m . 266m plus 85 m equal 352 m cash end of 2015. Gold seem to be ok at the moment, copper need to turn.
Your question explain why TC is parking at 1.25. 85M interest payments are crushing TC profit and with moly and copper slump TC is in survival mode. However, TC has about 266 M cash and some moly inventory going into 2015, if copper turn around TC may be able to get rid of the 2017 notes early and that will bring pps to around 3. My 12 month forecast for TC is between dead money to 100% gain at this level.
1. I think ultra said that copper and moly will rise, but not to the point that tc can make enough cash to carry out any sizable bond buy back without encounter problem with restriction attached to the 2017 notes.
2. I think ultra also pointed out that the market viewed TC badly in part because of the back to back hefty debt load obligation in the future. Therefore, TC best course of action is to save enough cash to get rid of the 2017 note in 2015 and have some buffer time between its debt obligation.
Arnold was right on the bond repurchased and ultra was right about TC limitation. Must be a reason for the buy back amount stop at 33m instead of 50m or 90m. Personally, I think Perron is doing what both Arnold and ultra had suggested, TC will buy back bonds and save cash to take care of the 2017 notes early. If my math is correct, end of year 2014 cash is 300m - 33m(bond repurchased)= 267m. 267m + 65m(2015) + 25 moly inventory = 357m end of 2015.
five years ago mm is not complete and they paid a lot higher for tc shares. Today mm is making money and tc at rock bottom price. Five years from now when all the debt and interest payment go away TC will be at least in the teen and that give you around 1000% upside potential.