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Pizza Inn Holdings, Inc. Message Board

jaclarkus 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 1:46 PM Member since: Dec 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Next Quarter ?

    by t_mann09 Dec 17, 2014 7:16 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Dec 18, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    should be around Feb. 12. My predictions for the Q sales are:
    Food and Supply sales ----7.65M
    Franchise Royalties-----1.06M
    Restaurant Sales ---3.0M
    Total Sales------11.71M
    which would be a 13.6% gain over last year's 10.3M
    Last Q I was high, predicting 11.8 actual came in 11.3. Hope I'm low this time.
    I'm sure bottom line will still show a loss. Need cash flow from operations to at least break even.

  • Went to the Kansas City store on Westport on Sunday evening. Guy told me it was doing good but not as well as the other two stores in Overland Park and Lenexa but they have been open more than a year. They were hoping to beat the Wichita store's "record" of $8,000 on opening day but did not make it. Went to Topeka store (which opened Friday) last night at about 5:30 it was packed with a line to the door. Didn't stay, came back at 8:00. Ticket # was 354. I asked the guy "if they beat the Wichita store record" he said they missed by $700. He obviously knew what I was asking even though I didn't mention a number. But he thought the total for the weekend might have beaten Wichita. I know I have said this before bu, if all franchisees will run their stores like the Goebel's in Kansas City, Topeka area and the Steven's in Wichita, P5 will be very successful.

  • Reply to

    new stores- when are they opening

    by noahtheboatbuilder Dec 5, 2014 1:47 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Dec 5, 2014 9:34 PM Flag

    Topeka opens on the 12th.

  • Reply to

    Wichita store on Maize Road

    by jaclarkus Nov 18, 2014 9:46 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 21, 2014 4:42 PM Flag

    They are not required to breakout expenses. Only a $ amount of any expenses associated with the cost of the sale. Called "cost of goods" or "cost of sales." Anyone with any business knowledge can get really close to breaking down expenses. If you know what a certain area rents for per square foot, if you know approximately how many man hours of labor required, etc. I really don't care to argue with someone on a message board about it. The bottom line is PZZI's operating margin went from 5% a year ago to 12% this past quarter. Chipotle's operating margin was 7.5% in 2006. this year it is between 16-17%. I believe P5 will get there. Do I wish it were faster? heck yes.

  • Reply to

    Wichita store on Maize Road

    by jaclarkus Nov 18, 2014 9:46 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 21, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    you can find it in the 10-Q. Last year Quarter 1.658M in P5 company owned store sales. Operating income $81,000 that's 5%. Also you can find Chipotle margins in SEC filings. Chipotle founded in 1993. In 2004 they lost money. Facts!!

  • Reply to

    Wichita store on Maize Road

    by jaclarkus Nov 18, 2014 9:46 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 20, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    and a year ago they were 5%.

  • Ate at the Wichita store on Maize Road (the most recently opened) last night at 7:00. I was ticket #192. So at least 200 tickets for the day (three hours left). Average a minimum of $10 per ticket (maybe has high as $12-$13 average). So $2,000-$2,500/day or a minimum of $14,000/wk could be as high as $17,000/wk. 728,000/yr minimum to maybe $900,000. Fixed costs of Rent, Manager salary, utilities, property and payroll
    taxes, insurance, and labor comes to about $400,000. I could break that out for you like $22 per square ft of 2,200 square ft of space =$48,400 round to $50,000/yr rent, etc. But I will save time. Variable food cost but from last quarter avg ran a little over 29% of sales, round to 30% means food cost of 220,000 to 270,000. Earnings before Interest, income taxes and depreciation = $100,000 to as much as $230,000 for the franchisee. PZZI income would 6% of sales or about $50,000 plus or minus and food sales which a chunk of would be their own costs of food + delivery and warehousing expenses .My best guess is a franchise store would net PZZI about $150,000 to $180,000. While a company owned store would net $200-230,000 with the same amount of sales.

  • jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    the part that makes it harder to compare are the 2 franchise stores in Utah that were closed with one of those being what would have been a comparable store the other was opened later. The only real true comparables would be the 11 company owned stores that were opened as of June 2013 and maybe 1 franchise store in Kansas City area I believe.

  • jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    from what i read it was 11

  • Reply to

    Hot PZZI, always love HOT PZZI

    by networthdev Nov 12, 2014 1:25 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Based on what metric should it be $11.50 to $12?

  • Reply to

    shelf shares

    by jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 1:17 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Called investor relations, talked to the comptroller, said she has been on the job 3 weeks, is going to contact the former comptroller who would have more information about the shelf registrations and will call me back tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    shelf shares

    by jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 1:17 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    So this shelf of a total of $8 M looks like its filled finished and over with. In 2014 was a $10 M shelf that should be available. I would like to contact the company and ask them about the difference between whats on the cash flow statement says and what is stated on the 10-K's This is the whole statement.
    "On May 20, 2013, the Company entered into an At-the-Market Issuance Sales Agreement with MLV & Co. LLC (“MLV”) pursuant to which the Company could offer and sell shares of its common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $3,000,000 from time to time through MLV, acting as agent (the “2013 ATM Offering”). The 2013 ATM Offering was undertaken pursuant to Rule 415 and a shelf Registration Statement on Form S-3 which was declared effective by the SEC on May 13, 2013. On November 20, 2013, the Company and MLV amended the At-the-Market Issuance Sales Agreement and the SEC declared effective a new shelf Registration Statement on Form S-3 to increase the 2013 ATM Offering by $5,000,000. Through September 28, 2014, the Company had sold an aggregate of 1,257,609 shares in the 2013 ATM Offering, realizing aggregate net proceeds of $8.0 million"

  • jaclarkus by jaclarkus Nov 12, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    from 10-K. "Through September 28, 2014, the Company had sold an aggregate of 1,257,609 shares in the 2013 ATM Offering, realizing aggregate net proceeds of $8.0 million".

    Only thing I am having trouble understanding;
    this is from 10-K on Sept 23. "Through June 29, 2014, the Company had sold an aggregate of 1,060,949 shares in the ATM Offering, realizing aggregate net proceeds of $5.6 million".

    That's 196,660 difference in shares and $2.4M difference in $$$. $2.4M divided by 196,660 = $12.20/share
    That can't be right!!

    From the cash flow statement:
    CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES:

    Proceeds from sale of stock
    1,196
    That basically $1.2M not $2.4M
    What am I missing??

  • This is the actual sales vs. my projection for quarter ended Sept. 28.
    These are actual
    Food and Supply----7.468M
    Franchise &Royalties--1.018M
    Restaurant Sales--2.820M

    Posted this in Oct. re-posted on Monday
    my projection is for 11.8M. About an 8% increase qtr over qtr. and 11% year over year. Breaking it out like this:
    Food and Supply Sales---7.9 M
    Franchise & Royalties----1.0M
    Restaurant Sales---------2.9M

    So I was high on Food & Supply sales, which could be a good thing for franchisees. Meaning that franchisees have a little better gross margin from having a lower cost of sales (food & supply costs).
    All in all feel good about understanding & projecting PZZI and P5 growth.

  • Reply to

    CFO bought at $8, expect good news from earnings

    by robunn Nov 7, 2014 9:46 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Nov 10, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Goebel currently has 3 locations. One in Lenexa, Ks. one in Overland Park, Ks. and one opened Friday in Ks. City Mo. The Wichita locations are owned by a guy named Steven. Wichita has 2 with a 3rd opening up in December. Goebel is opening his 4th in Topeka in December. He is looking for the right location in Lawrence (home of the University of Kansas). BTW my brother went to the Maize Road location in Wichita, the most recent opening. He said he got there at 12:45 p.m. and counted 26 people in line. Took 25 minutes to get his pizza and he stayed for a total of an hour. The line stayed the same the entire time he was there. Earnings for July-Sept. quarter should be out this week. I posted about 5-6 weeks ago looking for the following sales #'s:

    my projection is for 11.8M. About an 8% increase qtr over qtr. and 11% year over year. Breaking it out like this:
    Food and Supply Sales---7.9 M
    Franchise & Royalties----1.0M
    Restaurant Sales---------2.9M
    With no new company owned stores opened in the qtr. only increase can come from same store sales gains of which I project 7-8%.
    Although the franchise store count increased from 7 to 11 during the quarter 3 of the 4 did not open until mid to very late Sept. therefore the Food and Supply sales increase will be minimal.

  • My son was invited to and went to the pre-opening held last night. He said the location is very good with both access to area foot traffic and drive up to corner location. Area used to less desirable but over the last few years has become a prime area. Crowd was very good last night. Goebel and his sons were there. If all franchisees were as good P5 would be rockin'.

  • The very simple answer to that is when they start increasing sales. Here are comparisons to other publicly traded restaurant stocks. I will start with other pizza companies then add some fast casual restaurants and then some more mature like MCD and WEN.

    Company price to sales # of stores Market cap
    Domino's 2.46 11,250 4.6B
    Papa Johns 1.16 4428 1.7B
    Papa Murphy's 1.74 1400 159M
    YUM 2.18 40,000 29B
    Panera 1.80 1,800 4.5B
    Buffalo Wild Wings 1.73 1,030 2.5B
    Chipotle 5.54 1,681 20B
    El Pollo Loco 3.82 400 1.2B
    Noodles 1.75 410 644M
    Fiesta(Taco Cabana) 2.31 310 1.3B
    Red Robin 0.68 500 732M
    Darden(Olive Garden) 1.01 1,500 6.4B
    McDonald's 3.14 35,429 88B

    PZZI 1.62 273 68M

    The average price per sales Excluding Chipotle (You can't compare ANYTHING to Chipotle right now)
    is 1.98. So PZZI is in right in the ball park with other restaurant stocks right now. Give PZZI 43M in sales X 1.98 = 85m market cap gives us $9.12/share. But you can't give a bigger price to sales until they actually start growing sales. PZZI has been stuck at 40M for 3 years. Revenue Growth is the ONLY thing that is gonna move this stock. You can hope and wish and dream, but until there are actual stores open and making sales gains PZZI is not going anywhere.

  • Reply to

    To all you thick headed dopes

    by den56kk Oct 8, 2014 2:44 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Oct 8, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    Now do the $$$$ math and tell me how that translates to sales to PZZI and then what THAT translates into stock price.

  • Reply to

    Daytona store

    by freetoquestionu Oct 7, 2014 9:48 AM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Oct 7, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    didn't say what time of day it was. makes some difference

  • Reply to

    Sounds like business is pretty good

    by robunn Oct 6, 2014 7:54 PM
    jaclarkus jaclarkus Oct 7, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    sounds like Wichita

PZZI
7.00-0.03(-0.36%)Dec 26 3:59 PMEST

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