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Volcano Corporation (VOLC) Message Board

jacosa 124 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 1:05 AM Member since: Jan 24, 2000
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  • Reply to

    This stock is ready to test upper trading range

    by bonkenx Sep 29, 2014 11:16 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 1, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    And now it's in the middle of the proposed range. On broad market weakness, to be sure, but basically on nothing.

  • Reply to

    I think Gelfond will have to take this back

    by ritzkrakow5 Sep 30, 2014 9:17 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 1, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    The underlying reality is that small-format theaters as they've been in the multiplex era are doomed, as doomed as the movie palaces that they replaced. Streaming media are attacking from one side; IMAX-a-likes are attacking from the other, and the way out is narrow. This may have been a premature move, but there will be as many more as it takes.

  • Reply to

    Trading range?

    by jacosa Sep 24, 2014 12:05 PM
    jacosa jacosa Sep 30, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    Comparing against ITMN, which just closed: management there insisted on a deal structure that permitted, but did not encourage, a competing bid. There were 4 interested parties, but no second bid came (tea leaves suggest that the possibility was kicked around). If you made an $80 tender offer for Incyte, it's quite possible that there would be enough sellers for the company to go, but management would emphatically not agree to anything that shut off a possible second bid. Somebody would probably have enough faith in the pipeline to top you, and there you are, without the prize and with a possibly-super pipeline in a competitor's hands (or topping the second bid yourself, and paying $billions more than you had planned). Intermune only had one pipeline candidate. And I think the soonest that minefield is likely to be cleared is about a year from now, when Lilly has to tip their hand on Baricitinib. Even then, the solid tumors program could be a large unknown, and non-RA inflammatory indications for JAK 1 drugs could be looming. Remember that Incyte has some extremely clever finance people; this "dynamic defence" against a takeover might be planned.

  • Reply to

    This stock is ready to test upper trading range

    by bonkenx Sep 29, 2014 11:16 AM
    jacosa jacosa Sep 29, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Or if you believe that it really is a trading range, don't watch. That's the thing about trading ranges--enough pros are looking to cull a bit at the upper end or add a bit at the lower one to keep the range from turning into a trend unless "something happens."

    In the present case, something small is happening: Intermune has disappeared from the transitional biomed basket (cash hitting accounts soon, probably this week), and funds will be reallocated among the survivors. But a decent number of institutions (and me, too) will be adding tastes of new companies to their mix, which dilutes the already modest effect (I don't have enough conviction to name any)

    Yes, Christmas to Presidents Day is a good season for this subsector, but the next two months are silly season (tax and window dressing trading).

VOLC
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