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Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

jacosa 134 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 12, 2014 11:36 PM Member since: Jan 24, 2000
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  • There just seem to have been so many "those things don't happen" negatives. Starting with actual felony charges against Harkonen for a boasting press release. Then the IQWiG report that violated the law authorizing it. The $60MM quarterly sales in Germany alone whisper number and now the huge reaction to a basically un-sourced tweet. Am I losing it?

  • Reply to

    15% drop at open with no news?

    by wolfmanran Jan 31, 2014 9:49 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 31, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    I'm not saying that this is the cause, but Boehringer Ingleheim has some studies that could be reporting (or leaking) results at any time. For obvious reasons, I consider Intermune unlikely to be leaky, and likely to make a public announcement very fast if there was a leak.

  • Reply to

    Can we close at HOD

    by maddison3 Jan 30, 2014 2:54 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 30, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    I'll guess that Geron is trying to repeat the coup that kept Incyte afloat: dilutive financing big enough to get drug to market in a pinch, permitting much more favorable partnership deal than would have been possible otherwise. I have my doubts about it being enough to get the drug to market though.

  • Reply to

    Why so cheap ?

    by harus Jan 29, 2014 10:54 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 30, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Stock is cheap because management 1) Has stumbled repeatedly in recent past and 2) Shows hostility to owners. Give Class A holders one elected non-voting board member and a small dividend and watch it soar.

  • Reply to

    Buyout vs. Goint it Alone

    by mrdtino Jan 29, 2014 12:19 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 29, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    I suspect that for him it's like the fantasy classic "Riverworld." He just dies and is reincarnated somewhere else.

  • jacosa jacosa Jan 29, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    What I'm concerned about now is that most of the good news expected near-term isn't very compelling. PaCa trials started? Hey, it's a START. Success vs PV? Was there any doubt? But how many patients will go for an expensive drug that needs monitoring? Results vs RA? "Many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip" (regulators are holding out for clear improvements vs RA, and the full set of trials has time to run). Starts with the "pure" JAK1 drugs? Again, starts. The non-JAK drugs have some events coming up too, but they don't really figure in the story the institutions are listening to now.

    But June expiration day? My standard seasonality has that pretty near the bottom. Also, in this congressional election year, problems with the health care system will be top stories, and an expensive drug marketed as a palliative may become a target. I don't like the chances for $89.

  • Reply to

    Novartis 4th qtr Jakavi

    by maddison3 Jan 29, 2014 8:45 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 29, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Not bad for a first year without UK or ES (or IT? I think we'd have heard if they were on board). I'm starting to get antsy about N.I.C.E. Anyone have information about the appeal?

  • Reply to

    $83 target!!!!!!!!!!

    by drivingmustangs Jan 24, 2014 11:03 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 25, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    "they are now incorporating US sales of Jakafi in breast and non-small lung cancer into their model"

    Seriously, WE might look at such possibilities, but a responsible financial institution putting a cash value on them? Reminds me of Bernard Baruch (or was it Joe Kennedy?) getting stock tips from his shoe shine boy in early 1929. Something is out of joint.

  • Reply to

    NEW MOTLEY FOOL ARTICLE ...???

    by wiszad Jan 25, 2014 10:25 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 25, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    I really have been thinking a lot about GERN and IM. First, of course, it that IM can't be a marketed drug before 2018, and is probably only about 1 in 3 to be approved at all (side effects problems). There also appears to be a resistance mechanism, and I, at least, don't know what it is. If you compare IM to the hormone antagonists used to treat breast and prostate cancer, baseline expectation is about 2 years of effectiveness. Not bad at all, but not the miracle partisans seem to think they see. (Note that the logic here doesn't apply against Jakafi, which does not kill or suspend cell cycling of the abnormal cells. If I HAD to come up with a parallel, I might choose anti-organ-rejection drugs) The company MUST be sold; there is no possibility of getting to market with money on hand plus any kind of routine financing. Too much infrastructure has been pruned for a buyer to see value away from the IM I.P. estate. That isn't an environment conducive to a high-priced sale. So no: Geron isn't the one to own.

  • Reply to

    Write downs?

    by bobpete548 Jan 22, 2014 11:10 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 23, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Internet payday lending is balance sheet negative for EZ due to the GoCash purchase terms. It may be nominal earnings positive--the wonders of accounting.

    But basically, bank fees are the most predatory practice in sight, with fully-secured loans (pension and insurance advances, call money, etc.) from major financials not far behind

  • Reply to

    Write downs?

    by bobpete548 Jan 22, 2014 11:10 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 23, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Pawn lending isn't predatory. The first payday loan isn't predatory, and I don't think a single rollover is either. EZ, like the rest of the big operators, has already been beaten into submission to stop endless rollovers. There's plenty of predatory lending going on, but scary as attacks on it may sound, actual regulation and / or enforcement will fall a lot heavier on "more respectable" financial institutions. Probably so much heavier that EZ would benefit.

    Do we have a spokesman of Dan Tolinson's caliber anymore?

  • Reply to

    Geron and Incyte shootout

    by lws2000 Jan 21, 2014 11:41 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 21, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    No, the mechanisms are too completely unrelated. In the far future, an anti-telomerase drug and a JAK inhibitor drug might be alternative approaches considered comparably, with the one not chosen first as a backup.

  • Or at least manufacturing stopped. Still a beautiful technology with a lot of promise, but there just doesn't seem to be a way to make money with it. I'd like to see what the stand-alone camera companies can do with the technology. There ought to be some way to give designers a chance to play with it assuring their employers that the outcome won't be something they have to pay a lot to Tessera to use. I admit it: the possibilities of fly-eye cameras (many images electronically combined) fascinate me.

  • Reply to

    More JPM conference

    by jacosa Jan 15, 2014 7:57 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jan 16, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Imetelstat is not a good fit with Incyte's research program (Which focuses on communication molecules rather than the enzymes that actually do things). I don't expect that particular combination.

    I'm happily surprised to see iconoclasticist sounding civilized.

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