No, I meant $40. Stuff happens, sometimes pretty drastic stuff. Going below $60 in the short run wouldn't even be especially surprising.
I put the bonds stuff together mostly from Yesterday's Krugman blog on interest rates and today's Cashin's Comments (with some other stuff from news stories).
Remember: interest rate is expected "average" inflation over the term of the loan + risk premium + "sweetener" to get the money out of the mattress. For US 10 year treasuries, the risk premium is zero and the sweetener is only a few basis points. So 2 years of the legislature actually SEEKING deflation (which tends to be persistent once created, although the inadequate capital investment of the past few years might make it easier to break deflation than is usual) could be A Big Deal for 3-10 year bond prices. At least, a responsible money manager has to think about that.
No idea, although anything under $40 would be pretty amazing. Conference presentation next Monday, so any fundamental news ought to come out soon.
Market as a whole seems to be rebalancing away from stocks (especially highly-appreciated ones like INCY) toward bonds. Cutting through the gobbledygook about bonds, some extremely gimlet-eyed fellows are looking at Europe and figuring that an austerity push in the US might throw us into deflation too, which would drive bond prices higher. "They didn't start the fire," but I can see a case for them to bet money that way.
Falling oil price in itself is like a negative sales tax, but a remarkable amount of wealth is being destroyed at the same time. The wealth destruction hits immediately. A better economist than I will have to analyze how much and on what time scale the negative tax will have an effect.
I honestly think that Bari will turn out to be therapeutically equivalent to an anti-TNF. It blocks the same pathway. That [with its magnificent safety read to date] makes it approvable. If the trials bear that out, Lilly would surely go ahead. Say, approval target date mid-2016 "Things. Take. Time.")
Issue to keep in mind regarding valuation of businesses that may come to exist in the future: these are effectively options, and small changes in the "risk-free interest rate" can have a significant effect on the fair value of options. Wouldn't It Be Nice If [WIBNI] the likelihood of success of some of these possible future businesses was clarified before interest rates start upward (in other words, if we get a read on clinical significance of cancer inflammation, usefulness of adding IDO inhibition to PD-1 inhibition and yeah, Bari, before Autumn). I also hope to hear something that translates into a read on the eye signal from JAK 1 drugs in the next CC..
I do that kind of trip frequently. It's about 30 road hours, which is at least 4 meals; you may want to do a motel sometime. I had a car throw a rod once along the way--don't even ask (other annoying far-from home car problems have included starter, alternator, muffler and gasket). Driving trips have their place, but so does air.
Happy New Year. For all of us, I hope that the next year is better than last year.
I'll be looking gradually at new possible investments, but the essential fact is that I'm over-extended right now. Obviously, you know that I have a fat position in Incyte. I have a bigger-than-usual (for me) secondary position in Myriad (huge short interest there by too-smart-for-their-own-good money has been bleeding for what, 3 years? They have to cover some time). I jumped on a package of airline stocks during the ebola scare and I'm inclined to keep them until crude oil prices start to rise. That last bet is going well, but it is essentially my reserve purchasing power. So all my eggs are in a few closely-watched baskets.