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Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

jacosa 125 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 52 minutes ago Member since: Jan 24, 2000
  • Reply to

    sNDA was submitted in June

    by jacosa 4 hours ago
    jacosa jacosa 2 hours 52 minutes ago Flag

    Where did you come up with that one? Oh wait--you're one of those Geron noisemakers.

  • Anyone notice that part amid the noise?

  • Small but meaningful adjustment: the control arm did 6-fold better than in RESPONSE. We don't have a "normal."

  • Reply to

    in regards to ceo comments

    by tjnelis Jul 21, 2014 12:08 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 21, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    I saw 2 faults with Dr Paul as CEO. The larger one was that he was a poor public face for the company. Given that HH's biggest job was to be a good public face, it isn't fair to slam him for some happy talk that everyone else has long forgotten. (The other fault I saw was that he was in love with the IDO inhibitor to the exclusion of the rest of the pipeline)

    I have a bone to pick (preferably their C2 or C3) with the consultants who have made stock such a large part of executive compensation, but basically, you're going to see only sales, never purchases, from insiders of companies following that course.

  • Reply to

    Good and Bad

    by stonecoldfish Jul 18, 2014 4:46 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 20, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    I'll assume that you are more concerned with the Class B [voting] shares. And Mr Cohen owns all of them, personally. Madison is another company which Mr Cohen controls, and it USED TO have a contract to provide business advice to EXCorp in return for an annual fee. The governing documents of the corporation dictate that both classes of stock must receive the same dividends and must share equally in proceeds from liquidation of the company.

    Over time, the management advisory fee became quite large and there were rumblings that it was effectively an improper dividend. Meanwhile, several actions that should have been subjects of advice from Madison went badly, leading to questions about whether the degree of reliance placed on that advice met a "prudent man" standard. Remember that while the board is selected by Mr Cohen, they have a fiduciary responsibility to all owners of the company.

  • Reply to

    Good and Bad

    by stonecoldfish Jul 18, 2014 4:46 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 18, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    Looking backward, Mr, Rothamel can be taken as representing the "We are fundamentally retailers" approach to the pawn business, and not necessarily being comfortable with the other consumer finance businesses. Compare the tone under Mr Rotunda: embracing consumer finance and responding aggressively to attacks on the pricing structure. I'd expect the future to include fewer un-pawnshop-looking stores in nice neighborhoods.

  • Reply to

    Jakafi 2nd quarter sales estimate

    by maddison3 Jul 16, 2014 5:22 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 18, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    You talk as if off label sales were a bad thing. They're sales for money, and in some ways they're even better than on-label because people either had to pay their own money or to negotiate with insurance companies.

  • Reply to

    jacosa

    by tjnelis Jul 16, 2014 5:17 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 17, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    That would make sense except for 2 things: the first is that drug sales are structurally backloaded (doughnut hole reduces Q1 sales, while health expense accounts boost Q4); the second is that Incyte is known to lowball forecasts whenever they think they can get away with it (that was half of what got them into trouble 2 years ago). How about some read on market conditions (construed as broadly as you like)?

    I have a market condition that affects sales--every potential prescriber has now been detailed on dose titration, and it is straightforward to do as long as you're using other peoples' experience to guide you.

  • Reply to

    jacosa

    by tjnelis Jul 16, 2014 5:17 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 17, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    All I'm really saying is don't call me out. Fight with that other guy who makes price predictions (or go away). You've predicted all 40 of the stock's last 3 down moves, often with abundant market entrails showing.

    I'll give Good TJ an opening: you've estimated below-consensus sales of Jakafi in the recent Q. Why?

  • Reply to

    jacosa

    by tjnelis Jul 16, 2014 5:17 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 16, 2014 10:22 PM Flag

    Still p*ssed about having missed that obvious double bottom (one of the easiest to spot and most popular technical formations) while you were braying about a damn-near-invisible death cross (and having ignored the equally irrelevant golden cross that preceded it)? I don't haruspicate, but I poke fun at those who do.

    The biggest issue here is that Incyte is above $10; it looks like it will stay above 10; the options tableau shows that nobody is willing to put money on it going below $20, much less 10, and there you are with your drawers up a flagpole.

    You can always bray "See, I was right" when the stock goes down because you are always predicting that the stock will go down.

    Wall Street's grown-ups have mostly been on vacation the last 2 weeks, making for a brittle market. Remarks by the FRB chair[wo]man focused the free-floating anxiety about an "everything bubble" on the med-related sector, and this is what happens. Next week, some adults return to their desks and markets should be less brittle.

    There's some value in the posts of "good TJ."

  • Reply to

    Where is everyone??

    by ajdoha234 Jul 14, 2014 1:08 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 16, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    I'm glad it makes sense; I learned this stuff by the seat of my pants. I'm not saying a year for a takeover, I'm just saying not to get too excited about it before Thanksgiving. But on the other hand, if there isn't a refi by then, expect the takeover eventually.

  • Reply to

    August the newfiling date for the sNDA,

    by tjnelis Jul 15, 2014 11:35 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 15, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Funny, I don't recall you admitting any errors. And since you were predicting a fold all through the era of the $19-29 trading range, that's plenty of opportunity to admit errors.

  • Reply to

    death cross by friday?

    by tjnelis Jul 15, 2014 3:22 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 15, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    I play a lot of high/low poker, so I'm used to 3/4. I don't believe in technical analysis (T&A are fine if you leave in that ampersand). I loathe "bad TJ," but "good TJ" is alright.

    If I DID believe in TA without the '&,' I'd note that its more respectable practitioners claim that it reveals the intentions of large players before really crude signs show. Pretty much by definition, then, it neither reads nor predicts low-volume movements. There IS a market maxim that "Stocks don't drift up," but that isn't TA.

  • Reply to

    Where is everyone??

    by ajdoha234 Jul 14, 2014 1:08 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 15, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    I'm always 'jacosa.' (It was my name code from SATs, and since it's easily pronounceable...)

    Companies don't like to buy other companies that have convertibles outstanding; their use as "poison pills" has highlighted the pitfalls, and it's a drain of legal resources to multiple-check every word of the offering documents. But companies anticipating big developments also don't like convertibles either, so an exchange at a critical moment is compatible with staying independent. It's a bit of a red flag for potential lenders when a company's most senior debt is convertible, so proving that you can clear it out is a show of financial strength that can be part of negotiations for a bond issue. I'm not enough of a student of financing practices to say what's common. What I know is that every time I've seen converts cleared away to make way for more favorable financing, it has happened faster than this. So just from that, I conclude that refi isn't the only thing on the table.

    I'll make an educated guess that it will cost $1/4bln to get SoP to market, and it would be a very good idea to have half that available by a year from now. That's a big enough need, early enough in the US rollout calendar, that I can't see a straight bond issue being an option. We're left with variations on the theme of selling equity to generate working capital. Despite all the moaning it would cause among current owners, a straight stock issue would probably be best for all of us in the long run. I mostly see it as a threat to get better terms for other possibilities, though. The tradeoff between selling the company vs a new issue of converts seems to come down to internal vs external estimates of the value of intangibles, mostly the SoP project. Listen to the CCs--I don't pick up unreasonable enthusiasm for SoP, so I'll guess that a deal can be done. However small the risk might be, I don't think anyone wants to complicate the NDA with a change of ownership during it.

  • Reply to

    Where is everyone??

    by ajdoha234 Jul 14, 2014 1:08 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 14, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    More likely than not to be bought out. Probably soon after approval. If there's a refinancing, it'll be a sign that they aren't thinking exclusively along those lines. The company simply isn't funded for both a US rollout and a push to develop Son of Pirfenidone simultaneously, so it's refi, take-out or possibly even both.

  • Reply to

    breakout below 50 IMMENANT

    by tjnelis Jul 14, 2014 9:59 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 14, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    Any comment on the double bottom?

  • Reply to

    Novartis milestone payment received

    by maddison3 Jul 8, 2014 8:20 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 10, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Different ballgame now. That's a 1-time $25MM to a company that's being valued on the expectation of a $bln sales drug (or three). Nice to have; timely, even. But not a big deal.

  • Reply to

    Novartis milestone payment received

    by maddison3 Jul 8, 2014 8:20 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 10, 2014 1:59 AM Flag

    You have it right. Milestone objectives are rarely disclosed, so I don't know and most likely it isn't known to the public.

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 9, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    As you can see from the article, this is a closer fit for Xeljanz. It might be different if Ruxolitinib cream was in the cards for psoriasis, but that project doesn't seem to be active.

  • Reply to

    open discussion on 2q potential results

    by tjnelis Jul 3, 2014 7:41 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 8, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    Jakafi had a so-so rollout (which management predicted, by the way). Resumption of sales growth after the plateau reflected dissemination of the titration protocol (they didn't do as well predicting what would interfere with the rollout), which is now on-label. The survival benefit of Jakafi is now widely accepted (Listening to some presentations, the tone suggests that FDA has telegraphed that citations of articles reporting survival benefit will be allowed on-label). Patients like the drug. Generally, a recipe for accelerating uptake.

    Trailing rise in SG&A appears to have been heavy investment in disseminating the titration protocol. Probably over, and spending in preparation for the push into PV shouldn't be overwhelmingly greater this Q or next.

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