Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

jacosa 120 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 1:34 AM Member since: Jan 24, 2000
  • Reply to

    August CC topic

    by jacosa Aug 4, 2015 10:40 AM
    jacosa jacosa Aug 4, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    After listening a second time (but without the slides), I think they ARE lowballing, but mostly because they don't quite believe it themselves. Apparently, rumors of the practical control of PV were greatly exaggerated. Lots of physicians were telling patients "Look, you have a chronic illness and you just have to accept it" and neither side felt good about it. So the rollout is going faster than anyone anticipated, and the likely ultimate market is larger than anticipated. AND discontinuation rate seems to be below projection. [and pooey on advocates of that oligonucleotide drug who claim that Jakafi can only be given for a short time before the side effects become intolerable]

    Other things that stand out: Lilly is likely to take further steps deploying Bari against diabetic nephropathy (As I keep repeating: the most expensive disease, and one without effective treatments). Discussion of IDO/PD[L]-1 trials as if more than 1 will be presented at a meeting within the year (drug companies don't present on complete failures).

    Something not being talked about openly: with Jakafi being given to large numbers of less sick patients, there's an opportunity to do a retrospective study some day to justify adding low risk MF to the label (there really isn't a practical way to do that directly). Another $500MM of addressable market.

  • Reply to

    August CC topic

    by jacosa Aug 4, 2015 10:40 AM
    jacosa jacosa Aug 4, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    A balancing act. This was a large part of the problem with "The bad conference call." If you lay out the case for a certain sales level, you'd best guide for something compatible with the case that you've made. If you don't, you MUST give some reasons for anticipating short-term problems. It is the lot of Analysts to be manipulated, but they can snap if it is done contemptuously. (The BCC added in sloppy presentation and smugness about how well the dark pipeline was being concealed)

  • Reply to

    August CC topic

    by jacosa Aug 4, 2015 10:40 AM
    jacosa jacosa Aug 4, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    I didn't think the issue was so much how they arrive at $1.5bln Jakafi sales vs MPNs as when it might happen and whether they were [shudder] lowballing the rest of the year.

  • As usual, just the call. My initial reaction is that there were fewer questions than I expected.

  • Reply to

    Very good results!

    by mofle65 Aug 4, 2015 7:12 AM
    jacosa jacosa Aug 4, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    Actual results crush my expectations. Sure enough, in pipeline developments the BRD inhibitor entered the clinic. Janus 1 continues, which is good news, but not as good as my fantasy. Insignificant milestones activity, which is a little puzzling. Didn't see anything about a JAK-1 inhibitor targeted against inflammation, which probably deserves comment

  • Reply to

    Maddie Any Prediction for tomorrow ?

    by bonkenx Aug 3, 2015 1:31 PM
    jacosa jacosa Aug 3, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    I'll be able to listen even if poker runs late tonight? Final vocal coaching session for HH? (too few companies actually do that, and they ought to) Quite possibly some issue related to financing, where details need to be laid out carefully. In my wet dream, they might want to file for the label expansion (presumably at 9 AM) before talking about it (They'd have been generating the sNDA in parallel with the statistical analysis).

  • Reply to

    Maddie Any Prediction for tomorrow ?

    by bonkenx Aug 3, 2015 1:31 PM
    jacosa jacosa Aug 3, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    I generally expect sales to come in light (inventory depletion, sluggishness against PV). If That Ethiopian had a paper for Chicago I expect that we'd have heard by now, so neutralizing him shouldn't be on the agenda. We could well be hearing about some sort of clinical progress. This is an Incyte event, so the collaborations aren't hot prospects. My wishful wishing about Janus 1 remains, but more likely would be a move of one or more pre-clinical candidates to clinical. You already can't tell the players without a program, so slides would be appropriate.

  • jacosa jacosa Aug 2, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    With much too little evidence to have any assurance, I combine this news, the slightly-delayed CC and the timing to assign maybe a 5% probability to Janus 1 having been terminated by slaughter rule (assume mid-June futility/slaughter reading; if no benefit, that would have been clear by mid-July; but to declare a slaughter you'd need to re-do the analysis a few different ways and early August would fit). That would result in substantial cash soon, and a clear path to steady increases (ultimately, half of cancer patients receiving JAK 1 or 1/2 inhibitors).

    Probability too low (and probability of an over-all disappointing CC too high) for me to pile in first thing, but if the best happens I won't be shy about using margin Wednesday morning, and no regrets for points of appreciation I didn't collect.

  • jacosa jacosa Aug 1, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    I don't see that Incyte needs much added sales and marketing for MF, nor so many for PV. Suggests that one of the possible new indications is looking promising.

  • Reply to

    Buy the DIPS

    by mrdtino Jul 29, 2015 9:44 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 30, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Buy siders assume that an unexpectedly late CC means trouble. Could be books that won't balance, an unexpected shortfall, management confusion. And if any of those is happening, it's better for owners if management DOES delay the call. Here we have a possibility of management distraction/confusion (it's ALWAYS possible, and if it happens, well, we've been there in the past). We also have a possibility of external events that management would like to comment on without the fuss of a separate release/meeting (I mostly refer to the Chicago abstracts).

  • Reply to

    what happened? anyone! thanks

    by willfirst888 Jul 30, 2015 10:57 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 30, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Lots of non-serious contributors, but mostly I think that buy-side analysts have looked at what might come out at next Tuesday's CC and come up with nothing that translates into cash near-term. Inventory oscillations in Jakafi have been damped over the year, but the recent quarter was likely an inventory-depleting one. It's unlikely Incyte will generate excitement with the title of an abstract for the ASH hem-onc meeting, but all too likely that one might suggest an eventual threat to Incyte's business.

    Remember: no news is good news for Janus 1, but to an analyst it just looks like no news. The Merck collaboration looks promising, but Incyte has no control of when news comes out (there should be a go/no decision by the next CC).

    It's rather frustrating that Jakavi looks like a well-launched product and still only maybe a quarter of the landmarks have been paid.

    Big non-serious issue is that the historic "bad conference call" was an August one.

  • Reply to

    Buy the DIPS

    by mrdtino Jul 29, 2015 9:44 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 30, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    I thought I was joking about analysts being surprised that the CC wasn't today. Why else would INCY drop sharply at the open?

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 29, 2015 7:44 PM Flag

    Just reiterated that it won'tbe so late they get delisted

  • Reply to

    Buy the DIPS

    by mrdtino Jul 29, 2015 9:44 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 29, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    Appears to trade in London, no US analyst coverage. I don't see ADRs, but apparently there's a thin private market in the foreign stock. That sounds like a pretty good case for leaving it alone.

    A Chinese domiciled drug developer looking at the same sorts of diseases as US developers target sounds like a good idea. One presumes government backing, which would make trials easier to enroll [snort]. I doubt that FDA (Or EMA) would license anything based exclusively on Chinese pivotal studies; you make money selling drugs in US/Canada and EU, so that advantage is diluted. They talk big about the Chinese health care market, but I'll have to see it for a while before I believe in it.

    Their blurb is the first mention I've seen of Yet Another 'ome' (kinome--the universe of all kinases). The similarity of the drug targets that they're addressing to those addressed by Incyte is pretty striking. From their boasting, I figure that they have about 30 drug candidates and they talk about something like 8, so they seem to be more talkative than is typical for the industry

  • Reply to

    Buy the DIPS

    by mrdtino Jul 29, 2015 9:44 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 29, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Was that Daly, soozanie?

    From the list of elements of the bear case that I posted a while back, the two that I consider worth watching are ability to fund an ever-growing clinical trials program and the low stock ownership by management. I expect to hear a lot in the next few CCs about least-dilutive funding of clinical trials (remember the 3-legged stool: debt, paid-in capital and retained earnings. Only the third is non-dilutive, and it's very hard to make it conform to your other plans). I'd really like to see a broad-based way for existing owners to pay in more capital on favorable terms.

    What I don't expect to hear mentioned voluntarily is that the whole range of incentive compensation of executives [which cuts the drive to own stock] seems to be getting awfully generous. That may be a good thing; since AT LEAST the 1970s, disproportionate channeling of money to top management and their friends has been the norm in US corporations. I won't do a long essay on the dodges used, but you know them. Incyte is being unusually public about it. I hope there will be some analyst questions.

    Other than that, I wonder how much of today's drop is caused by analysts waking up, checking what time to schedule the CC tomorrow, not seeing it, and going nuts {"An nescis, mi fili, quantilla prudentia mundus regatur?")

  • Reply to

    $108.54 close ,Right at major support

    by bonkenx Jul 24, 2015 4:03 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 25, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    It's possible that we've already seen all the tightening we're going to before YE (increased reserve requirement for systemically critical financials), Economy just isn't very robust right now. News on housing is mixed.

    And again, rising rates matter more the farther into the future the cash part of your value proposition is. INCY has both near and far, but most of the issues that people pay attention to become money 1.5-2 years out (Bari, the IDO inhibitor).

  • Reply to

    $108.54 close ,Right at major support

    by bonkenx Jul 24, 2015 4:03 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 24, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    He didn't even mention Bari, nor did he mention the bromodomain modifier which looks like the most interesting of the barely-clinical pipeline.

  • Reply to

    Anemic day 3

    by mrdtino Jul 23, 2015 12:27 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 24, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Remember: the "bad conference call" was August (3 years ago?). It's like the stock market in October in years ending with '7' or '9.' No good reason, but you're extra cautious.

    Remember what went wrong: top management on the call were tired and distracted, they were caught transparently lowballing the earnings forecast and little bits of the "dark pipeline" leaked [really, in retrospect, very little].

    So yeah, I'd like to hear next Thursday, but if this EoQ accounting figures to tire the guys who'll speak, or if somebody has a travel conflict, that would be enough reason to wait until after the weekend. News? It's possible It's possible that they want to let anybody else's news come out before the CC, too.

  • I was scanning for upcoming events and found a new biggie. First ASH meeting on hematologic malignancies, Sept 17-19. Mostly a series of "How I Treat..." presentations by big names (MF presentation by Reuben Mesa, who seems to be unique in getting along with everybody). Some room in the program for breaking news. Abstract submitters to be notified by August 1, so titles may be released soon afterward. The example abstract is full-poster-sized (and incidentally a 2010 Ruxo poster), so I doubt that abstracts will be published before the meeting starts. To attract business to this meeting, ASH will allow material presented at it to be the basis of national meeting (Dec) presentations.

    Really wild speculation: the Aug CC is a tad late this year. Might they be anxious to mention abstracts accepted for this meeting?

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 21, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    Sure enough--I missed this before (I said in the 68% increase item that I would look at this)--RESPONSE:

    Enrollment: 222
    Study Start Date: October 2010
    Estimated Study Completion Date: December 2018
    Primary Completion Date: January 2014 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)

    Nominal life expectancy after a diagnosis of PV is 20 years, so the full 8-year study is long enough to pick up a survival signal (not to mention progression to MF or AML).

    Sure, my constant refrain is that an investment time frame is about 18 months, but this has some interesting features. First: the earliest date when that telomerase inhibitor could hit the market is 2018, and even then they wouldn't be able to claim a survival benefit. Second: there's a [relatively] large and easy market for indolent and mild MF, and a significant decrease in transitions to MF in this group could help in attacking that market.

TSRA
32.89-0.51(-1.53%)1:26 PMEDT