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Incyte Corporation Message Board

jacosa 2962 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 17, 2014 11:33 AM Member since: Jan 24, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Very Strange

    by always_smiling_30539 Oct 17, 2014 10:09 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 17, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    If you figure the shorts sold around $25-28, they didn't exactly play it well. It isn't management's business to pump every day, and they haven't. Myriad's history of product marketing has been very uneven, with both brilliance and futility represented; there are 2 key products early in their rollouts (MyRisk and Prolaris), and Im inclined to be guardedly optimistic.

  • Reply to

    Did CFO get canned?

    by fiddy_sense Oct 17, 2014 9:30 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 17, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    CFO has many jobs, including collecting, spending and reporting on the money. Stability is good. The quality of the new guy suggests that internally there was plenty of lead time, although the 2-week warning sort of doesn't. Best I can come up with is that there was internal dissatisfaction with Hastings for a while, and when someone received a feeler from Gryska they moved quickly. So yeah, canned.

    My concern is that I think Dr Paul still has a lot of influence, and business-wise I think he's impatient; HH comes from a bigger company, where the money can always be found. So the easiest kind of dissatisfaction to imagine is that Hastings was the wet blanket. And at its present stage of business development, Incyte needs that wet blanket.

  • I wouldn't expect so (it's not at all clear that the market expansion will bring in more money), but seeing INCY strong in a very weak market leaves the possibility open that SOMETHING is stirring the appetites of portfolio runners. The calendar suggests 3 kinds of rumors that people could be buying on: the PV approval, the earliest Lilly p3-s on Bari, or a third-party p2 of some sort (probably cancer inflammation). Only the third strikes me as possibly novel or important enough to stop the pros from selling on the news, whatever it might be.

  • Reply to

    Concern?

    by lkbum Oct 15, 2014 1:47 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 15, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    Yes concern. Accidet excrementum and all that, but you really really dislike critical malfunctions of a key product.

  • Reply to

    TSRA wins huge lawsuit - big special div to come?

    by sts_66 Oct 10, 2014 5:33 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 15, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    Try for maybe the next three years to collect it.

  • Reply to

    Unusual opening for many Biotechs

    by bonkenx Oct 15, 2014 11:23 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 15, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    We may be getting some halo effect from the US approval of the former Intermune's drug Esbriet. At least it shows that someone's breathing over at FDA.

  • Reply to

    Looks pretty minor, but no recall is "cheap"

    by lkbum Oct 13, 2014 10:54 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 13, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Depends on number of units, which is sometimes surprisingly low for medical devices. How many of these are out there?

    But in any case, missing transport documentation is A Big Deal, and we haven't heard the last of this.

  • Reply to

    TSRA wins huge lawsuit - big special div to come?

    by sts_66 Oct 10, 2014 5:33 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 13, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    As the man said, endless. This OUGHT to be the simplest kind of contract dispute, but there are a couple levels of appeals left. And while AMKOR has plenty of clout, they aren't in a league with Qualcomm. So this looks like the one that the new Tessera WON'T go out of their way to settle. If I was Mr Tessera, I'd even consider trying to claim punitive damages for frivolous litigation.

    So anyway, don't hold your breath on that dividend.

  • Reply to

    the myth of the short squeeze

    by netprophecy2 Oct 6, 2014 3:52 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 7, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    You don't need an actual corner. MYGN was shorted heavily in anticipation of a total collapse under lower-priced competition. That simply isn't happening, nor does it look likely. So there will be THAT MANY extra shares to be bought over a modest period. No, not a spike into the stratosphere, but a definite tailwind for the stock.

  • Reply to

    Ok! I took 5 min to read the news release

    by valuebuy2005 Oct 7, 2014 8:38 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 7, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    I'm not sure what the going-forward business model IS. Lot of verbiage that doesn't really identify who will be doing what from which location. OLD success was a chain of pawn shops that were fairly uniform, and nicer than average. Recent failure was adding many more locations that were TOO nice combined with big fantasy plans, ineptly executed. To come???

  • jacosa jacosa Oct 6, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    Ok, what do we make of the announcement? It sounds like Mr Cohen sees EZ as the Amazon of finance for the uncomfortable. Focusing on the relationship and delivering the appropriate products from a centralized operation. And here I thought we had a chain of pawn shops.

  • Reply to

    Zack's, late as always

    by jacosa Oct 6, 2014 10:07 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 6, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    They're the low priced spread of advice, but cheap and abundant. It's easy to be bipolar about Incyte--RECAP is a great example: resounding success relative to its actual purpose, but in practice it opened a dispute about validity of the "subgroup criterion" and will leave oncologists scratching their heads for at least a year. Or the PV indication--no doubt about getting it, on-label, but can it generate money?

  • Reply to

    Sex and APOE effects

    by interestingtome Oct 4, 2014 2:22 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 6, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    I WANT success, but is this fundamentally anything other than a reason why trials in the future will need to be larger and more expensive to run?

  • So today they got around to reporting the $60MM milestone. And no joy on late being more complete: I still don't know what the triggering event was (I'm coming increasingly strongly to the belief that it was triggered by hitting overall market/sales sufficient to trigger the back-royalty). But what I hadn't known was that Zack's rates Incyte a "strong sell." Since Zack's is today's equivalent of the S&P yellow sheets that odd-lotters looked at when I was starting out, it's a little more impressive that Incyte is holding its range in the face of a headwind to retail stock purchase (of course, we must remember that this is a quintessentially institutional stock).

    My price prediction for the Vs and Ms of the world: any price between $42 and $52, any time, for no identifiable reason. Wake me up when you start your Advent Calendar.

  • jacosa jacosa Oct 3, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    So now you're actively trading options? Not the world's safest game.

  • Reply to

    direct link to BOD for Volcano - good read

    by lkbum Sep 30, 2014 12:23 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 2, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Points well made. I guess I put more faith in a couple of the ongoing projects than the letter suggests, but on the other hand I find the evident mixing of production with R&D activities and the glacial Costa Rica rollout upsetting enough that they would be additional points. Anyway, they have my proxy if they ask for it.

  • Reply to

    Anybody hearing Anything?

    by alexalekhine Oct 1, 2014 11:07 AM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 2, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    News today that might tie in was about a crackdown on predatory lending by new car dealers. More regulation of competitors who have been getting off easy benefits the guys who have been in the spotlight all along.

  • jacosa jacosa Oct 2, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    The milestone was announced, but $60MM is chump change in the big picture. The REASON the money became payable wasn't announced, so what the market mostly sees is that "low single digit" back-royalty (call it 4% and presume an $800MM US Jakafi market, that's $32MM a year outflow ongoing. Now a single added top-5 European market could do $50MM a year with twenty-mumble percent of that going to Incyte, so the deal isn't a bad one, but today the market sees the one-time payment TO Incyte and an ongoing payment stream FROM Incyte.

  • jacosa jacosa Oct 2, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    That's my first guess. Or, as a second guess, this may have been "reverse triggered;" the approvals or sales in non-top-five European countries may have reached the threshold for the back-royalty, and there could be a contract provision that the back-royalty triggers the milestone.

  • Reply to

    buy 'em

    by newtwo99 Sep 30, 2014 12:35 PM
    jacosa jacosa Oct 1, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    I just did some combos: bought stock, sold January puts and sold May calls. There may or may not be a sudden short squeeze, but a lot of shares are short on the expectation that MYGN is going bust-o, and that just isn't happening. So there's extra demand, even if it's never a rush.

INCY
50.08-1.42(-2.76%)Oct 17 4:00 PMEDT

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