I think it's at least a couple of Qs to early to say whether recent steps lead forward or backward. And since I always thought Mr Cohen had his hands dirty in the past, his increased involvement is a non-factor.
I'm a little concerned that he was formerly associated with Myrexis, a company which had destructive conflicts between financial and operating sides (although he may have come in after the devastation)
If you figure the shorts sold around $25-28, they didn't exactly play it well. It isn't management's business to pump every day, and they haven't. Myriad's history of product marketing has been very uneven, with both brilliance and futility represented; there are 2 key products early in their rollouts (MyRisk and Prolaris), and Im inclined to be guardedly optimistic.
CFO has many jobs, including collecting, spending and reporting on the money. Stability is good. The quality of the new guy suggests that internally there was plenty of lead time, although the 2-week warning sort of doesn't. Best I can come up with is that there was internal dissatisfaction with Hastings for a while, and when someone received a feeler from Gryska they moved quickly. So yeah, canned.
My concern is that I think Dr Paul still has a lot of influence, and business-wise I think he's impatient; HH comes from a bigger company, where the money can always be found. So the easiest kind of dissatisfaction to imagine is that Hastings was the wet blanket. And at its present stage of business development, Incyte needs that wet blanket.
I wouldn't expect so (it's not at all clear that the market expansion will bring in more money), but seeing INCY strong in a very weak market leaves the possibility open that SOMETHING is stirring the appetites of portfolio runners. The calendar suggests 3 kinds of rumors that people could be buying on: the PV approval, the earliest Lilly p3-s on Bari, or a third-party p2 of some sort (probably cancer inflammation). Only the third strikes me as possibly novel or important enough to stop the pros from selling on the news, whatever it might be.
We may be getting some halo effect from the US approval of the former Intermune's drug Esbriet. At least it shows that someone's breathing over at FDA.
Depends on number of units, which is sometimes surprisingly low for medical devices. How many of these are out there?
But in any case, missing transport documentation is A Big Deal, and we haven't heard the last of this.
As the man said, endless. This OUGHT to be the simplest kind of contract dispute, but there are a couple levels of appeals left. And while AMKOR has plenty of clout, they aren't in a league with Qualcomm. So this looks like the one that the new Tessera WON'T go out of their way to settle. If I was Mr Tessera, I'd even consider trying to claim punitive damages for frivolous litigation.
So anyway, don't hold your breath on that dividend.
You don't need an actual corner. MYGN was shorted heavily in anticipation of a total collapse under lower-priced competition. That simply isn't happening, nor does it look likely. So there will be THAT MANY extra shares to be bought over a modest period. No, not a spike into the stratosphere, but a definite tailwind for the stock.
I'm not sure what the going-forward business model IS. Lot of verbiage that doesn't really identify who will be doing what from which location. OLD success was a chain of pawn shops that were fairly uniform, and nicer than average. Recent failure was adding many more locations that were TOO nice combined with big fantasy plans, ineptly executed. To come???
Ok, what do we make of the announcement? It sounds like Mr Cohen sees EZ as the Amazon of finance for the uncomfortable. Focusing on the relationship and delivering the appropriate products from a centralized operation. And here I thought we had a chain of pawn shops.
They're the low priced spread of advice, but cheap and abundant. It's easy to be bipolar about Incyte--RECAP is a great example: resounding success relative to its actual purpose, but in practice it opened a dispute about validity of the "subgroup criterion" and will leave oncologists scratching their heads for at least a year. Or the PV indication--no doubt about getting it, on-label, but can it generate money?
I WANT success, but is this fundamentally anything other than a reason why trials in the future will need to be larger and more expensive to run?
So today they got around to reporting the $60MM milestone. And no joy on late being more complete: I still don't know what the triggering event was (I'm coming increasingly strongly to the belief that it was triggered by hitting overall market/sales sufficient to trigger the back-royalty). But what I hadn't known was that Zack's rates Incyte a "strong sell." Since Zack's is today's equivalent of the S&P yellow sheets that odd-lotters looked at when I was starting out, it's a little more impressive that Incyte is holding its range in the face of a headwind to retail stock purchase (of course, we must remember that this is a quintessentially institutional stock).
My price prediction for the Vs and Ms of the world: any price between $42 and $52, any time, for no identifiable reason. Wake me up when you start your Advent Calendar.
Points well made. I guess I put more faith in a couple of the ongoing projects than the letter suggests, but on the other hand I find the evident mixing of production with R&D activities and the glacial Costa Rica rollout upsetting enough that they would be additional points. Anyway, they have my proxy if they ask for it.
News today that might tie in was about a crackdown on predatory lending by new car dealers. More regulation of competitors who have been getting off easy benefits the guys who have been in the spotlight all along.
The milestone was announced, but $60MM is chump change in the big picture. The REASON the money became payable wasn't announced, so what the market mostly sees is that "low single digit" back-royalty (call it 4% and presume an $800MM US Jakafi market, that's $32MM a year outflow ongoing. Now a single added top-5 European market could do $50MM a year with twenty-mumble percent of that going to Incyte, so the deal isn't a bad one, but today the market sees the one-time payment TO Incyte and an ongoing payment stream FROM Incyte.