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Incyte Corporation Message Board

jacosa 132 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 12, 2014 11:36 PM Member since: Jan 24, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Notes on the Conference Call & results

    by marketwatch_imax Feb 20, 2014 6:56 PM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 21, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    The install rate is controlled more by the developers than by IMAX.

    One hopeful development is that South America seems to be starting to move.

  • Reply to

    AACR

    by tazamatic2002 Feb 19, 2014 11:28 PM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 20, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    These things drive me nuts. We won't be able to see the body of the abstract for another 2 weeks.

  • Reply to

    wHy

    by mahendrayogi2000 Feb 19, 2014 1:49 PM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 19, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    Just a guess, but the timing works for bad developments in Europe. Either something about Jakavi from N.I.C.E. or something about Xeljanz (which is being looked at as a stalking horse for Bari). As I've said before, the $60MM milestone is going to be late if it depends on Italy or Spain. Best chance of getting it in the first Half is if N.I.C.E. admits that there is a real value in getting a British Subject out of bed and onto his feet. But that is one straaange organization...

  • I don't see anything by or about Rachel McMinn since the end of January. Her joining a new shop would presumably be news. Anyone know something?

  • Reply to

    Nice $25 Billion buyout announced today...

    by mrdtino Feb 18, 2014 11:53 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 18, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    What management seems to be counting on is Jakafi with a lot MF and PV patients (maybe meaningful numbers from ET, too), a nice market against toxic cancers, Bari as the go-to treatment for severe RA, one of the non-JAK drugs making a place for itself and STILL a deep and exciting pipeline. There's some room to do better than that, and a lot of room to do worse. But right now, I don't see anything to say it won't happen. Make your own guess what that possible company would be worth.

  • Reply to

    prostate testing data published

    by newtwo99 Feb 18, 2014 7:46 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 18, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    Why do you cite that paper? The abstract suggests that no snapshot of tumor genetic complement is going to be definitive by itself (that is, that Prolaris has a fundamental limitation).

    Once you have basic marketability of a test, it becomes a selling exercise. Myriad is good at selling novel tests, but with prediction of metastasis merely better than the other (very poor) tries, and not very good itself, selling is going to be a challenge. Longer follow-up may help.

  • Reply to

    prostate testing data published

    by newtwo99 Feb 18, 2014 7:46 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 18, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    You're somewhat ahead of yourself. General acceptance of Prolaris would be huge. This is a step toward that. And yeah, the timing is good. But look at how much work it took to get general acceptance of BRACAnalysis. The topline leaves open the possibility that Prolaris may not be quite good enough to be an easy sell. Another issue that may make adoption slower than adoption of BRACAnalysis is that because the mutations are somatic rather than germline, one positive doesn't sell tests to lots of relatives of the patient.

    One toll gate on the highway.

  • Reply to

    On 20 Febraury RESULTS

    by acello_ethiopia Feb 17, 2014 3:12 PM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 17, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    That's financial results. We ARE a bit primed for another kind of results.

  • Reply to

    Good Candidates – Long Side Only

    by ice99pinguin Feb 16, 2014 6:27 PM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 17, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    DNA? Multi-gigabux? At least take a look at Myriad Genetics (MYGN). Every time someone needs a companion diagnostic, they are in the game. They ARE presently betting the company on a new product, so price movements should be muted until results come in (Betting the company, but not so they might fail the day the bet goes bad; more like the company is developing in a bad direction and this is the designated try to get onto a favorable course).

  • jacosa jacosa Feb 14, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    I'm not a Feuerstein fan, but he seems to have the important stuff right this time. And the obvious screamer is enlightening. Referring to the Incyte and BI drugs, he says "Neither of the drugs will work forever, so assume IPF patients will likely receive both at some point." This reveals that F. is looking at the drug action as similar to drugs for cancer or chronic infection, where there is a period of good control, then the disease escapes control and progresses. I've seen statements by other [to use the correct, though rude, word] touts that make sense if you follow this false analogy. These drugs slow passage through the intermediate phase of IPF. Nothing too dramatic, just an extra year or so of being able to get around. There is no opportunity to try another drug after the first one has blown its wad.

    Feuerstein does us a service by quoting important parts of the "BioPharm Insight" article that maintained the drop, but we (or I, anyway) still haven't seen the original tweets (which presumably went to people who didn't publish them as well as those who did.) F points out that the AE part of the rumor is implausible as reported.

  • The oddness of the research program finally got through to me: a lot of those exploratory trials would traditionally have been done as investigator-sponsored p2s. The company has some specific ideas that it wants to investigate, and it makes sense that they wouldn't wait to find oncs who were enthusiastic enough about those ideas to take the lead. And to be sure, some of them are practically mini-p3s, with a chance of selling something fairly quickly if the trial succeeds. But still and all, combination regimens and same drug / different tumor extensions have come as often from the trenches as from the main office.

    Am I missing the investigator stuff? Has care management by insurance providers dampened initiative? Are the ideas just too novel for practitioners to be pushing them forward yet? Or maybe I'm longing for the return of a past that never was (Bierce?) and investigator sponsored p2s were never as bold as I think.

  • Reply to

    Feb 12, 2014 CC

    by jacosa Feb 12, 2014 9:54 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 12, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    I'll just scratch the surface of some of the trickier stuff. I may have to learn a lot more about cytokines and growth factors to be able to skim reports and gather the highlights, going forward.

    There are three kinds of drug hunts going forward within Incyte. There are the single agent searches we all know and love, there are the "conventional chemo" combinations like capacitabine + ruxo and there are "deep biological" combinations involving multiple pathway-dependent drugs (like the dual immune sensitizer thing with Merck). Basically, there are a sh.tload of combinations being tried in nominally phase 2 studies (some of them are barely beyond phase 1s; some have a hope of leading to label presence or registration) Even one of the JANUS p3s has an early-stage evaluation of a cancer illness scoring questionnaire tacked on. A theme that recurs is that if the other part of the combination causes marrow suppression, the Incyte partner is not Ruxo. Otherwise, since Ruxo can be sold, it is the preferred partner. Some of these have potential to generate off-label Ruxo sales quickly, which is fortunate, because some, like the 2-Incyte-agent (Was it PI3K inhibitor + ruxo? taking it as an example, it doesn't matter) proposed attack on colon cancer, could take a long time and burn lots of money. Experience shows that drug companies do best when moderately cash-constrained, but if Incyte generates 2 drugs a year worthy of registration studies, it could become hard to support them all.

  • Reply to

    Feb 12, 2014 CC

    by jacosa Feb 12, 2014 9:54 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 12, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Xeljanz got off to a terrible start because Pfizer didn't focus on demonstrating preservation of joint structure. They haven't recovered from that #$%$. Attention to the same issue is part of why Lilly is taking so long. As for safety, the intention to make Bari safer than Ruxo seems to have worked, and Ruxo has shown no cause for safety concern. There has been a definite impression the last few Incyte presentations that they're figuring Bari will come along whenever it does, and no use creating expectations.

    It has long been clear when reading Rachel McMinn's reports that she has been editing her sum-of-parts valuations with scissors to get numbers her bosses could accept. Her narratives are superb (have been, anyway).

  • Reply to

    Feb 12, 2014 CC

    by jacosa Feb 12, 2014 9:54 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 12, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    I don't know what you're asking. Stock price? Where my money is, is I have a ton of stock, but with calls written against about a third of it. Perhaps Ruxo use will tick up after the magic subset is identified. Perhaps the same after PV results are revealed (and THAT is the worst-kept secret Incyte has ever had). But the next news item I can think of that will definitely promise higher earnings is FDA approval to put PV on the Jakafi label--end of the year. Crazy stuff can happen.

  • Reply to

    Feb 12, 2014 CC

    by jacosa Feb 12, 2014 9:54 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 12, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    Not that it isn't flattering, but let's call this personal stuff that is best left out of this topic.

  • Reply to

    Feb 12, 2014 CC

    by jacosa Feb 12, 2014 9:54 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 12, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    Nobody else yet? I've now read the statement and the transcript and it STILL stretches my poor little head. So I'll start with some lighter stuff.

    HH did well. He isn't the expert on much interesting, so he let the experts talk. No Rachel McMinn (or BoA/ML) at all. Quid donat? (What gives?) The money flows last year weren't anything to wake me up. Yeah, you can see that they were getting ahead of preparing for a PV market. The third major EU approval ought to be UK, and it ought to be in the next month (N.I.C.E. can be surprising, but the case is awfully strong--they might imaginably hold out to see if FDA allows survival article references on the label). If they totally punt it, that $60MM milestone may be delayed a couple Qs--Italy's government dithers even more than ours. And by the way, while the survival data for MF is impressive, I think it's less than even money that FDA will allow reference to it on the label. Just the way they are. On its face, the projected R&D expense for the next year has to be taken as a baseline. The 2 JANUSs alone could easily burn $500MM.

    Notice that the Bari trials are taking forever. Warning for the development of a JAK1 drug against RA. Speaking of forever, predicted reporting of JANUSs in '16 was a surprise.

    Maybe I'd better study some more before getting in deeper.

  • As usual, please PLEASE keep the pumping/bashing and personal stuff out of this one topic. There are SO many other places for them.

    Less usually, I have little to say up front. tt was a VERY dense CC and I'll need to look at the statement and the transcript. Small observations: a projected $350MM+ coming year and still growing qualifies Jakafi as a blockbuster in most views. Somebody said something about growing Jakafi inventory: since there is no production of the API, that can only be accounting doodah (price increases; reduced typical dosage).

  • jacosa jacosa Feb 11, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    Cohen picks the BoD. The BoD has consistently ignored the interests of the majority of owners, and has persisted in giving investment banking business to Madison Park despite their record of leaving loose ends on deals. This has worked almost as badly for Mr Cohen as it has for TRoU. But our only recourse involves legal action; he could get a better board pretty much at will (and if he encouraged them to get outside investment banking help, it would surely happen)

    EZPW is my third biggest holding; I believe in the businesses. I believe that SOMETHING will end the nonfeasance of the BoD and the aimless flailing of the Rothamel team. A buyout would have been nice, but perhaps a class action will do.

  • Reply to

    Plcsf

    by llester944 Feb 11, 2014 2:05 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 11, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    We don't know how badly they've given away the store. Mid-trial announcements are about 10 months overdue. I rate the chance of a 5x or better gain below 50:50 and a 10x or better gain as not worth thinking about. I like my gambles better than that.

  • Reply to

    Blackrock owns more than 5%

    by maddison3 Feb 11, 2014 8:40 AM
    jacosa jacosa Feb 11, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    I think Blackrock is rebalancing higher in biotech / small pharma. Benediction on the segment; look at tome of their fund allocations when reported to see if they are making finer-grained choices.

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