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Incyte Corporation Message Board

jacosa 115 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Jan 24, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Where is everyone??

    by ajdoha234 Jul 14, 2014 1:08 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 15, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    I'm always 'jacosa.' (It was my name code from SATs, and since it's easily pronounceable...)

    Companies don't like to buy other companies that have convertibles outstanding; their use as "poison pills" has highlighted the pitfalls, and it's a drain of legal resources to multiple-check every word of the offering documents. But companies anticipating big developments also don't like convertibles either, so an exchange at a critical moment is compatible with staying independent. It's a bit of a red flag for potential lenders when a company's most senior debt is convertible, so proving that you can clear it out is a show of financial strength that can be part of negotiations for a bond issue. I'm not enough of a student of financing practices to say what's common. What I know is that every time I've seen converts cleared away to make way for more favorable financing, it has happened faster than this. So just from that, I conclude that refi isn't the only thing on the table.

    I'll make an educated guess that it will cost $1/4bln to get SoP to market, and it would be a very good idea to have half that available by a year from now. That's a big enough need, early enough in the US rollout calendar, that I can't see a straight bond issue being an option. We're left with variations on the theme of selling equity to generate working capital. Despite all the moaning it would cause among current owners, a straight stock issue would probably be best for all of us in the long run. I mostly see it as a threat to get better terms for other possibilities, though. The tradeoff between selling the company vs a new issue of converts seems to come down to internal vs external estimates of the value of intangibles, mostly the SoP project. Listen to the CCs--I don't pick up unreasonable enthusiasm for SoP, so I'll guess that a deal can be done. However small the risk might be, I don't think anyone wants to complicate the NDA with a change of ownership during it.

  • Reply to

    Where is everyone??

    by ajdoha234 Jul 14, 2014 1:08 PM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 14, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    More likely than not to be bought out. Probably soon after approval. If there's a refinancing, it'll be a sign that they aren't thinking exclusively along those lines. The company simply isn't funded for both a US rollout and a push to develop Son of Pirfenidone simultaneously, so it's refi, take-out or possibly even both.

  • Reply to

    breakout below 50 IMMENANT

    by tjnelis Jul 14, 2014 9:59 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 14, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    Any comment on the double bottom?

  • Reply to

    Novartis milestone payment received

    by maddison3 Jul 8, 2014 8:20 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 10, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Different ballgame now. That's a 1-time $25MM to a company that's being valued on the expectation of a $bln sales drug (or three). Nice to have; timely, even. But not a big deal.

  • Reply to

    Novartis milestone payment received

    by maddison3 Jul 8, 2014 8:20 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 10, 2014 1:59 AM Flag

    You have it right. Milestone objectives are rarely disclosed, so I don't know and most likely it isn't known to the public.

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 9, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    As you can see from the article, this is a closer fit for Xeljanz. It might be different if Ruxolitinib cream was in the cards for psoriasis, but that project doesn't seem to be active.

  • Reply to

    open discussion on 2q potential results

    by tjnelis Jul 3, 2014 7:41 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 8, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    Jakafi had a so-so rollout (which management predicted, by the way). Resumption of sales growth after the plateau reflected dissemination of the titration protocol (they didn't do as well predicting what would interfere with the rollout), which is now on-label. The survival benefit of Jakafi is now widely accepted (Listening to some presentations, the tone suggests that FDA has telegraphed that citations of articles reporting survival benefit will be allowed on-label). Patients like the drug. Generally, a recipe for accelerating uptake.

    Trailing rise in SG&A appears to have been heavy investment in disseminating the titration protocol. Probably over, and spending in preparation for the push into PV shouldn't be overwhelmingly greater this Q or next.

  • Reply to

    open discussion on 2q potential results

    by tjnelis Jul 3, 2014 7:41 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 7, 2014 11:55 PM Flag

    I would guess 80 MM of "Jakafi" sales (I expect Jakafi sales for MF to hit $125MM around Q3 of '15) and 13-15MM of royalties. SG&A is hard to call; I'll give you the 40MM, but can't see why you'd call that "exploding." Contract income is also hard to call, but with Incyte conducting the trials on the immune-oncology cooperations it isn't going to go away. Your R&D number might be low--so many of the clinical trials are set up as investigator-sponsored that it's hard to judge. But Janus 2 is going to be an expensive trial eventually, even if it isn't starting fast. So yeah, a GAAP loss.

  • Reply to

    incyte in new trend of lower high and lower lows

    by tjnelis Jul 7, 2014 11:25 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 7, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Looked at a chart out of curiosity. Please give dates and prices of 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows (implicit: a 1-day chart doesn't count unless you predict 40s within a week). In your own time.

  • Nice Seeking Alpha article by Richard Pearson, a bear, about a couple boiler rooms that specialize in bulling biotech stocks with low institutional ownership. Not that it applies directly, but it's a look at remarkably sophisticated techniques for manipulating sentiment. Let's see if the link can be posted http://seekingalpha.com/article/2301825-behind-the-promotion-of-northwest-bio

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 7, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Ok, it's a bet. MYGN goes to $50 for at least 2 hours any time within a month after the CMS decision, I'll post that I was wrong. Doesn't pass $45 within the month, you post that you were wrong. Middle ground is close enough to a tie for gummint work. On?

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 4, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    I think we're in a severe "Show me the money!" situation. So I'd expect an advance on a reimbursement announcement to be small and short-lived. It'll take actual sales data, and maybe even earnings data, to generate a big move.

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 3, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    You know that my other big drug developer holding is Intermune. They filed an 8K today saying that FDA had agreed that their NDA had been filed and giving them a late November PDUFA date. Apparently you haven't filed until FDA says you've filed [basically, that they agree there's enough information for them to base a decision on it]. So it's entirely possible that Incyte has already done what most of us would call filing the sNDA, but the company doesn't want to anticipate FDA by saying so.

  • Reply to

    Continued Negotiated Redemption

    by fitzdad55 Jul 2, 2014 7:58 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 2, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    My classification of time frames may seem a little stretched. Let's say either visible movement or new debt by October. Probably sorted out before FDA approval. The cash position right now isn't enormously favorable for a US drug introduction, so there figures to be a third shoe, and it would be more common to see new debt placed with the second round of conversions than otherwise if the company planned on staying independent.

  • Reply to

    Continued Negotiated Redemption

    by fitzdad55 Jul 2, 2014 7:58 AM
    jacosa jacosa Jul 2, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    And in response, I bought a little more (I'm already seriously overweighted, but this sets a time frame.)

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