Not that it would be hard (It would probably be criminal), but I doubt that you know how MUCH EZ I own. That use of 'we,' though--are you a Goldman house login? I'd be sad.
If you can find where I claimed to be perfect, please ridicule that publicly. You won't have a lot of trouble, though, finding where I said that Myriad's trade secrets were critical but the gene patents weren't, and management distraction due to lawsuits was a drag. And sure enough, that's what time seems to be revealing.
If you've been short any large sector that MYGN was a logical part of for the last 2 years, you've probably lost a ton. If you were just short Myriad, you still have your skin, and you can save it by covering. And if you're Goldman, well, justice is delayed, but some day...
Continuing on short interest: came out yesterday. Basically, unchanged report. If I was short, I'd have covered some in this negative market, but we'll have to wait a few more weeks to see if anyone did.
Most I can read into this is that somebody is acting as if Incyte will have a use for its own headquarters for a few years. And we already knew that top brass were thinking that way. There isn't a heck of a lot that they could know and not be required to disclose. The really material one, that they would even be forbidden to disclose, would be if Janus 1 JUST failed to get stopped for slaughter. They know the results of the open-label run-ins of the various phase 2-s (a person could go broke very quickly investing based on the run-in parts of phase 2-s). And of course they know a lot about the pipeline that they aren't publicizing. Lilly will be doing the selling on Bari, so that doesn't require more desk space for sales. Any one of the combos, though, probably WOULD put more butts in chairs, and PaCa is different enough for MPNs to probably need new hires. The best guarantee of continued independence is a pipeline rich enough so the uncertainty about the real value of far future business is comparable to or larger than the market cap.
The art isn't never to lose money (The Blessed Warren gives that as a goal, but even he sometimes falls short), but to make more on your winners than you lose on your losers. That takes a lot more discipline on the short side than on the long side. [sitting forever on a position that has gone 20+% against you, and where the original "fatal damage" hasn't actually hurt much, doesn't sound like the needed level of discipline]
After a lot of devious thinking, my best present guess is that in the present low interest rate environment they consider commercial real estate a good place to park cash, and they particularly like a building that they are in a position to see keeps its tenant
Yeah, that was me. As long as the Geroniacs don't scribble up THIS board again I'm inclined to leave their board alone; it's probably better that I don't look. ONLY if someone says something funny, pass it on. As I said: stub of a company, of no particular interest to us, but they really wanted an Incyte fan to play.
My favorite part of it was that it got me to read adverse event listings form the PPI (label). 8% incidence of urinary tract infections...everyone's heard of "Honeymoon bladder," right? Sex is SO much better when your giant spleen is shrunk to normal. Hadn't thought...
A lot of things have driven prices higher, but the one I consider the worst was Medicare part D (You did a heckuva job, Bushie). This is what you get when people who believe government can do no good try to put together a government program that does good. Medicare is the biggest single customer for drugs, and is forbidden to negotiate drug pricing. Obamacare was supposed to partially correct it by expanding Medicaid, which IS allowed to negotiate drug pricing. But the panjandrums of too many states don't want to expand a program For Those People, so Medicaid didn't grow as much as anticipated. Insurance companies, of course, have no incentive to get lower drug prices (in fact, have an incentive against it) so long as they all get the SAME price. So nobody with real market power is trying to push prices down, and this is what we get. Medicare IS permitted to negotiate pricing of medical tests, and the situation there is a lot closer to reasonable.
The revision also cites bunch of potential drug candidates not on the "official" list. perhaps they were previously announced, I don't recall.
What got into his bloodstream? Generic ruxo this year? He ought to have woken up after writing that. Confusing targets with drugs? That's how he gave the impression that ruxo and bari are the same thing.
Until more information is available TO US (online access to NEJM isn't common among individual investors), the presumption is that these are formal reports of old news. We saw the posters years ago.
The earliest plausible time when Imetelstat might reach market is 2018. That's beyond most investors' time horizon, and by then Jakafi for MF is expected to be a detail of Incyte's earnings.
The ET publication is of limited business interest because, pasting a paragraph from Geron's web site:
"Menlo Park, Calif., November 3, 2014 - Geron Corporation (Nasdaq: GERN) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has removed the full clinical hold on Geron's investigational new drug (IND) application for imetelstat. In addition, the FDA stated that Geron's proposed clinical development plan for imetelstat that is focused on high-risk myeloid malignancies, such as myelofibrosis (MF), is acceptable. The FDA acknowledged that the company does not intend to conduct further studies in, or develop imetelstat for, the treatment of essential thrombocythemia (ET) or polycythemia vera, which is consistent with the company's plans as originally disclosed in April 2013."
That was exhausting. Rubbing up close against those people I have a much better sense of who's what. [Somebody calls Jakafi palliative no matter how many times you put the survival data on the label in front of him, and claims to know about adverse events FDA doesn't know about]
Looks like the "thinks it's smart" money is in "Papers. Good for Geron. Bad for Incyte." mode today.
I still don't know much, but the first little dribble I saw suggests that the MF paper has been sanitized of instances that look too non-protocol-guided. That could turn interesting. Some of the instances where treatment didn't resemble a protocol turned out well in the posters, and Geron partisans will want to keep the ability to talk about those.
Mechanism? "Don't know." It's quite possible that there are several, all controlling part of the story. Plenty of speculation on that in the SA discussion. I particularly liked 'gob smacked at the drop's' comment "I find the imet mechanism of telomerase inhibition simple to grasp/visualize..... but you're saying it may not be real.....but didn't Blackburn get a Nobel for this?" It captures the problem exactly. Nothing wrong therapeutically with having an indefinite mechanism, but uncomfortable for the studio audience.
I seem to recall you scribbling stuff up here in the past. Please play nice now.
All old news. Persistence of liver problems in even a few ET patients is horrible, because the disease is so mild--but that's not a current issue. Gerontiacs claim FDA has declared that liver stuff is a non-issue. What I see is that FDA considers it likely that trial subjects will benefit more from treatment than they suffer, and that IS possible that the drug may be approvable. I came up with a nicely sententious version of FDA's attitude to not-quite-Hy's-Law liver damage: no absolution, but perhaps redemption. (I loved the book on the sociology of surgical training: "Forgive and Remember" If you read it, think of Tefferi and his personal take on how drug trials ought to be done)
No offense meant to dogs, at least.
I have no doubt that the run-up in GERN was related to the NEJM publications. Even old Geroniacs, who already knew everything of substance, view the publication in a good journal as an endorsement.
But INCY is an institutional stock. The first-order influence on supply and demand is portfolio runners (the lowest form of Wall Street life) adjusting how much of various baskets of stocks, defined by their betters, they will hold. The more senior portfolio runners may tweak within the baskets a little. Among these people, there is no sense that GERN and INCY have anything to do with each other (their ignorance may be superior to the supposed 'knowledge' of their betters, but that's another story). The NEJM stuff may have filtered down to them oh, 3 PM or so.
What even the lowliest stockrunner with biotech exposure saw Right Away, though, was the rumor that Jakafi would lose patent protection in two months. I think THAT idiocy was responsible for most of today's drop.
Now, nobody seems sure WHERE that rumor started. There has been a low level of chatter, prompted by Janssen starting the phase 2 and Incyte prepping for a couple of investor conferences, and this just kind of appeared among it. It got picked up by a tout yesterday or the day before and then exploded.
So did someone want to put a spike in INCY to coincide with the GERN publications? Dunno dunno dunno.
And of course, the answer is the same as it is for dogs (or Zen masters)
What concerns me is that this seems to be a move away from the "bread and butter, with maybe some fish eggs once a week" shape of the company. Relative insulation from the volatility of specialty semiconductors has always been one of Diodes' attractions for me. Yeah, not a very big move, and not into extreme specialty stuff, but in a direction that concerns me.
Nobody is being so kind as to give me the full texts ( Not that I'm asking HERE). In the past, the real goodies have been found in funny places like captions of illustrations. So until the paper copy shows up in the local hospital library and I summon the energy to look at it, I won't have much to say. You DO have to read scientific papers carefully, especially where there are serious disputes affected (For any other organic chemists, I particularly recall the Brown-Winstein furball.)
Did you take Phil Pecsok's "Best in the Market" pairs trade? Now THAT would have been idiotic (and self-punishing). And until MedTechBio produces evidence of those numerous treatment-ending infections he keeps talking about in Jakafi users, we'll tentatively dismiss him as...well...someone who has repeatedly told one BIG lie.
Upsizing is kinda implicit in the trial designs, as originally announced. It marks the shift from the dose-finding phase to the therapeutic phase, and is a parallel to the futility evaluation date in a phase 3 trial. From that standpoint it is indeed an optimistic sign. Earlier statements have suggested that Merck, at least, hopes that results from the therapeutic phase 2 trial may be sufficient to convince FDA to allow marketing of an epacasostat combination before [presumably WHILE] a phase 3 registration study is done.
Goes along with MYGN's recent strength. A lot of people re-evaluate at such milestones.
No clear catalyst to produce a corner, but just because of seasonal patterns I wouldn't want to be short Myriad in January.