I understand why you hate AAPL, like IBM it distracts and draws money away from BRK-B. I just don't see it as being a good candidate to short. Valuation-wise, AAPL trades at about 10 times TTM FCFE, paid out about 23% of that as a dividend, and used 71% to buy back stock. Is it any wonder that T&T are buying? Can you blame your fellow investors if they prefer to buy what BRK is currently buying instead of buying BRK?
I don't know how VL breaks it out. If you look at the 13F, various purchases are owned by both WEB, coded as a #4, and NIC, coded as a #11.
I don't understand your reference to me. I've never held gold and have only traded BRK-B intermittently (three times) between 9/28/1998 (first purchase) and 5/7/2012 (last sale). I've actually held BRK-B a total of 2,706 days out of the 4,970 days between those two dates and made an XIRR of 8.9%, which beats, by the way, a single "buy & hold" of 5.5%, over that period. It has been fun and a great learning experience.
Hi hjc. I bailed on my make believe paper trade last Friday because I wanted to lock in the "profit" and I thought that there were too many positives going forward. The April VL report was way too upbeat (the next report is due Friday, July 1) and with T&T buying, I figured the coat tailing wannabe's might mute the downside as well. Good luck with your trade.
hjc, my interest in options doesn't go beyond trying to understand the mechanics of a trade. I've been following your short (AAPL160916P00095000?) and have a question. Why did you pick a strike of 95 instead of 100? I'm still early in the learning process, but it seems to me that purchasing a Put with a strike as close as possible to actual stock price at the time of purchase would maximize the profit (force the biggest loss on the seller) without overpaying?
Probability problems are not my forte, so caveat emptor.
My guess is team #1 (players 1 & 2) should have a 15:4 advantage over team #2 (players 3 & 4), since they own 60,000 of the 700,000 tickets in the pool, whereas team #2 only owns 16,000. I don't believe the odds change during the drawing, but would expect team #1 to yell "Bingo", more often than team #2.
Yeah, that was too fast. Decades ago the company (chemical industry) I worked for gave everyone (salary) a ten year award. Nothing vested immediately, and when it began, it vested in 25% increments over a four year period.
I'm too much of a nervous Nellie to be a gambler even when I'm just goofing around, so I "closed" my fantasy APPL Put (short).
BTO at $2.81, STC at $5.27, 21 days later, for a 87.5% profit. Annualize that, LOL!
I can't take credit for that, it was your idea, not mine.
hjc, I reckon you'e now got a nice profit on your AAPL PUT. Is it time to Sell To Close, or are you going to let it ride?
To judge the judge, you'd have to review the valuation report he used to make his decision. I've seen both extremely optimistic reports (insiders advocating the benefits of a merger) and pessimistic reports (insiders advocating a price existing shareholders should accept, so that they, the insiders, can take the company private).
But hjc, half the fun is in trying to predict what your profit might be, and then seeing if you guessed correctly!
I want to know how much the price of the Put would appreciate if the price of the stock dropped 5%.
If you're curious as to what the inputs to the menu look like, search for:
HP 30b Business Professional Calculator - Black-Scholes Option Pricing.
No, no real interest in shorting IBM or BRK-B. I've only looked at APPL & SPY, and even that is strictly academic. I really don't like doing a Black-Scholes calculation - too many inputs and too much scrolling through the menu on my HP 30b. I'm guessing at Volatility (based on implied volatility) most of the time. I'm in the process of just flipping the autopilot switch and walking away from actively tweaking my portfolio.
My guess is, over the next 100 years, IBM's dividend stream alone, will give Buffy a 6% return on his money.
Note: PYD stands for previous year's dividend.