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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. Message Board

jad9000 451 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Nov 3, 2004
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  • I wasn't replying to BW. Just connecting some dots,including his. They mentioned various ways to fund, none of which implied a secondary - debt, upfront cash payments, etc. They have already signaled a desire for a partner in Asia and any marketing agreement usually comes with upfront cash. The reason they have taken out the $25 million loan from Hercules is to establish a credit history which, in turn, might support bond offering, convertible bond offering or subordinated convertible debenture. Standard operating procedure. We also know that Merck is investing $300 million to develop competition to Iplex. That is risk capital with no guarantee to success. So, how would Merck value Iplex - FDA approved already and no risk. $400 million. $500 million? What is the value of their nebulizer technology? $50 million? $100 million. Clearly, they have valuable assets they can leverage through outright sale, development partnerships (which could also bring upfront cash), etc. They have 120 institutional investors give or take - some of them hedge funds. Hedge funds do private placements all day every day. $90 million is chump change with many of them. If I were them and found myself short of the $90 million I'd float a subordinated convertible debenture with a fixed share price conversion - well above today's share price. When they receive MA in late summer their sp will be way higher than today - and maybe at the $50 level that gets bandied about (who knows). What ever the sp is the debenture will peg a conversion rate way higher than the sp at the time.

  • Hopefully we will see upped valuations from the analysts, who get way more info than we see in an annual report. This should give us a good boost. What will help the most is that so many shared are held by strategic s, insiders and institutions - now around 46.6 million of the 50 million shares issued. What happens if another big investor wants in or existing funds want to hold higher positions? The company signaled that they want to raise another $95 million by year end but not through a secondary. So, no bailout for the shorts who are now around 6.1million shares. How exactly are they going to cover now? Who's going to sell now with marketing authorization on the horizon? A perfect storm shaping up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    mark-to-market losses on our interest rate swaps

    by gk10012001 Feb 24, 2015 5:08 PM

    The best thing that can happen is treading water. There will not be a rate increase this year and likely later in 2016, if at all, as 2016 is an election year and the Fed hates to ess with rates in an election year. The economy is weak, consumption habits in the country have been downsized for decades to come, household debt is rising again, wage inflation is modest and the sequester will continue to reign in government spending. Add to this lower energy costs, rapidly advancing efficiencies coming in energy management and demand and these same lowered costs/demand working into the price of goods and services and we will see negligible inflation for the rest of the decade. In this environment the reits can increase leverage, lower hedging costs and increase net interest income for years to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    mark-to-market losses on our interest rate swaps

    by gk10012001 Feb 24, 2015 5:08 PM

    They bought into the Fed speak and the reduction of monthly MBS/Treasuries buying having a big effect on rates. Well, it did. It sent them into the dumper. They were all 180 degrees out of whack with reality.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I guess Terry should have 25 passports to cover all of his fake identities. Maybe a few more for his Barbie doll wives.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    Terry is drunk again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    CapEx reductions coupled with reduced exploration/development costs will make those hedges extremely profitable, offsetting much of the the lower revenue. Lack of cash outlays for dividends will help shore up their balance sheet or enable firesale purchases of new reserves. They will make it through and they will come out of it stronger and more profitable than before. The current share price is a gift.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    Russia, Brazil (Rosneft, Petrobras) and others are postponing drilling in deep water now. Mexico has put off additional technology upgrades. 4% of global production costs in excess of $85/bbl to get to market. And, Opec has raised forecasts for demand already this year. Average depletion rates are around 6%. Shale is 23% to 49%. As shales depletes, new wells are postponed and other wells deplete at normal rates supply and demand will equalize by late summer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    clownsaythestupidesthings

    by timingiseveryting Feb 28, 2015 2:19 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    He's a moron and pathological liar. What can we expect from such a complete freak?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    I just sent all of your fake ids to Yahoo along with copies of you various screwball statements. Lets see what they do with you now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Terry's Year In Review = Lunacy

    by jad9000 Jan 2, 2015 9:34 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    And a new set of posts from the schizo Terry/clownsaythestupidisthings. He's losing his less than functional mind at light speed. The current fake ID list inow: clownsaythestupidisthings/yearinreview2014/afredbikowsy/ terry_insm/kim_philbee/newagebios/kvmncdd/eastofhgwy1/winkiechantwhenistudy/biotecktruth/blasedp3l/themanfromkolob/chem24_2001/killgallenkill/yousstupid/kinky_boots/jad90000/.fudfabricator3/campfundl/140characters/aminterry/boy_evelyn/kvncmcdthequer/backwardpalm/be_leaguered

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    INSM Reporting

    by ltdobanion Feb 27, 2015 10:29 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    Your concept of material in his are vastly different. He wants to build an Amgen ($20 billion sales).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    After hours announcement of Insider buys

    by zake1 Feb 27, 2015 4:50 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Blueyedcatch is right. $50 is chump change for this company (150,000+ NTM patients in target markets, 125,000+ CF patients in target markets, Iplex revenues in late 2017, a litany of other co-developed products, nebulizer technology, etc). When marketing is authorized the share price will vault to well above this number. At that point they may entertain an offer but not until that point. And, typically for early stage companies in this space, these offers can range from 2x to 8x the share price at the time. They will also then have a fair amount of visibility into the emerging sales pipeline for NTM and CF, new products under development, strategic relationships and partnerships, etc. These will only add to valuation. Lewis will either proceed to build his biotech empire or be paid handsomely to give it up but will not give it up for pennies on the dollar - at a minimum without an earn out attached at a much higher value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    After hours announcement of Insider buys

    by zake1 Feb 27, 2015 4:50 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 28, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    The fact that he opted to exercise them immediately and assume the risk rather than let them sit until the 2023 expiration is quite a statement on his part. Clearly he believes they will be worth a lot more sooner than later. I also think he is looking at potential short term vs long term capital gains taxes should an offer they can't refuse come along.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2015 10:32 PM Flag

    Maybe they are going to "buy another company" with the money. As for corporate transactions, they indicated that they would likely partner with another company in Asia - which would bring upfront cash - and seek to co-develop new products with partners. Maybe that's coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    After hours announcement of Insider buys

    by zake1 Feb 27, 2015 4:50 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2015 7:27 PM Flag

    It is interesting that they choose to buy shares now. Maybe they want to avoid short term capital gains taxes if the company does get bought out within a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    I wonder if ALS will be back on the table?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    Patent expires October, 2017. The short stature market by then will exceed $300 million - which they should capture quickly. Then we get to see just how many other indications they come up with between now and then - and I'm sure there are a lot of them. Shire already is hunting for other indications for Premiplex which we all know is Iplex. They can't do anything without a new deal with the company. Clearly Shire is the best partner for Iplex exploitation. It still is interesting that Merck would dump $300 million into a startup to try to develop a competitor to Iplex.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $19 - surprised earnings announcement (early)

    by jd39souza98 Feb 27, 2015 3:13 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    Well, by regulation they have to get out material information within a short time frame so it may be that they sped up the earnings and annual report and stuck this in. They seem to be loathe to just do a press release like everyone else. Luckily someone on the board was paying attention this morning and posted it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    We are making progress...reason for the runup

    by zake1 Feb 27, 2015 8:08 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    The only thing you're long on is your nose Pinnochio. You lose liar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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