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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

jad9000 214 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 minutes ago Member since: Nov 3, 2004
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  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 9, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    Analysts understand that all that matters is what the FDA deems to be important. And, the FDA believes that the secondary endpoint is what they wanted to see. The results were substantially above what anyone thought was possible in such a short window, even Insm themselves, which makes the results compelling for the FDA and likely the EMEA. Analysts will finish the conference, go back to their offices and over the next few days come out with their opinions. It is hard to imagine that, given the results, they will not be great This also accelerated the time to market substantially. Their estimates are all based on a much longer timeline, which has now been compressed. This alone could add 20% to 40% to their valuation estimates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 9, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Upgrades with explanations as to why should be forthcoming. New analyst coverage likely. Partner announcements in a short period of time. FDA and EU filing announcements close. New institutional buying and increases in share counts for many existing owners. Extended study results along the way. He is laying the foundation for his vision of a strong biotech company that has multiple products using their patented technologies and science. This really is about to be a multi-billion dollar company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The AstraZeneca rumor was for $1B in September

    by justarook04 Apr 8, 2014 2:38 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 8, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    An offer is just that, an offer. But it is premature unless there is an "earn out" clause that allows shareholders to maximize valuation. We now can say with certainty we have the only product available that treats NTM effectively, will be a valuable adjunct to existing products for CF, will be the only product in-market for short stature in a few years and may well be valuable for any number of other applications that have been listed here and are found on various presentations the company has made. The sooner they file with the FDA and the EMEA the better. In the meantime, they also need to announce who they will partner with in markets they don't want to service directly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Done

    by doughcm Apr 8, 2014 11:35 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 8, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    In reality the same seller is the likely the buyer, dropping the bid and ask - then buying or selling into it until there's competition on the buy side. This is classic hedge fund manipulation, likely one the funds that specialize in the biotech space. It's not legal but they don't really care because they know there will never be a penalty. If we're lucky Insm will update their results tomorrow with more positive news and bring new buyers and analysts into the company. If they do this we could also see more upgrades from existing analysts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Done

    by doughcm Apr 8, 2014 11:35 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 8, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    I doubt there are "guys" and suspect one "guy' only - that has deluded himself into believing that he can influence anything with this stock. It is completely driven by hedge funds and institutional investors now who set their HFT trading programs to manipulate the share price to either buy or sell their shares. They are now buyers. If you look at money flow, even when the share price gets hit, the money flow is positive.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Touched $20

    by mike75x5 Apr 8, 2014 10:42 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 8, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Buyers trying to get in coupled with short covering. They ram it down trying to scare up shares and take out stops. Churning and manipulation at its best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Slide 23, Table, Change from Baseline

    by risingedge77 Apr 7, 2014 7:48 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 7, 2014 8:00 PM Flag

    Someone clearly messed up in how they selected the endpoint. Maybe this was a Gupta faux pas? It doesn't matter as it doesn't negate the success of the outcome for many of the patients. Couple this with the outstanding results on the secondary endpoint and we have the only treatment on the planet with this level of success. All of the negative comments are just gibberish meant to obfuscate this fact. And, if you are short, you had better think twice about your position because the steamroller starts picking up speed in a couple of days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 7, 2014 7:49 PM Flag

    They already got their payments so what do they care.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 7, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    Think about this. They clearly were added to the Needham conference very late in the process. They clearly have used their results to be added to the conference. I suspect we will hear that even more participants went "culture negative" over the past couple of weeks and that they reached the Primary endpoint goal a couple of weeks later than expected - but reached it nonetheless. They would not have worked their way into this conference if they did not have something they want to get out to investors. i doubt the FDA cares whether they hit the primary endpoint in 98 days instead of 84 days. And, per another post, the FDA recommends that patients stay on treatment for an entire year for NTM - even if it is "cured". This means that they get a full year of sales for each patient even though they were cured in 84 days, ie. a lot more revenue per patient than previously thought. This is a serious blockbuster product.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rehdvm

    by checksurshorts Apr 6, 2014 12:12 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 7, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    Who's to say it isn't another alias? There are so many its hard to keep track. But, the alias assault over the weekend plus the assault by Rehdvm seem to be coordinated and means the party is over for these characters. We are about to see what we have all been patiently waiting for - a blockbuster product and a breakout share price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Today's price is nothing special

    by chipsthermogrease Apr 2, 2014 3:40 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 6, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    They need to boost the distribution. Constantly raising money but never having it's benefits show up on the bottom line is getting really old.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 5, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Rates aren't going anywhere for a long time. There is absolutely no underlying economic strength without low rates and a rise in rates would eliminate whatever strength there is. Food and energy inflation have sapped household discretionary budgets, housing has flattened out, the is zero growth in inflation adjusted household income, auto sales have flattened out and we are moving away from being a predominantly consumption-based economy. Add to this the lack of savings, miserable labor force participation rates, geopolitical instability and curbed government spending and we are going nowhere of any consequence for the rest of the decade. Reits will thrive in this environment as will their shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    profit taking

    by bugseypug Apr 4, 2014 2:07 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 5, 2014 1:23 AM Flag

    Daily Short Sale Volume

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    profit taking

    by bugseypug Apr 4, 2014 2:07 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 4, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    The volume is manufactured via churning - short, cover, short, cover, short, cover - 40% of todays volume was shorting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool articles taken down??

    by thewanderer50 Apr 1, 2014 9:10 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 2, 2014 12:26 AM Flag

    Understand that there has been a coordinated effort to confuse and frighten potential shareholders and existing shareholders. It may have been institutional buyers and hedge funds or, possibly, one of the big pharmas - or all of the above. We have seen a more than doubling of institutional ownership in the past year or so. Planted articles, innuendo, shorting and other misinformation has been pretty consistent for a number of years in varying degrees. Someone either stands to lose a lot of money or wants to make a lot of money. Greed has no boundaries. But, this little ruse has almost run it's course and the bad behavior is now useless. They will get approved and product will be in-market this at some level - and the sp will continue to ratchet up for years to come. This may well be a Biogen in the making, who gets a valuation in excess of 14x top line revenues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Getting nervous..

    by jmnaj2k2 Apr 1, 2014 1:24 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 1, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    This is exactly why the Feds are looking at HFT - a corrupt practice that creates these bear raids based on absolutely no negative info. As an example, they made a $20 million loan to Insmed and got warrants or options as part of the package. Insmed just knocked a trial out of the box. They will likely make many millions on their options sometime in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool articles taken down??

    by thewanderer50 Apr 1, 2014 9:10 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 1, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    The Motley Fool is sensationalist in their articles but usually lacking in facts. They are a headline operation and should never, never be looked at as anything but entertainment with an occasional fact sprinkled in to garner some credibility.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Mar 31, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    The more "rumors" the better. It just adds fuel to the fire - regardless of te truth. FYI, someone is buying big lots: 14:20:48 $ 19.015 300,000

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If you want to understand why these clowns come out of the woodwork as Insmed sees increasing successes with their trials just look at the current marketplace. Billions of dollars are at stake for a half dozen or more companies with inferior and largely ineffective products being used today. And, when you look at the other indications they feel they may be able to supply the market for, billions more. Big pharma is about to have tens of billions of high-value patented drugs expire. Now they have to deal with lower value but significant revenue producing drugs becoming obsolete compliments of Insmed and their pipeline. This is just starting to get interesting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is going on with the Wedbush analyst?

    by moneynow27 Mar 31, 2014 12:14 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Mar 31, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Good call. In a couple of months you may likely find it was the best call you ever made. Congrats.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

INSM
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