Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Insmed Incorporated Message Board

jad9000 369 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 9 minutes ago Member since: Nov 3, 2004
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • jad9000 jad9000 Aug 16, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    You have to wonder what impact the reintroduction of Iplex in October, 2017 might have on health issues other than short stature. This talks about the performance of amateur athletes. What about people that are physically impaired by a host of other afflictions and issues? Clearly IGF-I is still being studied and tested.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 16, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    Add to this Insmed is developing testing for early identification of NTM that will move people into treatment much quicker. It has been noted on many occasions that NTM is seemingly under reported and often mis-identified.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 16, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Here's the label our resident goofball Terry and his refractory nonsense seems to think the EMA will allow them - "Prescribe only when patient is in hospice or has been given last rites". I wish I was a class action lawyer if Terry has his way. Think about the 110,000 suffering patients that wouldn't be close enough to death's door to qualify for Arikace at just how much they would sue for. And imagine if an insurance company tried to not reimburse. And, finally, imagine how much Insmed could increase the price to then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No CF Generates Much Higher Revenues and Profits

    by jad9000 Aug 9, 2015 10:44 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 16, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    As Terry clearly cannot spell or speak in anything but broken English - and clearly can't add, subtract or multiply - here is the math around focusing on NTM.

    - Number of CF patients equals roughly 80% of NTM patients.
    - Number of CF patients who also suffer from NTM is roughly 20%.
    - Number of competing drugs for CF is four to five
    - Duration of CF treatment days indicated by Insmed is six months per year - quarter on, quarter off
    So we have 80% of the NTM market, of which we get 20% automatically through NTM use
    We get possibly 1/4 of the remaining due to competition
    The estimated price for CF was around $45,000 but due to the on/off regimen only $22,500 per year.
    On the basis of 100,000 CF patients we get:
    $22,500 x 80% of market (Non-NTM population) x 25% (the rest to competitors) x 100,000 = $450 million
    On the basis of 100,000 NTM patients - including 20,000 CF afflicted we get:
    20,000 x $60,000 = $1.2 billion for CF afflicted
    80,000 x $60,000 = $4.8 billion for the rest
    The incremental revenue generated over CF pricing is $15,000 x 100,000, or $1.5 billion plus the same $450 million we would generate through CF sales.
    So, by not selling at lower prices to CF patients, and not also bearing the cost of sales and marketing, we generate in total incremental revenue of $1.95 billion plus millions in savings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Aug 16, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    As more info comes out from the company we see just how great a position we are in. All of the recent results, relevant data around the product, size of market, time to market, availability for sales in France on a limited basis. expansion of CONVERT sites, pricing and much more point to a large global market (As much as 130,000 in just the EU, US and Japan plus annual increases of around 12%). So, the company is staring at an exclusive position in a burgeoning market with no competition and no pricing pressure. What's it worth? Frankly, every day closer to sales means higher valuation. But, in the meantime, we have 4 million shares short and they will game this stock all day every day (200,000 covered in the last two weeks of July.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Utterly Idiotic Arguments Are Now Being Made

    by jad9000 Aug 15, 2015 9:40 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 16, 2015 8:20 AM Flag

    Repost:
    So, here we go with the refractory argument. The new bash is almost laughable. Actually, it is laughable nonsense. By the new basher logic because Arikace has cured the worst of the worst cases they will be restricted from curing patients less sick. Think about this logic - the patients aren't sick enough to be cured. Let's wait until they are on death's door and then we'll cure them. To say that's completely nuts is an understatement. From the EMA standpoint, they would have to take the position that patients should be kept on less effective and unapproved treatments for potentially years until they are either dead or qualify for the cure. Who comes up with stuff? Well, we know the answer to that one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 15, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    Here's the label Terry and his refractory nonsense seems to think the EMA will allow them - "Prescribe only when patient in in hospice or has been given last rites". I wish I was a class action lawyer if Terry has his way. Think about the 110,000 suffering patients that wouldn't be close enough to death's door to qualify for Arikace at just how much they would sue for.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Institutional Holdings

    by insmhistorian Aug 15, 2015 1:23 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 15, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    All those new investors and investors adding to their positions clearly were not smart enough to read Terry's posts and run for the hills. Given the fact that close to 97% of all the shares, or around 64 million total, are held by institutions, the option pool, option holders, strategic investors and insiders there are only around 2.4 million shares left that are owned by retail investors. It will be interesting to see how the shorts cover 4 million shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Whiting Refinery

    by hulcal Aug 14, 2015 11:52 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 15, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    They said yesterday that if they have to rebuild the whole unit it could take way more than one or two months. At a minimum, NTI will be printing money this quarter and possibly next. Then, we get large increases in processing capacity, especially for Canadian crude. More output, less feedstock costs equals higher distributions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So, here we go with the refractory argument. The new bash is almost laughable. Actually, it is laughable nonsense. By the new basher logic because Arikace has cured the worst of the worst cases they will be restricted from curing patients less sick. Think about this logic - the patients aren't sick enough to be cured. Let's wait until they are on death's door and then we'll cure them. To say that's completely nuts is an understatement. From the EMA standpoint, they would have to take the position that patients should be kept on less effective and unapproved treatments for potentially years until they are either dead or qualify for the cure. Who comes up with stuff? Well, we know the answer to that one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Whiting Refinery

    by hulcal Aug 14, 2015 11:52 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 14, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Doesn't matter. Gas prices are already up $.50 in the midwest and climbing. Between their stations and the vaulting spread between production expense and sales prices their margins are exploding for both this and likely part of next quarter. Look for $1.40 distribution or more for this quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 14, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    As it appeared most, if not all, of the questions were related to CF and they decide to focus on NTM can they do this along two different timelines or are the two bound together? I think WL indicated they could split them but not sure. If so, given few if any questions regarding NTM, can it move much faster?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 9:39 PM Flag

    BTW, institutional ownership is now up to 88.4% with 820,000 shares added last quarter. Add that to the option pool, strategics and insiders and the combined is now pushing 97% of total shares issued.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    You can never lose money selling shares. I personally think we are in a short covering and/or accumulation regimen where they will bleed out shares at graduated levels until they start losing money and then take it up to the next level and do it again - over and over and over. The more traders start to emulate our share acquirer/short cover-er the quicker they will move on to the next level. So, I hope everyone does the same.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 9:18 PM Flag

    One other little fact. Blackrock now owns around $100 million of Insmed's stock, including a new purchase by Blackrock Japan last quarter. Speaking of sharks, these guys wrote the book. They aren't going to be shy about getting their return on investment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    Citi knows exactly what is going on, as do all the other big owners. They have a battery of analysts that crunch numbers all day and every day. Why were just a few analysts on the quarterly call? Because the rest were already up to speed. And, they likely know the games that are being played now with the stock. As for valuation, they have zero head-to-head competition, an identified market in the range of 130,000 afflicted in just three market clusters (EU, US, Japan), and a $60 thousand price tag. This, by any measure , constitutes is a multi-billion dollar product. We are in the middle of a game we don't understand.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA Approval Prospects

    by tycint Aug 13, 2015 7:43 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 8:15 PM Flag

    I also do not know what the logic is for piling unrequired and unrequested data into the application when, in fact, the EMA specifically requested that Insmed apply for this NTM approval due to a large need and no approved product. It also appears that the questions they did have centered around CF and not NTM. And now we have our first paying patient in-system, continued positive trial data and a hundred CONVERT facilities about to be online. They were also pretty clear that they are now putting CF on the back burner which, from a sheer financial standpoint, makes way more sense due to huge pricing variances. I also believe that, as almost 88% of our shares are owned by institutions (with very large hedge funds in the mix), they will begin pushing on the company big time for either some liquidity event by the company or will start shopping it around themselves. These folks are in it for the money and are not a bunch of empire builders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    The short volume ratio today was 59.5%. The average over the past three days is around 55%. Not a lot of selling but a lot of shorting to keep the price from moving up in these dog days of low volume, summer trading. Apparently the "analysts" are all at The Reef with their hedge fund buddies..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can we finish green today?

    by malakacrocka Aug 13, 2015 10:56 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    The Senate is about to vote to allow exports of crude. When it does pipeline capacity will be stretched and transportation costs will rise. ETP will be a tremendous beneficiary of this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Aug 13, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    Repost:
    Now we know the important info. All of the recent results, relevant data around the product, size of market, time to market, availability for sales in France on a limited basis. expansion of CONVERT sites, pricing and much more point to a large global market (As much as 130,000 in just the EU, US and Japan plus annual increases of around 12%). So, the company is staring at an exclusive position in a burgeoning market with no competition and no pricing pressure. What's it worth? Frankly, every day closer to sales means higher valuation. But, in the meantime, we have 4 million shares short and they will game this stock all day every day (200,000 covered in the last two weeks of July.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

INSM
23.39-1.05(-4.30%)Sep 1 4:00 PMEDT