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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

jad9000 484 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Nov 3, 2004
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  • Our resident schizo screwball and amateur basher is about to be steamrolled by the facts. It will be fun to watch him now claim he covered at the bottom and proclaim how brilliant a "trader" he is. Idiot extraordinaire.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Extraordinary EMEA response to Insmed...

    by jsblvbjb Oct 1, 2014 3:55 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 3, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    Back to the top. Terry the lying freak.is blathering again.
    They can file in the US under Subpart H as soon as the 6 month endpoint data are in hand and market to the entire NTM population in the US. This is good news indeed. Usually, Subpart H filings are decided based on a surrogate endpoint, but what could be more indicative of clinical benefit than eradication of the mycobacterium?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    someone knows something why this is booming

    by angel0612000 Oct 2, 2014 5:59 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 3, 2014 7:30 AM Flag

    Catching up to the move in ETE and 4 years of poor performance. Fracking has been escalating along with production. Pipelines are the easiest, safest and cheapest way to get the crude to market. ETP has underperformed most other pipeline companies. When KMP/KMR did their reverse mergers it woke up a lot of people to what was undervalued assets across the board. This is catch-up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Tax Plan

    by durrett.scott Sep 30, 2014 6:17 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 2, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    Socialism is about to be killed off in this country as the Dems lose the Senate and the courts continue to rip down executive order after executive order. Next to get trashed is getting subsidies through the Federal exchange, which is illegal by law. SCOTUS will take the case and take the opportunity to gut Obamacare. And the illegal and unconstitutional acts will begin to be overturned like dominos. With his consigliere Holder out hiding the truth will be much harder. There will be little left of Obama's grand plan when he tucks his tail between his legs on the way out of Washington -with Nixon-like numbers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Trading 101

    by terry_insm Sep 18, 2014 8:29 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 2, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Pretty funny just how badly timed Terry the moron's post is. This is the mark of a complete idiot. Current, we're up $.59 and climbing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Oct 2, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    You know you're getting gamed when rates drop as much as yesterday and we barely recover from the big drop we've seen. Today, rates are down again, further increasing book value for every reit and we give back yesterday's gains. We may be looking at a 10 year rate of 2.30% or less by year end, which equates to a gain of between 10% and 15% on reit bv's, excluding all the money they are piling up by keeping from profits that they're using to offset losses last year. I'll guess that by year end they will show a bv increase of 25% to 35% over the end of Q2. They only question is whether the share price actually reflects it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Extraordinary EMEA response to Insmed...

    by jsblvbjb Oct 1, 2014 3:55 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 2, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Back to the top.
    Furthermore, FDA has had face-to-face meetings with INSM recently, coming into a harmony on the path forward to NTM approval that doesn't limit any group of NTM patients, and meaning Insmed won't have to run the more expensive trial (saving our shareholders approximately 35 million bucks!)
    pianoman

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Extraordinary EMEA response to Insmed...

    by jsblvbjb Oct 1, 2014 3:55 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 2, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    Back to the top. Terry the lying freak.is blathering again.
    They can file in the US under Subpart H as soon as the 6 month endpoint data are in hand and market to the entire NTM population in the US. This is good news indeed. Usually, Subpart H filings are decided based on a surrogate endpoint, but what could be more indicative of clinical benefit than eradication of the mycobacterium?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Extraordinary EMEA response to Insmed...

    by jsblvbjb Oct 1, 2014 3:55 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 1, 2014 10:10 PM Flag

    To the top:
    They can file in the US under Subpart H as soon as the 6 month endpoint data are in hand and market to the entire NTM population in the US. This is good news indeed. Usually, Subpart H filings are decided based on a surrogate endpoint, but what could be more indicative of clinical benefit than eradication of the mycobacterium?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Extraordinary EMEA response to Insmed...

    by jsblvbjb Oct 1, 2014 3:55 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 1, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    To the top:
    Furthermore, FDA has had face-to-face meetings with INSM recently, coming into a harmony on the path forward to NTM approval that doesn't limit any group of NTM patients, and meaning Insmed won't have to run the more expensive trial (saving our shareholders approximately 35 million bucks!)
    pianoman

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Extraordinary EMEA response to Insmed...

    by jsblvbjb Oct 1, 2014 3:55 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 1, 2014 10:06 PM Flag

    To the top:
    Insmed per Lewis was encouraged to file for NTM approval "across" the indication, not just refractory as in the USA's targeted phase 3 trial. Reason for the difference was the success of the CF trial combined with the NTM data. US FDA appears to be very limited in its scope for granting approvals, but Insmed should have grand success in getting the FDA approval after new data is generated. So the revenues aren't going to be limited in the EU to the refractory population, meaning Lewis just gave the green light for WS to load the boat. With the application being filed by YE, there's no reason to think Insmed would ever consider a buy-out offer for anything within 10x the current price, simply based on expected revenue.
    pianoman

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another big disappointment.

    by blasedp3l Oct 1, 2014 2:50 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 1, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    Anyone want to guess what third world country this illiterate moron is from.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What a bunch of jerks

    by toy_yoda2014 Oct 1, 2014 5:47 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 1, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    Then leave Terry.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    i dont care about terry

    by hubby_14508 Oct 1, 2014 9:46 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 1, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Idiot.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    i dont care about terry

    by hubby_14508 Oct 1, 2014 9:46 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Oct 1, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Idiot.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Patient pop

    by tjones9234 Sep 30, 2014 11:24 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Sep 30, 2014 11:37 PM Flag

    Give or take some, the total identified patient population for NTM/CF seems to be between 150,000 and 200,000 - growing at about 8% per year. Insmed will own the NTM group (about half the total), will likely get the 13,000 who have both afflictions and get at least a third of the remaining CF patients. This adds up to around 110,000 to 125,000 patients worldwide. At $50,000 each we're talking $6.25 billion potential sales. If we grab a third of this we're still looking at a couple of billion dollars, twelve billion in valuation and a share price of over $200. Then toss in Iplex, potential product partnerships and other uses of patented products and who knows.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not sure why this was deleted??

    by insmhistorian Sep 29, 2014 7:21 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Sep 30, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    Doing a little math, 13% of CF patients also suffer from NTM. So, 13% of the 70,000 CF afflicted in 2009 would likely use Arikace as it works on both. That's 9,100 CF/NTM patients times around a 40% increase over the last five years - or around 12,700 out of the box at $50,000 per year. That equals around $635 million annually in sales. Then we have the rest of the CF and NTM marketplace. And, these numbers are also increasing by around 8% per year. Suffice it to say Insmed is worth way, way more than the current share price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not sure why this was deleted??

    by insmhistorian Sep 29, 2014 7:21 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Sep 30, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    The only difference is I tossed out the 55,000 shares that showed up after hours, so it looked to me like a 15% sample size which, statistically, is pretty good. I also think the mm is tossing in chunks of shares that were transacted through direct sales and not through normal market transactions. So, what the real market based buy/sell really looks like is, in my opinion, well below the numbers we see.

  • Reply to

    Not sure why this was deleted??

    by insmhistorian Sep 29, 2014 7:21 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Sep 30, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    Again, as I've stated, its incomplete but a good sample. The ratio today was 68.3%, inline with the level of decline we saw all caused by excessive shorting. It may not be perfect but usually coincides with the price action pretty often.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not sure why this was deleted??

    by insmhistorian Sep 29, 2014 7:21 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Sep 30, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    The average duration of treatment per the NTM website stated one to two years. Some will be cured in 24 weeks, others much longer. TOBI (for CF) is priced at around $43,000 per year and is, in fact, inferior to Arikace. So, I just took the TOBI price and added 20% for duration of treatment (slightly over a year) and superiority of product (1x per day, no on/off cycles needed) - which got me to the $50,000 level. I assumed it will price about the same as TOBI for CF. However, as many CF patients also suffer from NTM, this may be underestimated. Why would someone prescribe $43,000 for TOBI and then another $43,000 for NTM /Arikace in the same patient? I assume they will prescribe Arikace for CF patients that also suffer from NTM. I would speculate this may affect pricing for Arikace and push it up but we'll know that soon enough.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

INSM
13.91+0.28(+2.05%)Oct 22 4:00 PMEDT

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