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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

jad9000 215 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 23 minutes ago Member since: Nov 3, 2004
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  • Reply to

    FDA discussions will include . . .

    by rehdvm2004 Apr 9, 2014 12:24 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 9, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    So, you believe that the liposome - that is owned by Insmed - is the key asset and that it can be coupled with any number of products to produce positive results for a myriad of diseases and inflictions. Given this is true, you have just opened up hundreds of potential partnerships and billions of potential dollars with very little investment required by the company, ie. exceedingly high profits, much like licensing revenue in the tech/software business. You just made the case for a gold rush from partnerships. Thx for formulating this scenario which is far larger and more lucrative than most were thinking.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Details from 4th Qtr press release part 1

    by justarook04 Mar 6, 2014 8:02 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Mar 6, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    This is not an over reaction. This is shorts reacting to getting ruined in a couple of weeks. Per the release: "In the near term we plan to report top-line results from our phase 2 clinical trial of ARIKAYCE to treat NTM lung infections. Following the release of these data, we expect to have discussions with regulatory authorities in the U.S. and Europe regarding a path forward to filing for approval. In the interim, we have initiated a comprehensive education campaign to raise awareness of NTM and to increase accurate and early diagnosis," added Mr. Lewis. "It is our goal to be the leader in this globally uncontested orphan disease market."
    Does anyone think they will initiate discussions without positive results? Does anyone think they actually doing an "educational" program (translation - this is a pre-sales program) and does anyone think they would state their goal to own NTM if results weren't supportive. This isn't that tough to read. It's not even between the lines anymore.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Excess of net cash

    by dancingbear2412 Feb 27, 2014 7:26 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2014 7:48 AM Flag

    They are clowns. All that matters with MLPs is distributable cash flow - which is well above estimates.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Excess of net cash

    by dancingbear2412 Feb 27, 2014 7:26 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 27, 2014 7:42 AM Flag

    And, they probably had another $10 million of legal costs and other costs related to closing the Berry deal. So, without this their cash would have been over $41 million positive. Now, with both oil and gas way higher on average in Q1 expect this number to grow substantiailly again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Truly a great data read-out!

    by jsblvbjb Mar 30, 2014 12:48 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Mar 30, 2014 9:21 PM Flag

    I doubt very seriously whether they would even consider $45. Looking at their last presentation they have a long list of potential indications, speed to market, lack of any competition to drive down pricing, speed to cure (eliminating over a year of use of other drugs guaranteeing a very premium price and premium profits) and, not discussed, the net present value of Iplex ($225 million market including inflation and, again, no competition for short stature). This is a $4 to $5 billion net present value company today - or somewhere between $100 and $125 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    this thing is a dog

    by the_spaniard_ii Mar 11, 2014 9:51 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Mar 11, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Cramer may well be the world's best contrary indicator as he constantly shills for his hedge fund buddies. Short interest s way, way over any rational level as the take out value of Linn is well over $50 per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool articles taken down??

    by thewanderer50 Apr 1, 2014 9:10 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 1, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    The Motley Fool is sensationalist in their articles but usually lacking in facts. They are a headline operation and should never, never be looked at as anything but entertainment with an occasional fact sprinkled in to garner some credibility.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool articles taken down??

    by thewanderer50 Apr 1, 2014 9:10 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 2, 2014 12:26 AM Flag

    Understand that there has been a coordinated effort to confuse and frighten potential shareholders and existing shareholders. It may have been institutional buyers and hedge funds or, possibly, one of the big pharmas - or all of the above. We have seen a more than doubling of institutional ownership in the past year or so. Planted articles, innuendo, shorting and other misinformation has been pretty consistent for a number of years in varying degrees. Someone either stands to lose a lot of money or wants to make a lot of money. Greed has no boundaries. But, this little ruse has almost run it's course and the bad behavior is now useless. They will get approved and product will be in-market this at some level - and the sp will continue to ratchet up for years to come. This may well be a Biogen in the making, who gets a valuation in excess of 14x top line revenues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Barclays say's

    by helmman Jan 28, 2014 12:39 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Jan 28, 2014 11:28 PM Flag

    So, Brazil is about to uncork huge spending in the offshore fields, Mexico just signed a number of deals with foreign companies to ramp up their gulf production, the South China Sea is about to open up, a number of offshore African fields are about to get production going, the Arctic is about to get going, Cuba is about to start a production cycle and Israel is about to launch offshore production. Where, exactly, are all of these rigs going to come from? Barclays has their heads up their butts.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    WHAT GIVES?

    by azcactus737 Mar 6, 2014 1:08 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Mar 6, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Short interest rose by 40% in the last two week period published. A very heavy bet was placed that NYMT's numbers would be bad. They screwed up big time. Now they need downgrades to help them to get out from under their bad bets. Voila! Wall Street corruption at its best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 5, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Rates aren't going anywhere for a long time. There is absolutely no underlying economic strength without low rates and a rise in rates would eliminate whatever strength there is. Food and energy inflation have sapped household discretionary budgets, housing has flattened out, the is zero growth in inflation adjusted household income, auto sales have flattened out and we are moving away from being a predominantly consumption-based economy. Add to this the lack of savings, miserable labor force participation rates, geopolitical instability and curbed government spending and we are going nowhere of any consequence for the rest of the decade. Reits will thrive in this environment as will their shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Partners pursuing INSM?

    by mike75x5 Apr 9, 2014 8:59 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 9, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    Partnerships with big pharma would be interesting, especially if they are seeking to protect products that are already in-market but marginally effective. Blending these products with the liposome technology afforded by Insmed would give them not only the ability to protect their sales but, potentially, an ability to extend their patents as well. Win, win. I doubt that we really understand how many ways Insmed can make money leveraging their technology/science and corresponding IP. But, suffice it to say, it's a lot of money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    the real concern

    by zake1 Mar 6, 2014 2:49 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Mar 6, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    It takes between 3 to 6 months to begin the recruiting process for someone like this, interview all of the prospects and eventually make offers. Then negotiations on salary and stock compensation and, finally, a hire. This appointment was a very long time in the making, coinciding with a desire for expedited and concurrent multi-use approvals.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Partners pursuing INSM?

    by mike75x5 Apr 9, 2014 8:59 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 9, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    Clearly I don't fit on this board. I spent most of my career in Silicon Valley so when I hear all the experts and their opinions I just chuckle. At some point it is just common sense. There is no product in-market that's approved for NTM, both the FDA and EMEA want one, Insmed has now proven efficacy against the disease - including cure, the potential market may be couple of hundred thousand per year, per the FDA they want a full year on the product regardless of cure, the current price point seems to be $36,000 per quarter (I think), at half the known patient user potential it is a $144,000 x 100,000 or $14 billion, at 50,000 patients it becomes $7 billion and at two quarters instead of 4 quarters and 50,000 patients we hit $3.5 billion. Taking the lowest number here and the low end multiple of sales in the biotech market, 6x, this is a $21 billion valuation company. Even at $36,000 per year we're talking about a $10 billion valuation or $250 per share. Add in CF and short stature and we're back up to $15 to $20 billion valuation. We've also pretty much run out of any downside risk.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 9, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    I think the controversy was more the result of the primary versus secondary endpoint issue. But, the presentation was used to clarify this as it was then made clear that the FDA wanted the secondary as the primary in the first place. And, the primary wasn't very well constructed as it had no flexibility and gave a pretty false impression of results until clarified in the presentation. If Gupta had a role in this it may well have hastened her demise. As an emerging biotech they can ill afford problems due to bad endpoint decisions in something as critical as a phase 2 trial. But it's over now, the perceptions have been corrected and they will now work their way into analyst projections. I believe they will be selling product before the end of the year, greatly accelerating there time to market and corresponding positive cash flow within a year or so.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Touched $20

    by mike75x5 Apr 8, 2014 10:42 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Apr 8, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Buyers trying to get in coupled with short covering. They ram it down trying to scare up shares and take out stops. Churning and manipulation at its best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jad9000 jad9000 Apr 9, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Upgrades with explanations as to why should be forthcoming. New analyst coverage likely. Partner announcements in a short period of time. FDA and EU filing announcements close. New institutional buying and increases in share counts for many existing owners. Extended study results along the way. He is laying the foundation for his vision of a strong biotech company that has multiple products using their patented technologies and science. This really is about to be a multi-billion dollar company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If YOU faced a six billion drop in revenue ...

    by fudfighter3 Feb 15, 2014 2:37 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 15, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    Given no competition to cause price competition and the current tax loss carry forward I would estimate much higher. Biogen Idec now trades at 14.5 x sales - well above the 2.5 x sales you indicated. On this basis alone, even if sales were only $500 million and given likely higher gross margins, anything under a $7.25 billion value would be accretive to Biogen's valuation. Assuming a 15% annual discount over, say, four years Insm would be discounted by 48% for a net current value of about $93/share. At $1 billion in sales this rises to $186/share and if it occurs in a year make it a little over $220/share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Good time to sell this now..

    by bt2888 Mar 5, 2014 12:31 PM
    jad9000 jad9000 Mar 8, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    The housing market is flatlined, household income is flatlined, new job creation is half of what is needed to get even with new entrants to the job market, global economies are weak, Russia is threatening Eastern Europe, Syria is a train wreck, Iran is a bigger wreck, China is threatening in the South China Sea, Obamacare is a disaster, long term unemployed are reclassifying themselves as in the job market as opposed to not looking - driving up total unemployment, draught is driving up food prices, gas prices are rising, loan demand is weak, 3 million college grads are about to hit the labor market, and on, and on, and on. The ten year will be lucky to exceed 3% in a year. Per Bill Gross - "If you want to trust one thing and one things only, trust that once QE is gone and the policy rate becomes the focus, the fed funds will then stay lower than expected for a long, long time," he said.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Figure - no shares available, no volume and

    by justarook04 Feb 10, 2014 10:15 AM
    jad9000 jad9000 Feb 10, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    You can't blame investors for wanting to buy in cheap. You can blame the lack of rules and enforcement around HFT and shorting as well as the lack of oversight of the market maker cadre. This being said, there are no shares for sale and this churning - selling back and forth to themselves to lower the price - is all about buying and not selling. This spring is really tightly wound and 3.4 million shorted shares will eventually have to be covered. As only around 5.2 million shares are currently held by retail investors - most of them by hard core owners - we will see a rocket take off at some point.

    Sentiment: Buy

INSM
12.63+0.06(+0.48%)3:01 PMEDT

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