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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

jagan1961 21672 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 32 minutes ago Member since: Oct 31, 1999
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  • jagan1961 jagan1961 1 hour 32 minutes ago Flag

    Their investment is only 650 MLN. Above their 350 MLN prefered stands the Unsecured Note holders 800 MLN in all.

    They will have to protect their 350 MLN. It all depends how they package, they will have to come with an offer present it to the court for a possible buyout.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SHORT SQUEEZE

    by j_ktttees 5 hours ago
    jagan1961 jagan1961 4 hours ago Flag

    I was initially upbeat when I saw 1.3 BLN equity, however after going thru Qtr reports, realized this is a very risky play and got out. Not worth the risk when the prefereds are going 1.5 cents on the $

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • BBPPQ .37-..3930 - it is manipulated with low volume.

    Common units will be extremely diluted even if any value is given. One should buy preferreds and align themselves with EIG's interest.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 6 hours ago Flag

    tax: If you go indepth their financials you will know where they stand. There is a great opportunity even now to switch from Commons to Prefereds. You will be better off by aligning yourself with Big boy (EIG).

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 7 hours ago Flag

    Unless they have been engaged to look "potential acquirer"

    Given the NG prices where they are today very difficult to find a buyer for full valuation, unless the acquirer feels that in a years time it will be $4-5. I'm going to buy UGAZ and wait it out.
    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Musical Chairs and BBEP holders lost

    by zooplankton200 May 26, 2016 3:46 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 18 hours ago Flag

    Initially my assumption was @50 they could make money, but NO, it @60 with the current hedges. They are losing money @15-20 MLN $ per month.

    I was thinking may be EIG will buy common units, but no way given the Financial mess they are in right now.

    I think the whole Common units buy is from retail and short covering, JMHO!

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 18 hours ago Flag

    Donna : It is really horrific to see how these minor O&G players are going to come out. Bonds @20 cents may not get the beating but Common units and preferreds are gone down the drain.

    They are not enhancing production too. One would buy UGAZ and wait it out, once the production stalls the Gas price will start moving upwards of $5+ by 2017. Unsure whether VNR shareholders will benefit from that type of pricing.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 18 hours ago Flag

    Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, increased to $169 million in 4Q15, 8.2% higher than 3Q15, despite lower realized oil and NGL prices. 2015 Adjusted EBITDA of $636.8 million (including acquisition and integration costs of $12.6 million and restructuring costs of $5 million) was in line with guidance.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 19 hours ago Flag

    1.2 BLN is the Credit Line
    650 Mln EIG Senior Secured
    775 Mln 2020/22 Senior Notes
    200 MLN prfds
    350 MLN EIG prefereds
    = 3.2 BLN in all

    EIG Secured Note + Bank Debt is going to be intact - 2 BLN

    1.2 BLN of other Debt can only be restructured. 50% cut to notes is feasible and conversion of Prefereds into equity is the only way forward for them.

    Where do you get the EBITDA amounts it is around $600 MLN+

    Hedges value is only 300 MLN as at 31st March 2016

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Look at VNR Credit redetermination

    by jagan1961 20 hours ago
    jagan1961 jagan1961 19 hours ago Flag

    One advantage with BBEP is more into Oil than NG/NGLs and they have a 2016/7 almost 75% hedged north of 80.

    I've been very consistent on the Bond holders - From 750+ MLN they will have to bring it down, that is why I said 50% haircut is going to happen. BBEP can issue a Senior Secured Notes in lieu of the current Unsecured, when it is @10-12 cents, 50 cents on the $ is helluva good.

    I did a deeper analysis and noticed if they get $60 per bbl for the remaining Unhedged BBLs then they will scrap through. That is why if they can take 50% off of the Debt and Convert the Prefereds (550 MLN into equity) then they eliminate around $90 MLN in interest costs, that is very crucial.

    Without this conversion (unless Oil creeps back to 75-80) they can't manage.

    With regard to Prefereds, EIG Series "B" and BBPPQ (Series "A") are on the same league and ranks equal. EIG is having complete control and power, that is why aligning your interest with them will benefit. Under worst case scenario everything will go away, given the current conditions, that seems to be best assessment.

    Just my 2 cents!

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Despite paying up substantial amount of money (250 MLN+ after their stack sale proceeds) banks reduced big time their Borrowing base.

    It is not that good folks, going to be pretty ugly for marginal players.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 20 hours ago Flag

    What private equity? When the Bonds are trading at 20 cents on the $, I don't think anyone will step in to invest in any form.

    Owning anything other than the Bonds is NOT worth it. Prefereds and Common units are gone.

    I suspect they should sell the company and move on, FWIW.

    Bond holders can collect few crumbs after paying Bank loans. Filing Ch 11 won't do any good.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Musical Chairs and BBEP holders lost

    by zooplankton200 May 26, 2016 3:46 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 20 hours ago Flag

    I don't think the Judges will not appoint a Committee, when they see a substantial equity even though we all know it is all more of Reserve based Equity and currently do not have a cash value.

    I went back and reviewed both FY 2015 and Q-1 2016 and even with the hedging @60 $ per bbl they should be able to cover 100% of the expenses.. At these prices @50 Per bbl they losing 500 K per day (15 MLN per month - 45 MLN per qtr).

    If they cut the 550 MLN prefereds + eliminate 400 mln of Debt (they should be able to save 80 MLN $ in savings). With the Future hedges at around $60, they should be able to make enough to take care of everyone.

    One should buy Bonds or prefereds, and common units will be extremely diluted and you have an issue with CODI too,

    @40-50 cents people should grab Prefereds and stay in line with EIG.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • If this is a quick one,

    Debt holders agree to take a 50% hair cut on their Debt (2020/22 bonds) and the get a senior Secured Note in lieu. VNR slightly in a better shape, could give 68% value for its note holders for a Senior Secured note.

    EIG converts its preferred and series 'A' Prefereds to either equity or Debt at 50% of its value. if this is equity then you are looking at a massive % of its existing equity given to preferred holders in lieu.

    In the above scenario no one know what would be the CODI outcome. This will be pretty quick to come out BK.

    In the 2nd scenario, if the Debt Holders plays hardball, then the Judge will appoint a Creditors Committee and an Equity Committee, since as at March 31 Qtr, they showed Positive equity. This will drag much longer, since satisfying both the groups will be much harder and prolong bigtime. Equity holders has nothing to lose, the Debt holders has everything to lose in a prolonged battle.

    It is going to be very interesting.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Musical Chairs and BBEP holders lost

    by zooplankton200 May 26, 2016 3:46 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 23 hours ago Flag

    dig: I agree with you, equity will get something, however one needs to get Prefered shares. In my opinion EIG 'B' and BBPPQ are of the same stature. Always good to be on the side of a major player, you can't buy 'B' prefereds but being in 'A' you are aligning with their interest.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Musical Chairs and BBEP holders lost

    by zooplankton200 May 26, 2016 3:46 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 23 hours ago Flag

    zoop: I;ve been thru few bk's. When they show Positive equity, the Judge (whoever is the Federal guy) will appoint an Equity committee. They showed 1.3 BLN equity.

    As for as preferreds, EIG 'B' class and 'A' rank Pari Passu and EIG is not going to walk with a 350 MLN loss.

    Let us wait and see, we don't know who owns the Majority of the Debt, I'm pretty the Management is already in discussions with them.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 26, 2016 3:03 PM Flag

    Major debt is owned Debt Funds and they don't want to be associated with Equity unless it is under Ch 7 /liquidation. From what I could see, these folks already made arrangement for some sort of agreement with major holders, we don't know who owns bunch of them. Did EIG again in play and purchased this debt @10-15 cents? Don't know, there were lots of trades that time, now the volume is nil.

    I still feel for individuals the Preferreds are the way to go, @below 2 cents on the $, you won't be losing much lot to gain and being aligned with EIG's interest you are pretty safe JMHO!

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Prefered shares

    by jagan1961 May 26, 2016 1:10 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 26, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    Series A Preferred Unit and Series B Preferred Unit Allocations . - continued
    (A) Income of the Partnership attributable to the issuance by the Partnership of a Series A Preferred Unit or a Series B Preferred Unit for an amount in excess of the Stated Series A Liquidation Preference or the Stated Series B Liquidation Preference, respectively, shall be allocated to the holders of Common Units in accordance with their respective Percentage Interests.



    (B) Net Termination Gain, if any, for the taxable period (or, to the extent necessary, items of income or gain for the taxable period) shall be allocated to each holder of Series A Preferred Units and Series B Preferred Units, in proportion to, and to the extent of, an amount equal to the excess, if any, of (x) the Stated Series A Liquidation Preference with respect to such holder’s Series A Preferred Units and the Stated Series B Liquidation Preference with respect to such holder’s Series B Preferred Units, over (y) such holder’s existing Capital Account balance in respect of its Series A Preferred Units or its Series B Preferred Units, respectively, until the Capital Account balance of each such holder in respect of its Series A Preferred Units or Series B Preferred Units is equal to the Stated Series A Liquidation Preference or the Stated Series B Liquidation Preference, respectively, in respect of such Series A Preferred Units or Series B Preferred Units.

    ..conted

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I aint selling till its 1.50

    by taxresolutionservices May 26, 2016 1:11 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 26, 2016 1:39 PM Flag

    It might go up, however as a safety net, one should buy as much as Prefereds and be in line with EIG.

    A 40 K prefereds @50 cents will cost $20 K, will get you a Fixed FV of $1 MLN prefereds. That is the safest way. As I said you need to buy it at the ASK and need not worry at all about your investments, due to your interest are aligned with EIG's interest.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 by jagan1961 May 26, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    One needs to look at the indenture Series 'A' and Series 'B' prefereds

    Series 'A' - BBPPQ - 8 MLN issued @25 = 200 MLN
    Series 'B' - Private placement with EIG - Convertible - Oustanding amount $365 MLN

    These 2 prefereds except the convertible part, rank pari passu.

    As you all know EIG is in the drivers seat to steer and they won't take a hit on any of their investments and they will protect it. It is very important for the individuals to read the Prefered indenture document and make an informed decision.

    Always it is good to be on the side of the BIG BOYZ, a lesson I learned through WAMU bankruptcy. I came out unscathed in that BK, by buying Jr. Debt (Prefered shares) and got my money back.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

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