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Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) Message Board

jagan1961 1804 posts  |  Last Activity: May 25, 2015 1:59 PM Member since: Oct 31, 1999
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  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 25, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    end2war: I agree to most of your opinion. However look at the languishing share PPS. That tells you something more. There are 2 sides to everything, one we longs feel that is a billon $ asset, they paid or NVS sold for 3 MLN Shares, so it is worth what they actually paid. Even the same thing goes with Roche's portfolio acquistion, why would they sell for a puny amount?

    Time will tell. We are still a long way to go. I've extended my time horizon for 2 full years now, till May 2017, by which time we should have a marketable product.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    how to get approved to buy options ???

    by mr_red_rover May 22, 2015 7:52 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 24, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Other issue with the Options is the Depth of the Options market. You can't exit out, if you want to.

    As long as there are 16 MLN shorts unless there is a Huge Blow out news (like a Buyout / 100% FC) there is no way they will take this up. They will do all the MOMO plays till they cover most of their positions. They will frustrate most of the Individual longs as well the Institutional longs. For Institutions it is another stock, they will sell and go to something else.

    For many of us, we see a great potential here and know in a 1 -2 years time this will be a 10 X stock from here.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    how to get approved to buy options ???

    by mr_red_rover May 22, 2015 7:52 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 23, 2015 10:21 PM Flag

    Morover ANZILO's timelines are NOT WRITTEN IN STONE! Current 3 mg/4 mg result issue is a case in point. I do expect numerous time extensions and lapses due to varying reasons.

    The stock will definitely move up, however it has plenty of time before it does the move.

    You never know what the Wallstreet cro oks will do, however we need to protect our money.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    how to get approved to buy options ???

    by mr_red_rover May 22, 2015 7:52 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 23, 2015 10:18 PM Flag

    I agree 100% with Outvestor. Trading options in ARWR is way too risky and not worth it when the stock is trading @6+.

    I played options 80-90 calls at different times, 2 times I made and other 2 I lost heavily.

    With so many shorts here, unless otherwise they prove 100% FC on majority of the patient population, shorts will drive it down, even though the Scientific Community will applaud their efforts.

    If you would like play 2017 calls, by which time they would have completed PH 3 and waiting for NDA/Drug approval. Even then I prefer buying Stocks rather than Options.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    henryzxu Shows Up the Last Hour

    by investron May 19, 2015 3:35 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 19, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Investron: I'm not looking for a bounce tomorrow or day after tomorow. This is currently under bear grip. I'm not selling one share. But this is for 2017 and beyond. Mgmt can't do anything with regard to PPS and I don't see anyone upgrading the stock. Major funds are not like us, this is one among another 100 holdings. They will sell, buy, hedge, loan whatever they do to maximize their return, they control 70%.

    I'll add whenever I get more dough to add to my exisitng position, it is going to be slow buying.

    As I said one needs to wait patiently for 2 year horizon to reap full benefit. In the fast changing investor world, 2 years is a pretty long time. People flip 100 times in an hour.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Do You Think ARWR

    by investron May 19, 2015 11:50 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 19, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    I sold my options last week after the delay announcement and went on long stock and 2017Jan calls.

    For me this is a long term bet, I thought this will move by Jan 2016, but as it stands it is going to be delayed.

    Always the Shorts make their moves based on the Options volume.

    This is pretty good stock but the wait is going to be longer and WELL WORTH THE WAIT!

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Do You Think ARWR

    by investron May 19, 2015 11:50 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 19, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    As long as this many shorts prowling on this one the Upside is very limited. You will notice for every up move they will try to force it down.

    At this juncture for another 3 months atleast there are no catalysts to move the stock up. 3 mg /4 mg was a catalyst and it is postponed for no apparent reason.

    if you buy / invest in right now, you need to hang on well beyond 2017 for a meaningful profit to make. If you are a short term player, then this is not your ideal place to put your bets.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Only those who are deeply involved here, know the biggest potential. For others and the market players this is just another stock. Look at the current valuation? Under 400 MLN$ with 1 Ph 2 B and 1 Ph 2 A drug with a Platform, Cash + a great potential for huge pipeline of drugs.

    Who will wait for another 3-4 months? Are the competitors going to wait? Someone will strike hard, buyout could happen at any time, whether mgmt willing or not.

    Let us wait and watch, I seriously doubted ARWR as a standalone entity with this type of #$%$ market valuation.
    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If you don't have a 8-12 month Time frame don't enter here.

    Accumulate as much as you can and wait it out.

    A FC for HBV is on the cards with ARC-520 + Pegasys (any anti-viral). It takes time to get the Phases started, we are at the Cusp of something happening soon, again 8-12 months.

    I'm not selling one share here.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That is going to happen, there are bigger sharks who has very clear association with the Funds. For them ARWR is another Stock, if they make a 100-200% premium to their Purchase price, they will take and run.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    3mg/4mg data

    by noquickgame May 10, 2015 7:00 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 10, 2015 8:40 PM Flag

    Safety is already assured. Any incremental KD is the one we need. If 3/4 mg achieves a 40-50% incremental KD then you have a Drug which will provide a FC, which is what the ultimate goal.

    All in all if the HBV production is restricted to a level where Human body immune system takes over, then ARWR achieved its FC goal!

    With the long lasting effect of the Drug, probably I'm anticipating a FC announcement, remember these folks are already in Anti viral drug. A combination therepy with the Anti-viral + ARC 520 = FC!

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Once they realize the Tide is turning around and they have to swim with the Current, they will go Long BIGTIME, where you will not be able to get 1 share, for the Price you sold (if you were to sell). This is the way they make tons of money and taking the stock to unbelievable heights.

    I see a $25-30 range within the next 3 months and will move slow and steady based on the News.

    As for as Buyout, definitely Roche/. Gilead or some big pharma might go for it too.If not a friendly one, atleast an attempt for a hostile takeover just to send a message.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 5, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Currenty ABMD's mkt cap is close to 3 BLN, so 40 MLN shares o/s.

    We have close to 60-70 MLN. ARC-AAT alone can bring 1 BLN $ revenue. ARC-520 is huge, even Chinese revenue will be more than 1-2 BLN. Even if they subsidized for other poor countries they can earn 3 BLN easy per year revenue.

    You have so many future pipeline potential here.

    As for as secondary, they can produce Commercial quantities of ARC 520 for a 10 MLN investment. Definitely I don't think there is going to be dilution, rather alliance of some sort.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 5, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    Agreed, it is more to do with the Science than Hype!

    If Anzilo thinks he can't achieve a favourable milestone, he will be the first one to put up a sale sign from further embarassing himself.

    ARWR seems to me a SURE SHOT WINNER in 1-2 years time frame. Let us the price remain this low for another week or so, I would like to add atleast 7-8 K shares and wil wait for 2 years!, come what may.
    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If ARC 520 prevents the Virus generation, the Pegasys drug likes, kill the Viruses. Once a reasonable Functional Cure is achieved, the Human Body Immune system takes over.

    ARC-520 is a must to stop the generation process, no other drugs prevents it from generation. I don't think it is any more about 1 LOG KD, it is about Functional Cure.

    Even after 3/4 years of treatment, there is no successful Functional curecurrently for majority of the population. ARC 520 achieves that mile stone.

    Loadup, those who understand the Science more than these Short crooks will take over at some point in time.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 5, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    If you look at NVS's stock holding portfolio, they will have Bilion's of $ invested in multiple companies. These are strategic in nature and it is minuscule amount of their overall portfolio.

    Nothing much should be read into this. Today is another buying opportunity. I'm going to sell something else, will buy sufficient quantity for a 2 Year horizon, atleast another 50 K. $

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It is 10 X the expected revenue.

    With a 1 - 2 BLN $ annual sales of both ARC-520 & ARC-AAT you are looking at 10-20 BLN valuation.

    That is around $200-300 stock easy here. My 100 $ assumption seems very conservative.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone who sells now is a TOTAL #$%$!

    by jagan1961 May 5, 2015 9:43 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 5, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    At this juncture the shorties still providing an opportunity for longs to load up and wait it out.

    Are you going to setll @10/20/30? No I'm not unless there is a forced take over, where you don't have an option.

    You need to hang in tight here 1 Year, you will have ARC 520 approved by mid/late 2016. ARC-AAT will be fast tracked since there is no Cure at present.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You need to be PRETTY LONG ON THIS ONE! Even if you have purchased it @25+, you need to hang in here! This will definitely move past $100 in a years time. Mark my words.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And those shorties who don't cover too is a Complete #$%$!

    ARWR will touch $100 by this time next year!

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AFFY
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