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Вашингтон Мучел Message Board

jagan1961 79 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 19, 2015 2:30 PM Member since: Oct 31, 1999
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  • As for as GDP goes the OIl needs to stay above $70 for a meaningful cost + recovery. The chances of that price moving above $60 seems very remote.

    The main issue why Saudis are pumping much more oil, it is not only to counter Iran or Russia, they know the Oil consumption going to go lower as well as the Renewable energy sources are moving much higher in that equation.

    Chinese are building 10's of GW of electric power through Solar and India too started building huge Solar Power plants with investments running in Billions. The cost of generation has come down very drastically to under 5-6 cents per KWH. The main consideration is global warming and environmental impact.

    The Driiling costs are going to come down and the oil will stay in 50-60 range for the foreseeable future. If one would like to invest, invest in GDP bonds, that would be a better bet to recover something.

    Equity and preferred days are over.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    just bought 140 $8 calls for Jan 2016

    by pidxedla Jun 11, 2015 12:18 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 Jun 11, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Even though I believe in ARWR, the waiting may be too long.

    If the shorts cover then boom, the stock will go back to 14-15 easy.

    The best would in the money calls, $4 strike price going for $3.20 or so, which is a great deal, even though you own less number, the chances of making money and protecting your investment will be good.

    GLTY!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jun 11, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    Right now the shorts will cover, yesterday's news was a very good one. Some form of recognition was needed and they got it.

    With 2 Drugs 1 in Ph 2 B and another in PH 1, shorts won't wait any longer. THere are no shares in the market place.

    It will move past 14-15 range in no time.

    If you sell now you can't get it back.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    it looks to me Short covering!

    by jagan1961 Jun 11, 2015 10:05 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 Jun 11, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    I hold 7 K shares and 30 Jan 2016 7 Calls. I sold some 70 Jan 2016 Calls and converted it to shares @6.30 and bought some more.

    No regrets, I can wait forever now.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Will take it to 13-14 levels, when they try to exit en masse!

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Moreover it is a recognition from FDA, which was lacking all along.

    A long way to go, but there is a positive feeling with this designation and AAT seems to be as valuable as 520!

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jun 10, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    It is indeed a good news, to the world it says "ARC-AAT" is being recognized by FDA to be a potential candidate for this rare disease.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirk's Blog

    by pt117cool Jun 2, 2015 4:43 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 Jun 2, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    Unsure why folks needs to look at AAT, when ARC-520 is the STUFF.

    I know mkt cap is insane at this juncture, if ARC-520 fails he company is doomed.

    These are all of the platform and DPC delivery system.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    To Realize That This Is A $100+ Stock

    by investron May 28, 2015 9:24 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Investron: It is getting delayed for various reasons. The target is achievable, however I consider this could be achieved only by Jan 2017 beyond, by which time ARWR should have filed NDA for ARC-520 after PH III.

    Hold a good chunk and wait it out.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 29, 2015 7:21 PM Flag

    I did not lose any credibiility here, I'm still long and hold considerable position. Yes no one expected the delay in releasing 3 mg & 4 mg data, which is what causing the issue and Jan 2016 in the money calls will work out, but out of the money calls may not be worth much.

    You need adjust your strategy based on the what the market perceives and the management believes. Right now Anzilone has the lowest level of reputation in terms of timely execution, per the market.

    With the 16 MLN short position it says something, one of them is the Drug is long way to go before any meaningful outcome.

    You need to place bets accordingly, the stock is @6.30, why do you want to risk 2+ $ for a $5 call, when you can buy the shares outright.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For providing you cheap shares to accumulate.

    With the Legal issue (though is non-sensical) and the delay in 3/4 mg ph 2 a results announcement, the shorts are having a field day, however it is just a mirage. Will vanish soon.

    However I'm not looking at 2015/2016, I'm looking at 2017, as of now, it is just a delay and nothing to do with the Science or the power of ARWR conquering HBV/AAT market place.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ACHN signed some sort of Partnership and equity sale. I don't know 100% of the details.

    With ARWR a Billion $ partnership/milestone pmt+Sales Royalty with a Big pharma will go a long way in defusing the trust deficiency.

    GLTA LONG!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 29, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    stop the #$%$ mo roon!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Bio investing is such, it is always a long wait, especiall for a developmental compan with NO REVENUE streams.

    I thought we might see something in 2016, however m predicion is going to be 2017 and beyond, unless there is some sort of Buyout!

    Anzilone is yet to prove his credentials to the market place! Shorts as of now has plenty of time to cover and go long.

    I'm holding strong, definitely I need to wait till 2017!

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    adam_colemd = In Full Damage Control Mode

    by investron May 29, 2015 8:54 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 29, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Even those who are very bullish on ARWR, needs to step back and take a breath. What is going on internally is different matter, however what is perceived outside is dictating the Price.

    For all the efforts he is putting in, ANZILONE is not a very successful BIO GUY thus far, that is a fact, hope he can straight the record right now.

    Unsure why his Brother ANZILONE is another director here, that is like Family controlled business.

    I'm waiting patiently for a positive outcome.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 25, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    end2war: I agree to most of your opinion. However look at the languishing share PPS. That tells you something more. There are 2 sides to everything, one we longs feel that is a billon $ asset, they paid or NVS sold for 3 MLN Shares, so it is worth what they actually paid. Even the same thing goes with Roche's portfolio acquistion, why would they sell for a puny amount?

    Time will tell. We are still a long way to go. I've extended my time horizon for 2 full years now, till May 2017, by which time we should have a marketable product.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    how to get approved to buy options ???

    by mr_red_rover May 22, 2015 7:52 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 24, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Other issue with the Options is the Depth of the Options market. You can't exit out, if you want to.

    As long as there are 16 MLN shorts unless there is a Huge Blow out news (like a Buyout / 100% FC) there is no way they will take this up. They will do all the MOMO plays till they cover most of their positions. They will frustrate most of the Individual longs as well the Institutional longs. For Institutions it is another stock, they will sell and go to something else.

    For many of us, we see a great potential here and know in a 1 -2 years time this will be a 10 X stock from here.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    how to get approved to buy options ???

    by mr_red_rover May 22, 2015 7:52 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 23, 2015 10:21 PM Flag

    Morover ANZILO's timelines are NOT WRITTEN IN STONE! Current 3 mg/4 mg result issue is a case in point. I do expect numerous time extensions and lapses due to varying reasons.

    The stock will definitely move up, however it has plenty of time before it does the move.

    You never know what the Wallstreet cro oks will do, however we need to protect our money.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    how to get approved to buy options ???

    by mr_red_rover May 22, 2015 7:52 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 23, 2015 10:18 PM Flag

    I agree 100% with Outvestor. Trading options in ARWR is way too risky and not worth it when the stock is trading @6+.

    I played options 80-90 calls at different times, 2 times I made and other 2 I lost heavily.

    With so many shorts here, unless otherwise they prove 100% FC on majority of the patient population, shorts will drive it down, even though the Scientific Community will applaud their efforts.

    If you would like play 2017 calls, by which time they would have completed PH 3 and waiting for NDA/Drug approval. Even then I prefer buying Stocks rather than Options.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    henryzxu Shows Up the Last Hour

    by investron May 19, 2015 3:35 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 19, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Investron: I'm not looking for a bounce tomorrow or day after tomorow. This is currently under bear grip. I'm not selling one share. But this is for 2017 and beyond. Mgmt can't do anything with regard to PPS and I don't see anyone upgrading the stock. Major funds are not like us, this is one among another 100 holdings. They will sell, buy, hedge, loan whatever they do to maximize their return, they control 70%.

    I'll add whenever I get more dough to add to my exisitng position, it is going to be slow buying.

    As I said one needs to wait patiently for 2 year horizon to reap full benefit. In the fast changing investor world, 2 years is a pretty long time. People flip 100 times in an hour.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy