I wrote crazy run FROM the 30's not TO the 30's. In other words I bought in the 20's because I thought it was a good long term value. The stock went into the 30's which I thought was fair. But all of a sudden next thing I know it rockets from like $38 to $50 in a week - didnt make sense, so I sold. I expected a quick retreat but it didnt go backwards. Once the pre-announcement came and the stock didnt get killed I decided to short it.
I started buying in the 20"s and sold out in the high $40's - can only be so greedy / lucky. Once the stock went into the $50's I started to short - no reason not to. Will short again on any price over $45, most likely. Just depends on how much time I want to spend on WBMD when the market is full of good buys.
I was long in the $20's - it was too low at that time. But the crazy run from the $30's had no explanation. I will get long again eventually. Like anything else in life, it is all about the timing. Getting in at these levels just means a potentially longer wait before you make real $$.
I dont see any correlation to turning green today with any improved sentiment for WebMD at these levels. Stock still has +20% short interest. I suspect given the huge upswing in the broader market some shorts covered to take advantage of the downgrade early but then got caught in a mini-squeeze. Stock still down 3% last 5 days I would short again at $45. Dont see this holding.
Talk about sneaky - check out the bonuses management handed themselves including $100K to a guy who doesnt even work at the company!
WBMD is in a dominant position - they have no competitors other than Google who doesnt even try and rakes in big ad $$ from health. That said, the media model has limited shelf life and the stock is just way too expensive. There is no reason to own it at these levels unless you have insider information.
Talk about crooked - how does Cameron get a $100K bonus? What does this guy do? He never even steps into the office - these guys are crooks. Too bad the shareholders dont care....compensation committee - ha! Who staffs it - Wygods golf buddies or jockey?
macro issues have nothing to do with it - the stock was on a steady march backwards well before anything in the Ukraine took place - and as Warren Buffet says, if you think anything in the Ukraine is impacting your stock you are nuts.
One common theme on these boards - nobody can make a financial case that the stock is not wildly overvalued. Why buy WebMD when you can buy GOOG for half the price?
Stock is overvalued. Has nothing to do with management - cant squeeze 25% growth out of the stock when management told you its 6% - 12% if all goes well.
As I said before, stock goes below $40 before it ever sees $50. Probably ends the week under $40 if Russia invades.
Stock down nearly 7% this week - why would any shorts be unhappy? The trade is made. Anyone who bought over $45 is in trouble....
I dont believe I know more than anyone about where the price will go - nobody knows that - as they said in the Wolf of Wall St. - its in the wind.
I do know a lot about WBMD's business - but I would hope all shareholders would know as much. Do your homework!
I have been in and out of WBMD for a long time - all making money. Right now, as I said, I think the stock goes below $40. No reason for it to hold.
I dont care where the stock goes. I dont own any.
WBMD has nearly 20% - that is huge. Historically, WBMD has always had one of the highest % short vs. float of all stocks.
And let's not forget Icann rattling mgmt cages also pumped the stock.
Show me a fundamental analysis that shows the stock is fairly valued in the $40's and I will shut up.
I dont think you (or the others who post on this board) know what you are talking about as it relates to these points:
a. DTC drugs that are currently being marketed always have a set budget for the year, and if the brand managers dont spend that budget it goes down the next year. Therefore WBMD had always been able to count on picking up most of that money. The fact that Q4 was off is a bad sign. This has nothing to do with patent expiration, etc.
b. While Google shut down Google Health they continue to work with and court the same ad dollars that WBMD does - and in fact Pharma is one of the Top 3 buyers of Google Adwords nearly topping autos. Again, this has nothing to do with Google's shut down of Google health.
c. Who cares if they are in the same building? its not 1920 - we dont travel across town by horse.I
d. One more thing you never mentioned - WBMD's chief competitor, Everyday Health filed their S1 this week and will now give investors a cheaper alternative to play in the same space. This means more downward pressure on the stock as some WBMD buyers will surely go to EH.
Right - as I said. The short squeeze was the sole reason for the run from the $30's to $50.
Now the same short money will plow back in and ride back down....
I have not seen one analyst report that shows that they have some secret understanding of how WBMD will drive 20% growth. The reason the stock didnt tank is because the volume is often low and many of the shorts are slowly coming back in....good luck with your position. Your "logic" is based on nothing but guesswork....that is a fool's game.
They may have a target and you may be right on the options. So what?
Stock goes lower because there was no reason for the move from $35 to $50 to begin with. No news and a subpar Q4 and Q1. By the way Q4 is almost always great as Pharma throws in all their remaining annual budget.
Next move up will have to come after Q1 report. Until then stock goes lower.
Hard to think of any acquisition large enough to move the stock higher. Maybe Practice Fusion. Maybe.
Stock will go below $40 before it goes above $55. Guaranteed.
As for the options increase - why not? Gives them some wiggle room on the deal side - and they dont care if they dilute for the average Joe - their % is secured.
Final thought - Marty is one old dude - what happens when he is gone? He is like the Godfather....for better or worse.
You are telling me that at nearly 200x PE and a PEG of nearly 6 you think the stock price reflects merely 6% - 12% growth?
6% - 12% growth is is for old, big, lumbering companies not internet firms operating in a massive market.
I will short again on any price north of $48.
If the ACA leverage were real the stock would be at $90, not $58.
Why buy WebMD at $58 when you can get tons of others with higher growth rates for less?
Long term the ACA could have a big impact if WebMD is able to make the landgrab real. Two things to keep in mind:
a. Many players are also looking to make this land grab including EMR's with patient portals that do the same thing Schlanger is discussing.
b. The stock is already priced for perfection and is already reflective of the assumption that all of WebMD's dreams are already real.
Bottom line is this: media is a losing game...