It was 1/7/14 when NBIX had a GIANT move last January. So it comes a day late and isn’t quite as big this year, but it does start with a base that’s over twice as high….so no complaints…………Jalla
On Monday Schiller said they anticipated the DJ#2 flow test would take place in early June. As I recall the rig arrived at the location 5 months ago which would mean about 6 months before flow testing a completed well. I wish some completion knowledgeable poster could explain why it has taken such an extended period.
The first head of the SEC, appointed by FDR, was Joseph Kennedy, a notaries Wall Street bear raider and father of a future President & Senator - it didn’t start with Barack Obama. But I remember them nailing Martha Stewart for insider trading. She must have sold to the wrong buyer…jalla
So the Exxon properties came at a lower cost per barrel than those of EPL. The equipment on the Exxon properties was very old and has cost EXXI big $s both in repair costs and production delays. I doubt that that was fully factored in at the time of the bargain buy from Exxon. Oil was also selling in the $80s at the time of that purchase. EPL is not offloading such problem assets in this case. They weren’t selling and their stockholders are also on the buy side of this transaction, although at a bargain price I’ll admit, so those future cost and delays are not waiting out there to bite into future returns. I haven’t heard anyone mention that in the comparison of the two acquisitions but I’ll bet the EXXI team has given it some consideration …jalla
And now we know why those very large EXXI put positions existed. I see this happening over and over where those with inside information use options to profit from such information - and getting away with it. Same thing happened to another stock I own, NBIX, in January. Big buyer of out of the money calls front running good drug test results. Sent 15 & 25c call to $5 & $7.…. SEC ?
The current very large open interest in the $21,$22 & $28 EXXI March puts might indicate some pending bad news that insiders are privy to & expecting to profit from. The only bad news I can think of, with oil @ $104+, is failure at DJ#2. I hope that isn’t true but … look for yourself - jalla
I hang onto every word you post on the IV Board so appreciate and thank you for your kind correction of my error! I’m 86 and one year must look like any other. But the fact remains that they were happy with the upper zone. As I recall there was talk of “a trillion” discovery at that time. Thank you again for your correct information…jalla
A suggestion: What I do when I want to add trading shares of a stock in which I have a core position, is to sell @ the market short puts. This is a bullish position but gives up the increase above the current price for the chance of being forced to buy below the current price. The $23 March puts of EXXI are currently trading @$1. Sell to open leaves you a buyer @ $22 if EXXI closes below $23 on 3/21/14 or the keeper of the$1if it closes above. But, if you do end up chasing & buying above $23, you have a dollar to lower the price if you mentally look at it the way. - end up paying $23.75 but telling yourself that your getting in for $22.75 (ignoring the $1 STCG ).
As I see it both wells have discovered commercial reserves in the upper zones and neither has had a look at the lower zones, zones that apparently are productive in the Judge Digby Field to the North in the Tuscaloosa (which seems to correlate with Lomond North). I can envision enormous reserves & production from both the lower & upper pays on these two very large properties. A year from now EXXI could be cheaper at $33 than it is today at $23.
Another reason to be a buyer of EXXI now is that the Lineham Creek well should reach TD very soon. Earlier this month Gary Luquette - President, North America Exploration & Production Co- Chevron -when asked about the, Lineham Creek Well said:
“We have had some encouraging results. We're not at TD. We actually just penetrated the secondary objectives. We've stopped. We've logged, taken core. And now, our plans are, as we evaluate the core and the logs, to continue to drill to our primary objectives at TD.
We have about another 2,000 feet to go. And it's premature for me to say anything more about that than to say we're very encouraged by the secondary objectives. But, we're hoping to get even more good news as we get down to the primary objectives”. He went on to say that such results could be available in March.
After reading the transcript of the FCX meeting and what Jim Flores said about the Lomond North well, how could any owner sell their stock in this company with 71 million outstanding shares that ownes an 18% WI in that property? Flores, who has had little interest in the UD properties, seemed ecstatic about this new discovery being drilled onshore:
“excellent reservoir characteristics… clean sand…best yet”
“porosities in the 20% range”…“we have the logs & cores…spectacular”
“should have excellent flow and production rates”
“have drilled 150’ of pay & are still in it drilling - TD is another 1k feet”
“this is a commercial well” “will test this summer open it up and see what 20% porosity at these pressures will do”
“56,000 acres - a great deal of it up dip to this discovery well”
“this is a very large structure with a large reservoir potential”
“A LOT OF LIQUIDS WITH BETWEEN $20 & $30 PER BBL MARGIN!”
“THIS WELL SUPPORTS THE ENTIRE EXPECTATIONS OF THE UD AND SHOULD BE A SPECTAULOR RETURN TO OUR ROYALTY TRUST INVESTORS AS WELL”
-should expect completion of DJ#2 in 2nd/4 ,BB West 3rd/4th & SS188 the 4th/4 to early 2015.…jalla
So EXXI’s price is down & this board has turned negative. BUT (1) NG prices should help this year’s profits as they account for 1/3rd of EXXI’s gross income and storage levels have fallen back to those of 2008 (do you remember $14 NG?). (2) Management has bought back about 10% of outstanding EXXI shares with borrowed money (buying intrinsic assets with future $s (inflation/cheap money)) is a very wise thing to do with the Fed buying a trillion $s of paper a year & the press laying the ground work for a $10+ minimum wage. (3) The LC well has a significant discovery in the Yegua zone and both of the onshore well results should be known shortly. The transfer of the UD assets to FCX has assured the development of these enormous reserves that we know are there. (4) Two years ago the operator of the DJ property decided that rather then trying to complete the DJ#2 using the slim hole equipment already in existence (for the #1’s), they would wait several years until new, larger size equipment was built, to attempt completing DJ#2. They must have decided from the facts on hand that the extended wait was worth the anticipated higher production rates. Some of you, may recall how excited those that saw the logs, of #2’s two’s lower zones were: yes the ones that are being completed NOW! In 2014 both the BBW#2 and SS188 should also see completion. So 2014 may be a very good year for the stockholders of this company whose worries should be limited to the price of oil & bad weather in the Gulf, not trivia: IMHO….Jalla
Sentiment: Strong Buy