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Sourcefire, AŞ Message Board

jamcracker25 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2015 7:50 AM Member since: Feb 26, 2013
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  • Reply to


    by imos_is_garbage Aug 14, 2015 10:05 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Aug 21, 2015 7:50 AM Flag

    ASX paying NT225 for SPIL ADS = $7.12
    SPIL up over 33% pre market
    2 days ago low for SPIL was 4.92 and now being offered $7.12 = 45% = back to July 1 close of 7.13
    fyi: July 1 Chippy closed @ $22

  • Reply to

    Concerns about the conversion

    by conversionworrier Aug 13, 2015 3:40 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Aug 17, 2015 10:46 PM Flag

    caffeine44444 made a good observation (see below) when the company announced buying back 20 million 8150 shares:
    The best part of the news is that 8150 is willing to pay up to NT$41.24 so management feels that is a fair price to buy back.If they think that price is fair then they are saying that IMOS fair price is $26.50 prior to any premium on the conversion plus retiring about 20% of the outstanding shares in 8150 for cash

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Aug 6, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Looking for $56.5 - $57.25 million
    Would be MoM growth but YoY decline.
    Should be posted by Monday morning.

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Jul 21, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    If the company had announced a $25 million dividend it would amount to about 85c - at the current price that would mean 4.6% yield. We would get the cash and some would even get taxed on it.

    Last year IMOS bought back 1 million shares from SPIL and announced another $15 million worth in the open market. That is over 5% of the outstanding shares. This month the company announced another $25 million buyback - good for about 4% of the float. That means in a 12-month period this company has almost bought/announced to buyback about 10% of the outstanding shares. I cannot recall any company that has done such a buyback "quietly" with cash on books without tapping the debt market. Most companies will have a buyback to repurchase 2% - 5% over couple years and here is a company that is shrinking its outstanding shares w/ cash, w/o debt and not to negate their dilution via generous stock options.
    If one is going to buy a car or real estate - one would want a lowest possible price - similarly, I would prefer best possible price when our company is going to buyback shares in the open market or via conversion. All you have to do is think you are owning more and more of this cash machine for a lower price - all without paying any taxes.

    Bottom line is in a span of 12 months this management via three buyback has/will return about 10% of "our cash" via 3 buybacks (that is over $60 million).

    Regarding semi sector selloff - business is soft for the most semi names and good chance IMOS is not an exception. It is shoot first - ask questions later phase.

  • Reply to

    Ground hog day-again

    by sean777007 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jul 19, 2015 7:37 PM Flag

    I show 2015 EPS has been cut to $1.75 - so no growth.

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Jul 9, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Chipbond's website has June revenue numbers showing MoM and YoY decline.
    Chippy reported April & May revenue of $55.6 & $54.1 = $109.7 million
    Management guided flat to down low single digits - so flat to -5% compared to Q1 2015 ($167 million).
    So June revenue could range from $57.3 (flat) to $49 million (-5%).

  • Reply to


    by sean777007 Jul 1, 2015 12:46 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jul 1, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    $90 million sitting in Bermuda is priced in the stock. That cash released to the shareholders via a special dividend or sitting in Bermuda makes no difference. Shareholders will be taxed on that dividend.
    Buying back shares is a better alternative - yes management is SLOW in buying back. Good chance the Thailin model of using Bermuda cash to exchange IMOS shares for ADR + cash at a premium will be followed - if that is the case - buybacks here complicates thing (according to wise legal advice).

  • Reply to

    20 million testing equipment

    by lizheng19672002 Jun 10, 2015 10:13 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jun 10, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Thank you Liz
    Management guided Q2 revenue being flat to down low single digit v. Q1 2015. So for revenue to come in flat to say -5%, June revenue has to be between US$ 51-59 million.
    I thought Toshiba business was going to be contributing during Q2 - for it to come in at the tail end of the quarter means Q3 numbers/margins will be good - hopefully management will offer strong guidance.
    Will management issue a press release on June 17 about the completion of Thailin merger and also update on the dividend + cash cash balance in Bermuda?

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Jun 8, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    Thailin last traded on June 4th - has not traded since last Thursday - does that mean the merger has closed ahead of schedule (June 17)?

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Jun 7, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    On November 12 Thailin merger was announced w/ the following terms: NT$12.50 cash and .311 shares of 8150. When the deal was announced Thailin was at NT$ 21.35 and 8150 was at NT$ 39.50 giving Thailin shareholders NT$ 12.50 cash plus NT$12.48 worth of 8150 for a total of $24.78 = 16% premium. Since the deal was announced the price of 8150 has gone up from NT$ 39.50 to Friday's close of $42.90 and Thailin has gone up to $24.85. Based on 8150's Friday's close the deal is worth NT$ 25.84 representing a premium of 21%.
    Now 21% premium is not bad for a company that was 48% owned by 8150 and a deal that took about 6 months to close.
    However, when it comes to Chippy, the tables are turned around. 8150 does not own Chippy, in fact, Chippy owns 8150. Though the ownership drops from 60.4% to 58% post merger and if I recall Jaret stating in one of his SA article that Bermuda law requires 70% approval for the deal to pass then we can be sure management will offer something north of 16% premium. Even if management follow the Thailin blueprint of using Bermuda cash as part of the final collapse the combination of closing the discount w/ 8150 along with a 15%-20% premium will take the stock closer to $30.
    Time frame: For the final collapse of the share structure to be completed by 12/31/15 good chance management will present the terms by July.
    Finally, if one looks at the EPS forecast for 2016 ($2.9) means analysts are pricing in the massive share count reduction and if one slaps a 10 PE = $29.
    Bottomline: a conservative target for a conservative management $29-$32.