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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jamcracker25 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 9:13 PM Member since: Feb 26, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Question for board

    by sean777007 Sep 17, 2014 6:59 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 17, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    Considering that the company wants to retire a huge block of 8150 - say 25% = cashing out 40% of Chippy. Good chance the formula will be $10-$12 cash and 11-12 ADR shares of 8150 for each share of Chippy - giving it a value of $29-$31. My guess is between now and prior to next earnings calls in November we should see the proposal - just a guess.
    A typical buyback is useless (usually done by companies to offset stock option dilution) - doing a buyback right now is useless as Chippy shareholders will get less in the conversion process - on the other hand - a huge tender offer is a BIG plus as it will retire a large block of outstanding shares.

  • Reply to

    Your welcome

    by sean777007 Sep 10, 2014 2:44 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 10, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Yes Sean77707 - good close - last hour strength and new high for the day. Market-on-close hit of 2500 shares brought it down a nickle. Follow through upside tomorrow would be perfect.
    Next Friday is option expiration and a good way to "take away" covered call shares written @ $25 strike - almost 3000 contract open interest.
    Just feel any day we get a conversion proposal and stock gaps up 25% to 30%.

  • Reply to

    Your welcome

    by sean777007 Sep 10, 2014 2:44 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 10, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    wow - you da man
    morning highs taken out - lets see of it can close above 23.70
    Resistance around $24.25
    Final hour upon us

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Sep 10, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    Chippy makes a day high within first couple hours of the day and spends rest of the day dripping down.
    Most semi names down for the day so relative strength so far - but long day ahead.
    Still waiting for firmness in stock price going into the last hour - good action would be if Chppy manages to close above $23.70.

  • jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 10, 2014 6:06 AM Flag

    ty hedgehog
    Press Release:
    .....Based on continued strong customer demand in both the Company's LCD driver IC and memory segments, the Company now expects revenue and gross margin on a consolidated basis for the third quarter of 2014 will be at the high end of the Company's original guidance.

  • Reply to

    JW's (August 20, 2013) article

    by jamcracker25 Sep 8, 2014 8:19 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 10, 2014 6:02 AM Flag

    Maybe boobermonkey, however, SPIL wanted to sell (for their own reasons) and Chippy stepped in - this was not a buy initiated by Chippy, This SPIL share buy should not interfere with the share collapse process / timetable.

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Sep 9, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    If you take out Baupost, Soros, Oasis &^ Acadian along w/ SPIL, Mosel and SJ's shares - the float is only 13.3 million shares. - In other words - its insiders and big time informed buyers - no short change - just a complicated structure requiring complicated un winding. My previous post reiterated JW's steps to share collapse - 6 of those steps so far completed. So progress is being made if only management was not hiding behind a legal curtain and be more transparent about the work in progress there by clearing all the rumors and doubts. So everyone would have equal access to the so called road map to share collapse along w/ a rough time table. They could have laid out the broad strokes of the process a while back. Outside that no complains - management does not control when someone buys or sells - for example DLS.

  • Reply to

    Keep #$%$

    by jamcracker25 Sep 8, 2014 2:34 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 9, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    Pattern continues.
    Day high registered within first two hours of trading day - then drip drip.
    Seems sell program not completed
    Until last hour strength shows up - chippy will be drippy.

  • Timeline
    1) ChipMOS Bermuda sells subsidiary ChipMOS Shanghai to partially owned subsidiary ThaiLin. COMPLETED, April 22, 2011.
    2) ChipMOS Bermuda lists ChipMOS Taiwan on the GreTai Securities Market of Taiwan, selling 6.5 million shares (.8% of its total ownership.) COMPLETED, April 19, 2013.
    3) Secondary offering of approximately 130 million shares in order to get below 70% ownership, required for listing on the big board in Taiwan. Expected within the next couple of weeks. COMPLETED
    4) Buyback of 4.1 million shares of IMOS from partially owned subsidiary ThaiLin. Expected shortly after secondary offering. COMPLETED
    5) Application to move listing to big board in Taiwan, expected in the fourth quarter of 2013. COMPLETED
    6) Listing on Taiwanese big board. COMPLETED
    So steps 1-6 that JW laid out in his SA article from 8/20/13 COMPLETED.
    Additionally, $333 million loan @ 2% for five years secured and 1 million share buyback from SPIL completed.
    Only thing left is the conversion proposal and exchange cash + ADR for each Chippy share.
    Bottom line: Management is delivering from operational side (new business, revenue growth, improving margins and cash balance) and also working on streamlining the corporate structure.

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Sep 8, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    Eight hits of 5000-7000 shares - almost half the volume so far today.
    Near $23.50 magnet again.
    Seems last Thursday's seller is back and not done w/ the sell program.
    August revenue should be $67.5-$68 million.
    Pattern of registering a day high within first two hours of trading day continues - the day the stock rallies to new high for the day in the last hour may clue in to price firming up and getting above the $24-$25 level. Until last hour strength shows up - chippy will be drippy!

  • Reply to

    8150 vs Chippy

    by jamcracker25 Sep 3, 2014 11:13 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 4, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Probably the seller is cleaned out - key is how Chippy closes today.
    MU got hit recently and bouncing back (see the reversal yesterday and follow through) - we need something like that in Chippy.
    At $23.09 = 110,000 shares traded
    Also group thing = AMKR and SPIL down -1.5% and -1.2% respectively today.

  • Reply to

    8150 vs Chippy

    by jamcracker25 Sep 3, 2014 11:13 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 4, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    8150 @ 39 = Chippy value of $26.42 = 12.4% discount! currently

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Sep 3, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    July revenue was the highest since October 2007 - does the company report north of $65 million revenue for August?

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Sep 3, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    Based on Chippy's outstanding shares of 28.8 million, 8150 price of 38.80 and exchange rate of 29.9 = Chippy's price of $26.30 and a discount of 9% currently.

  • Reply to

    8150: 38.60 -.70 (-1.78%)

    by jamcracker25 Sep 1, 2014 10:16 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Sep 2, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    Like clockwork - stock peaks within 2 hours of trading day and then drips. Long and slow journey!

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Sep 1, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    Drip Drip
    -15.5% from its hi of $45.80.
    Chippy gets hammered above $24 - the stock makes a high with 1-2 hours of market open and spends rest of the trading day drifting down. Almost five months the stock have not made much price progress - it can't be held back / stuck just because of corporate shareholding restructure - revenue growth, cash flow, margin expansion and new business win has to play a much larger role.
    Chip-molasses needs a booster shot!

  • Reply to

    Some keeps hitting w/ 5k blocks

    by jamcracker25 Aug 29, 2014 3:57 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Aug 29, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    Oasis wants management to offer a "small" premium so investors convert to 8150 shares.
    Oasis Suggested $26.40 cash or 19.50 shares of 8150 - the fact that the stock did not even touch $26 on that proposal by Oasis was a amazing.
    According to Oasis thinking - 19.5 shares would equate to about $27 (based on July price levels).
    Bottom-line they want about 15% premium to consolidate the share structure.
    This so called share collapse has been talked about for over two years - pace is VERY slow and management is very silent on laying out a time table or the broad strokes.
    Now that annual meeting is done maybe we hear something soon (just a thought - why would SPIL give their stock at a discount if a nice premium is around the corner?).

  • and keeps Chippy down
    10 days ago could not stay above $25 and now can't hold $24

  • Reply to

    EV/EBITDA & FCF Yield Calculation

    by jamcracker25 Aug 17, 2014 11:40 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Aug 18, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    Thanks alot caffeine444444
    I was not using $220m like Cowen

  • Caffeine444444 you mentioned that EV/EBITDA for Chippy is around 3 - would you please share the calculation in as much detail as possible.
    Also Valuable Insights stated the FCF yield for Chippy is double digits - can you also share how one arrives at the FCF yield - as I am getting different numbers.

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