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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

jamcracker25 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2016 2:22 PM Member since: Feb 26, 2013
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  • Reply to

    3 years ago.....where is Trampdad22 now?

    by jamcracker25 Jun 16, 2016 10:50 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jun 23, 2016 2:22 PM Flag

    sure you did - you just forgot to mention or rather tout your exit.
    And if the stock was above $10 - I am sure you would have even doubled up instead of selling out..
    Shows how much conviction you had in your $500 million market cap prediction.

  • Reply to

    3 years ago.....where is Trampdad22 now?

    by jamcracker25 Jun 16, 2016 10:50 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jun 16, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    Name calling and shooting the messenger does not help a healthy discussion.
    I avoided the pain and suffering of past 3 years while Chris continues w/ his hobby.

  • jamcracker25 • Jun 14, 2013 6:08 PM
    Baordwalk97 and trampdad22

    boardwalk97 • 1 hour 29 minutes ago Flag
    IF they double back on the RGB trail laid down in natural foods then it doesn't take a straw chewing cracker, to figure out the K possibility (sales potential-is obvious) Capacity has been the issue- but few folks want to give mgmt credit where its due

    jamcracker25 • Jun 17, 2013 2:03 PM
    Why ask a straw chewing cracker?
    You should listen to trampdad: REED $500m in 3 years, profits don't matter, impressive revenue growth, CR is laying the foundation (more like digging holes) and look at the forest (ignore the smoking trees). Besides his predictive powers - he is really good at name calling and shooting the messenger.
    On the other hand, the rear-view-fixated-straw-chewing cracker does know one thing: there is a big difference between potential and reality.
    Bottomline: Potential is there but the reality is that CR is the jockey. In capable hands REED would have reached $100m in revenue by now and profitable.

    jamcracker25 • May 8, 2013 1:05 PM
    The financial graveyard is littered with folks who tried to convince the world that earnings don't matter. You are the guy who said Dr. Pemberton didn't make $ the fist year....really....read history.... (Pemberton only cleared a profit of $50 the first year.). You like to make statements like REED $500m market cap in 3 years. I will stick to my earnings and cash flow as oppose to strictly revenue growth......

  • Reply to

    Question/Advice from long-timers

    by johnboywalton56 Jun 15, 2016 4:53 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jun 16, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    JBW56:
    You can sell September $17.5 calls or December $17.5 calls or December $20 strike calls.
    Each will potentially give you an exit over $18. A return of over 5% to 17% within a 3-6 months of time.
    Each will give you a "little" downside price protection.
    Not good at predictions - no clue if the stock goes up or down post conversion. Macro environment is an unknown.
    If business improves along w/ margins, we get Tsinghua's investment of $360m should help along w/ operation/tax efficiency post conversion.

  • Reply to

    June Revenue

    by jamcracker25 Jun 13, 2016 11:14 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jun 14, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Seems it was a 1-month update since the buyback was announced and so far 60% (of US$15 million) has been used.

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Jun 13, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    June Revenue MoM % change: 2010-2015
    +2.3% / -6.5% / +0.6% / +4.4% / -1.6% / +1.3%

    So in the past 6 years the best June MoM revenue growth has been +4.4%.

    Q1 2016 Revenue = NT$ 4724.1
    April and May reported = NT$1558.8 and 1550.2 respectively.

    For company to report a +1% QoQ growth = NT$4771.34
    Less April and May = 4771.34 -1558.8-1550.2 = $1662.34
    That means to post June revenue of NT$1662.34 - they have to report MoM revenue growth of +7.2%.

    Challenging.

  • Reply to

    May Revenues

    by johnboywalton56 Jun 8, 2016 6:47 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jun 8, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    Q1 2016 Revenue = NT$ 4724.1
    April and May reported = 1558.8 and 1550.2

    for 1% QoQ growth = 4771.34
    Less April and May = 477.34 -1558.8-1550.2 = 1662.34
    That means to post 1662.3 - they have to grow June MoM revenue by +7.2%
    or about US$51.5 million (the last time company reported $51.5 was exactly June of 2015).

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Jun 5, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    May monthly revenue 2010 - 2015:
    $52.9 / 53.9 / 55.7 / 55.2 / 59 / 50.9
    May revenue MOM change 2010 - 2015:
    11.6% / +8.1% / +2.4% / +4.6% / +2.4%% / -2.6%
    So worst case -2.6% and best case +11.6%
    For the past 13 consecutive months the company has posted YOY revenue declines.
    For the company to post MOM and YOY revenue growth means it has to post May revenue number above $50.9 million which equates to a MOM growth of above +5.4% = doable.
    IMOS reported Q1 revenue of $147.8 million and guidance for Q2 is low single digit.
    Factoring a QoQ revenue growth of 3% comes to Q2 2016 revenue of $152.2 million.
    My conservative forecast: Company will post May 2016 revenue growth of +6% to 7%.
    Since April revenue was $47.3 million that means May revenue estimate (not factoring currency adjustments) of $50.6 to $51.7 million.

  • Reply to

    ChipBond

    by imos_is_garbage May 23, 2016 12:22 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 May 24, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    Also a lot of talk about OLED post new big orders from AMAT
    All gearing for iPhone in 2017.

  • Reply to

    ChipBond

    by imos_is_garbage May 23, 2016 12:22 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 May 24, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    post AMAT earnings

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 May 19, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    May 11 - the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) was $17.72
    Right now it stands at $17.75.
    This 3c uptick in the 200-day sma is the first uptick in over a year - during which time the 200-day sma has been moving lower and lower.
    Before things can improve - they have to stop getting worse - at least TECHNICALLY SPEAKING!

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 May 18, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    This is from the conference call (5/12):
    S.K. Chen
    We don’t control the timeframe, right now, actually the SEC spend two more weeks to review our amendment and the newly filed 20F, the annual report that we made on April 18. And so based on our legal counsel feedback, the SEC staff will give us their second round of comments or -- by the end of this week, maybe Friday this week we will have their further input and this is to for the mergers process, we're waiting for SEC to further comment.

  • ChipMOS secures NT$13.2 billion syndicated loan
    Julian Ho, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Monday 16 May 2016]
    ChipMOS Technologies has signed a five-year syndicated loan for NT$13.2 billion (US$404.5 million) with 10 local banks in Taiwan, according to the packaging and testing company.

  • Reply to

    Analyst(s) trims forward EPS/Revenue estimates

    by jamcracker25 May 15, 2016 11:18 AM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 May 15, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    probably because David P. is busy sucking a lollipop
    Pro Forma EPS 30c and ex item 11c - something along that should have been the headline.

    Baupost shows no change in holding based on latest filings.

    Q2 revenue estimate is now $151.65 and the company already reported $48.3 for the month of April. So that leaves minimum $103.4 million to be posted for the month of May and June or about $51.7 per month. That would equate to 3.3% revenue growth compared to Q1 2016.

  • Before Q1 2016 earnings:
    Q2 / 2016 EPS estimates: 14c / 92c respectively w/ Revenue estimates: $155.65 / $638.85
    After Q1 2016 earnings:
    Q2 / 2016 EPS estimates: 13c / 66c respectively w/ Revenue estimates: $151.65 / $624.95
    In other words, forward estimates have been trimmed.

  • Reply to

    April revenue & Q2 2016 guidance

    by jamcracker25 May 1, 2016 6:07 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 May 10, 2016 9:03 AM Flag

    I was looking for 8% to 10% revenue growth for Q2 2016 - after today's April number - will settle for growth of 4% to 5% guidance.

  • Reply to

    April revenue & Q2 2016 guidance

    by jamcracker25 May 1, 2016 6:07 PM
    jamcracker25 jamcracker25 May 4, 2016 9:13 PM Flag

    My revenue estimate for April = $51.2-$52.2 million.
    More important is the guidance for Q2 2016 revenue growth = my estimate is up 8%-10% v. Q1 2016.

  • April monthly revenue 2015 - 2010:
    $52.2 / 57.6 / 52.8 / 54.4 / 49.9 / 47.4
    April revenue MOM change 2015 - 2010:
    -3.5% / +2.6% / -2.4% / +4.5% / -3.6% / +6.5%
    So worst case -3.6% and best case +6.5%
    For the past 12 consecutive months the company has posted YOY revenue declines.
    For the company to post MOM and YOY revenue growth means it has to post April revenue number above $52.2 million which equates to a MOM growth of above +3.4% = doable.
    Guidance for Q2 2016: The company posted Q2 2015 revenue of $154.6 million. Just to match that number the company's guidance for Q2 2016 should be revenue growth of +7.5% (v. Q1 2016).

  • Taipe Times
    4/9/16
    Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd (清華紫光) has applied for permission from the Investment Commission to buy a 25 percent stake in ChipMOS Technologies Inc (南茂) for NT$11.9 billion (US$366.72 million), a part of its move to acquire a stake in three Taiwanese chip testers and packagers.
    Tsinghua Unigroup plans to subscribe to 299 million new common shares of ChipMOS via a Tibetan investment venture controlled by its semiconductor arm Tongfang Guoxin Electronics Co (同方國芯), ChipMOS said yesterday........

  • jamcracker25 by jamcracker25 Apr 8, 2016 9:19 AM Flag

    Street is looking for $140.25 million - finally we will beat street revenue number.
    EPS 14c - since last quarter EPS was 27c - barring one time expenses we should beat that as well since margins will be over 1% better. compared to Q415.

IMOS
18.11-0.27(-1.47%)Jun 30 4:00 PMEDT