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Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. Message Board

james141492 11 posts  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2016 7:01 PM Member since: Jun 30, 2002
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  • On May 16, 2016, James Bindseil, GlobalSCAPE’s President and Chief Executive Officer and a director of the Company, notified the Company that he had resigned from all positions with the Company effective immediately.

    More likely he was allowed to resign. Notice that his replacement was named same day. Most likely means that they had already decided on who would replacement him before he "resigned".

    Could it be that the new products are not going well and he was the (Global) scapegoat?

  • Reply to

    Beware the upcoming earnings report

    by james141492 Apr 10, 2016 10:39 AM
    james141492 james141492 Apr 30, 2016 1:55 PM Flag

    I see they hit the upper end of my projection of a profit of 2 cents to a loss of 1 cent. Good for them. I will give them some credit for that, but not too much as their earnings are of poor quality.

  • james141492 james141492 Apr 24, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    Sorry for a typo in the above. Fed tax credit catch up they booked in the fourth quarter was $290 k not 4290k. The number 4 and the $ sign are on the same keypad and I must have not hit the shift key went I went to put the $ sign in

  • In another thread you asked if I could show how I arrive at my est of poor earnings of only a profit of 2 cents to a loss of 1 cent in the upcoming report. Very briefly:

    Fed gov did not extend the fed R&D tax credit to 2015 until the fourth quarter of 2015. This allowed GSB to book a Fed tax receivable in the fourth quarter of 4290k to "catch up" the credit for the first three quarters of 2015. The tax receivable is after tax income (i. e. net income) and it accounted for about 25% of net income in the fourth quarter. Without this special one time catch up on the tax credit earnings fell about 25% year over year in the fourth quarter ( i. e. net income from operations fell about 25% year over year in the fourth quarter)The one time benefit from the catch up on the credit won't rescue first quarter earnings like it doid fourth quarter.

    Then there is the Feb fourth 8k which tells us that on Jan 29 they awarded and paid a total of $513K in bonuses to executives. Same 8k also tells us that on Feb 1 they granted total of 400k option to executives @ an exercise price of $3.52. Hard to place exact value on the options, but a reasonable guess would seem to me to be maybe a buck to a buck and a quarter each for a total on the options of maybe (my guess) $400k to $500k. So total extra executive comp expense in the first quarter of maybe (my guess only) $900k to $1 million). Major impact on first quarter earnings.

    So I considered all these things and a few others and made the best estimate I could and came up with a profit of 2 cents to a loss of 1 cent as my best guess.

    Of perhaps more concern to me is the apparent steep drop in operating margins in the fourth quarter. It looks like the operating margins in the fourth quarter fell by about a third. Have to try and figure out if this was a one quarter event or reflects a new margin level for future quarters before I would ever think of buying here. Perhaps the earnings report coming in a few day can help with this

  • Reply to

    Beware the upcoming earnings report

    by james141492 Apr 10, 2016 10:39 AM
    james141492 james141492 Apr 24, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    Now that I have some free time as I will due so. But I will put your answer in a new thread so it does not get buried here. I also thank you for you not hostile question. Thank you.

  • Reply to

    Beware the upcoming earnings report

    by james141492 Apr 10, 2016 10:39 AM
    james141492 james141492 Apr 19, 2016 9:21 PM Flag

    I don't get around to looking at this message board often. Since I have no intention of making any decision on whether GSB is worth buying until after I see how bad things are with the upcoming report (or more likely how bad thing are with the next couple reports) I don't really have any reason to.

    The only reason I ever get to this board is to occasionally check to see if any analysis of value is posted here. Alas, there is no analysis of value ever posted here. There is only mindless pumping posted here.

    You commented " There is NOTHING in any of the press or SEC releases over the past few quarters that would.... "

    Since there is no object in questioning your honestly, I will take it that you have indeed read all the material that has come from the company in the past few months but somehow do not understand the actual content.

    The tone of your response to my post reminds me of a quotation from Proverbs

    " Pride goeth before destruction and an haughty spirit before a fall."

    So before you get too proud and haughty, you might want to reread all the material that the company has put forward the last few months. There are what I regard to be substantial negatives in them. See if you can find them for yourself first, but if you can't, then reply back to this post and say so, and I will point them out whenever I get back to this message board.

  • I am projecting a profit of 2 cents to a loss of 1 cent per share for the first quarter. If I am right this is going to put the stock in the dumper.

    Was looking here, but after doing my due diligence I'm going to pass. At least until after the report comes out. If I'm right and they dump the stock hard enough I might buy in at that point if it gets into the $1's.

  • james141492 james141492 Mar 21, 2016 7:13 PM Flag

    Got the good news. This is a big step in breaking the company apart.

    I see them getting the regulators consent on isolating the LTC unit and then breaking up the company sometime before the end of summer 2017. Probably gonna cost them every cent of the $2.5 billion in equity they have in the unit to get the regulators to agree, but the rest of the company should be worth at least $15 a share.

    BTW, that is what I see happening in the end. GNW agrees to forfeit it's equity in the LTC business to the policyholders in exchange for the regulators isolating the unit from the rest of GNW. That would reduce the future increase in premiums to LTC policyholders by nearly half (GNW is wanting $6 billion in future rate increases). It would cost GNW the loss of about $5 per share in book value but I think it would also effectively guarantee that the regulators agree to separate LTC. Then I think GNW goes to $15 on the news.

  • Deadline was the 18th if I recall correctly. Got the class action settled and now hopefully we can get the consent of the debt holders on altering the covenants on the debt.

    Think they will get the consent. If they don't get consent by the deadline they can always extend the time for consent and try and work it out so that they obtain approval.

    I think they will realistically get approval because the debt holders don't actually lose anything by granting approval and it moves the company one step closer to a breakup which would actually benefit the debt holders. Some of the debt is now trading at a discount to par, but a breakup of the company would result in a lot of the debt being paid early at par and the rest going back to trading at par on the open market, so debt holders actually stand to benefit by giving consent. People tend to do what is in their economic interest to do, so I see them gaining consent.

    Getting debt holder consent - even if it means extending the deadline and working with the debt holders to get consent - will be MAJOR positive step forward. MAJOR positive step forward

  • Reply to

    Good news that the class action is settled

    by james141492 Mar 13, 2016 11:51 AM
    james141492 james141492 Mar 13, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    I think the stock will do well this year, but I don't have any particular price target for this year. My time frame is into 2017 because I think they will be successful in separating the LTC biz from the rest of the company. Won't happen until sometime in 2017 but that will either push the stock into the upper teens or the company will get a bid in the upper teens else wise in my opinion. With the separation completed there is no way the stock stays single digits.

  • They seem to be aggressively moving forward with getting the company squared up.

    $79 million from the company pretax. That should be about $60 million after tax, or about 12 cents per share against a book value of $25. That is about as cheap as it was ever going to be settled for. One more issue resolved.

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