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Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. Message Board

james141492 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 20, 2015 10:53 PM Member since: Jun 30, 2002
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  • james141492 james141492 Jan 20, 2015 10:53 PM Flag

    Have no idea why yahoo displayed my numbers the way it did. let's try it this way;

    ... $18M (minus) $10M (minus) $5.5 M equals $2.5 million in ANNUAL ..

  • james141492 james141492 Jan 20, 2015 10:42 PM Flag

    I mean no personal offense to you Hattie, but where on earth did you go to school?

    If I accept your estimate of $18 million annual ebita, and I accept your idea that depreciation and amortization can somehow be reduced to only $10 million annually, and I take $5.5 million in annual interest, then I get $18M - $10M #$%$5M equals $2.5 million in ANNUAL pretax profit. Even assuming they pay no taxes whatever on that $2.5 million this is just 250 million pennies in annual earnings.

    Now the conversion rate on the B series notes is going to be set in just a couple more days and when this occurs the fully diluted share count here is surely going to jump to something over 90 million.

    250 million pennies in annual earnings with over 90 million fully diluted shares outstanding give less than 3 cents per year in earnings on a fully diluted basis. Put a generous pe of 10 on a mediocre company like this one and you then get a stock price of less than 30 cents.

    I have no idea where you were educated, but I am glad I was not educated there.

  • james141492 james141492 Jan 11, 2015 9:50 PM Flag

    I think someone could perhaps be doing it to make the stock look uninteresting so that they can accumulate shares without running the price up.

    As I was saying, others have noticed the same thing happening before. Scroll down the topics on this board till you find one from Dec. 24 titled "How did price get down to $2.25"

  • I have noticed this happening before with the stock. Several of the other posters here have commented on it as well. The official naz closing price does not always accurately reflect where the stock was trading.

    Happened again Friday. Go to the nasdaq website and get a "summary quote' for Gv and when the quote comes up click on "trade history" and look at the last 100 trades in the stock on Friday and you will see what I mean.

    The final 37 trades in GV on Friday were all @ $2.38 or higher and yet the official closing price was $2.33.
    The stock actually traded green at the close Friday. The only explanation I can offer is that someone did not want the stock to show a green close on a day the dow was down 170 and the nasdaq was down.32. I think someone does not want the stock drawing attention just yet.

  • james141492 james141492 Jan 8, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    You are an idiot..

  • Reply to

    Cash Flow Positve

    by matts6062 Dec 31, 2014 10:42 AM
    james141492 james141492 Jan 1, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    I am neither long or short. I am just a retail investor/trader that has over time learned the great value of doing research.

    The impulsive part of me would like to take a long position in this stock because the balance sheet here shows a book value that is relatively high in relation to the stock price. However, the thinking man in me says that the current book value is not much more than a sham, and that if I buy based on the current book value, then I would be making the classic mistake of not seeing the difference between buying value and buying into a possible value trap.

    Please also understand that when I say that the current book value is not much more than a sham, I do not mean that I find anything wrong with the company's financial statement. I do not. I simply mean that it is not much more than a sham in the sense that (1) as we go forward in time I see a high probability that the book value will go dramatically lower (In a year from now I personally do not see book value being on the same planet with where it is now), and in the sense (2) of whether the unknown future book value will even mean much of anything if the company is still losing money when things finally settle out here.

    By the way, is it possible that you are unaware that no person in the retail market can short a stock in the $0.30's? I suppose that some retail person could have shorted this back when it was in the $2's or something and rode it down, but no retailer can start a short position at these levels. So worrying about "shorts" on this MB is a complete waste of time. When I responded to the poster I was simple pointing out the obvious truth that there is no way in the world that cash flow from operations is going to increase next year.

  • Reply to

    Cash Flow Positve

    by matts6062 Dec 31, 2014 10:42 AM
    james141492 james141492 Dec 31, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Cash flow from operations is factually going to LOWER in 2015 than it was in 2014.

    This is because they just recently sold off the lead operations and thus the positive cash flow from those operations will be gone in 2015.

    On top of that the ceo said on the last conference call that the other side of the business (mostly steel/iron scrap) is going into a downturn. That should be an detriment to cash flow from the remaining operations.

    The company's operating metrics are going to take a hit with the sale of the lead biz. Aside from the loss of the positive cash flow from its operations, the lead business was the only part of the company that had positive net income from operations the last few quarters. In 2015 they won't have the positive net income from the lead operations to offset some of the net losses from the rest of the company.

  • james141492 by james141492 Dec 25, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Scaled into this one over the last week. Think it will do well for us in the coming year.

    Hope everyone enjoys the holidays.

  • According to todays 8k the debt for equity exchange resulted in the debt holders receiving a total of 24.4 million shares in exchange for just $10 million in debt.

    By the last quarterly report MEA had only 48.2 million shares outstanding prior to the debt exchange and so the debt holders now currently own one third of the company. They got a third of the company for their $10 million.

    I have been trying to find some "value stocks' to invest in, but I have not invested here yet, because this looks more like a value trap than a value stock.

    Anyone got a convincing argument for why there could possibly be value here?

  • james141492 james141492 Dec 22, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    Sadly you are wrong. (Although happy holidays to you as well)

    I refer your attention to exhibit 10.37 of the Oct 20 8k. In particular the topic headed "Right to additional common shares"

    I cut and paste the last sentence of this topic For purposes of this Agreement, the “ Issuance Date ” shall mean the forty-first (41st) Trading Day immediately following the Closing Date, and the “ Additional Common Shares Measurement Period ” shall mean the period consisting of each of the forty (40) consecutive Trading Days beginning on, and including, the Trading Day immediately following the Closing Date.

    Now scroll down exhibit 10.37 to the definitions of terms and you will see item (29) Certain definitions. and under certain definitions you will see

    (k) “ Closing Date ” shall have the meaning set forth in the Exchange Agreement.

    The exchange agreement is itself exhibit 10.43 of the Oct 8k. The opening sentence of the exchange agreement is

    EXCHANGE AGREEMENT (the “Agreement”), dated as of October 21, 2014, by and among Metalico, Inc., ....

    A little farther down in exhibit 10.43 you see the definition of the closing date given in 10.43

    (b) Closing Date. The date and time of the closing of the Exchange (the "Closing”) shall be 10:00 a.m., New York time, on the date hereof ..... (i.e. Oct 21)

    The closing date "as set forth in the exchange agreement" is then Oct 21 and the forty day trading period then begins the first trading day after Oct 21

    If I am wrong then please show me where I am wrong

  • Give or take a million or two.

    Was looking at this stock to see if there was any value here after the big decline in the stock price this year. Hard to see any here though considering the way the company has exchanged debt for equity.

    These additional new shares will be coming soon in connection with the company's previous debt restricting, of course, where $10 million in debt was traded for equity in the company. This debt was originally converted at about $1 per share for an issuance of about 10 million shares. However, the conversion carries an adjustment feature which requires the issuance of additional shares to the persons/entities who converted the $10 million into stock which is based upon the volume weighted average price of the stock over the 40 trading days after the close of the exchange. The exact effect of the adjustment is to recalculate the conversion into stock at a price equal to 85% of the volume weighted average price of the stock for the forty trading days after the close of the original conversion and then distribute the additional stock on a pro rata basis to the persons/ entities who converted the original $10 million.

    From looking at a chart it appears that the volume weighted average price of the stock in the 40 days after the closing of the conversion is going to be something like 40 to 43 cents (or something like that). If you take the higher figure of 43 cents and apply the 85% then you are left with 37 cents as the price for the adjustment to the conversion of the $10 million.

    $10 million @ 37 cents per share comes out to 27 million for the final share count to those that converted the $10 million. Since they already received 10 million shares, that leaves 17 million new shares to soon be distributed to them. Just a rough calculation, of course, but its hard to see value when the company ends up handing out something in the neighborhood of 27 million total shares for just $10 million in debt.

  • Had been watching this one because of the sharp decline in the share price over the past few months. Was thinking about maybe doing some bottom fishing here at some point, but not now.

    They have simply destroyed the existing shareholders along with any chance for the stock to even advance much above todays close @ $1.01 for a long time to come. The financing today is so awful that it will lay heavy on the stock for a long time to come. Plus, in the very near term you are going to have tax loss selling through year end by destroyed shareholders who will just give up and take the tax loss.

    Don't see any real bounce coming here, so I guess I'll be taking this one off my watch list. The shareholders here have my genuine sympathy.

  • Reply to

    How can AEZS use that $200 million tax carry ?

    by lamergreen22 Nov 16, 2014 5:19 AM
    james141492 james141492 Nov 16, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Actually the company's $200 million in NOL's aren't worth all that much.

    AEZS has never made a dime, and probably never will, so the NOL's are worthless to AEZS.

    Also section 382 of the tax code severely (AND I MEAN SEVERELY) restricts the use of the NOL's that a company has when a change of control occurs. Given the company's current market value and the current federal tax exempt rate ( which are the two factors that section 382 uses to restrict uses of NOL"s in a change of control), I would think that the net present value of the $200 million in NOL's that AEZS has would be around 3 or 4 million or so to any company that bought out AEZS.

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